Kerala Assembly Election 2021, Tanur profile: NSC's V Abdurahiman won seat in 2016, but opts out of upcoming polls

Tanur Assembly Election 2021 | Tanur was an IUML stronghold until 2016, when it elected its first LDF candidate to the Assembly. National Secular Conference (NSC) leader V Abdurahiman’s victory by 4,918 votes came as a shock to the Muslim League. IUML runner-up Abdurahiman Randathani was the then-sitting  MLA in Tanur and was seeking a third term in the office. In the months following the results, Tanur witnessed multiple inter-political clashes. A clash between the IUML and CPM turned violent in March 2017, resulting in many houses being set on fire. Several locals and policemen were injured in the incident. Both the LDF and UDF accused each other for the tension in the constituency. Though V Abdurahiman’s candidature helped LDF achieve the historic 2016 win in Tanur, the incumbent MLA has decided to opt-out of the race in 2021. V Abdurahiman, who is a former Congress leader, said his decision was personal and not related to the LDF.

Past election results and winners

In the 2016 Assembly election in Tanur, NSC’s V Abdurahiman received 64,472 votes (45.78 percent vote share) while his IUML rival Abdurahiman Randathani, managed to get 59,554 votes (42.29 percent vote share). The IUML’s vote share in the 2011 Assembly election in Tanur was 49.52 percent.

Total electors, voter turnout, population

Electors: Tanur has an electorate of 1,84,292, comprising 92,409 males, 91,881 females and two third-genders. There are 149 polling stations in this constituency. Voter turnout: Tanur recorded a voter turnout of 79.81 percent in 2016. Over 1.4 lakh of its voters (63,448 males and 77,043 females) exercised their franchise during the Assembly election. Population: The Tanur Assembly segment comprises Cheriyamundam, Niramaruthur, Ozhur, Ponmundam, Thanalur and Tanur panchayats. As per Census 2011, of Kerala’s 3.34 crore population, 54.73 percent are followers of Hinduism, followed by 26.56 percent followers of Islam and 18.38 percent Christians. Hinduism is the major religion in 13 of the state’s 14 districts. Malappuram is the only district in Kerala where Islam is the major religion with 70.24 percent of the district’s total population following the religion. The state has a tiny population that follows Jainism (0.01 percent), Sikhism (0.01 percent), Buddhism (0.01 percent) and 0.02 percent (other religions). Nearly 0.26 percent in the state didn’t state their religion during the 2011 Census.

Election date and timing

The Kerala Assembly/Niyama Sabha polls will be held on 6 April, 2021 , along with Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The day will also see phase three polls in Assam and West Bengal. The Kerala Legislative Assembly (Vidhan Sabha) has a total number of 140 seats, of which, 14 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Castes and two seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. The outgoing Assembly has eight female MLAs and rest 132 are male MLAs. The incumbent Kerala Niyamasabha will expire on 1 June, 2021.

Political alliances and Kerala

Elections in Kerala have traditionally been a contest between the UDF and the LDF with power swinging between the two groups. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Congress-led UDF had won 19 out of the state’s 20 Lok Sabha seats banking on incumbency against the ruling LDF. However, repeating a similar feat in the Assembly polls is going to be an uphill task for the UDF. The LDF has not only managed to overcome anti-incumbency in the 2020 local body polls but also managed to make inroads into UDF votebanks, particularly in Thrissur, Ernakulam, and Kottayam districts. The NDA, which is emerging as a third front in Kerala, will be hoping to increase its tally in the Assembly polls. However, given that the BJP-led NDA didn’t meet the expectations in the 2020 local body polls despite making gains, its ability to impact either the UDF’s or LDF’s prospects in the Assembly election remains unclear. Of the seven Assembly segments that are part of the Kasaragod Parliamentary constituency, five are with the CPM-led LDF (four with CPM, and one with CPI) while IUML, a constituent of the Congress-led UDF, is the second-largest party, winning the remaining two seats (Kasaragod and Manjeshwaram) in the last Assembly polls. BJP didn’t win any of the seven Assembly segments that are part of the Kasaragod Parliamentary constituency in 2016.