Kerala Assembly Election 2021, Nadapuram profile: CPI's EK Vijayan won second term in row in 2016, but drop in vote share likely worry

Nadapuram Assembly Election 2021 | Nadapuram, which comes under the Vatakara Lok Sabha constituency, has largely favoured Left parties in Assembly elections. Nadapuram will vote on  6 April, 2021 , along with 139 other constituencies in the state. The CPI, which is part of the CPM-led LDF alliance, has won 11 consecutive terms in office, while the UDF has only held runner-up positions since 1967. EV Kumaran, who represented Nadapuram in the Assembly from 1967 to 1970, is the only CPM candidate to have ever won the seat. Incumbent CPI MLA EK Vijayan won the 2011 election by defeating Congress leader VM Chandran by a margin of 7,546 votes. Though his 2016 re-election bid was successful, it came with a drop in his vote share. Since CPI has decided to implement its three-term policy for MLAs, EK Vijayan is eligible to contest in the upcoming election. However, some reports have said that Nadapuram is one of the constituencies where the CPI is considering to field a fresh face.  

Past election results and winners

In 2011, CPI’s EK Vijayan polled 72,078 votes (49.22 percent vote share), while Congress’ VM Chandran secured 64,229 votes (44.07 percent). The 2016 election saw Vijayan secure 74,742 votes, but his vote share dropped to 45.87 percent. Congress’s Praveenkumar emerged as the runner-up polling 69,983 votes (42.95 percent). Between these two elections, BJP saw an increase in its vote share. While the 2011 candidate Prakash Babu polled just 6,058 votes (4.14 percent), the 2016 candidate MP Rajan secured 14,493 votes (8.9 percent).

Total electors, voter turnout, population

Electors: Nadapuram has 2,09,034 registered voters who can vote in the upcoming Assembly election. There are 1,02,780 male voters, 1,06,249 female voters and five third-gender voters in the constituency. There are 188 polling stations in Nadapuram. Voter turnout: In 2011, 1.45 lakh of the 1.79 registered voters in Nadapuram exercised their franchise. The poll percent was 81.38 percent in 2011, which slightly dipped to 80.49 percent in 2016. A total of 1.62 lakh voters showed up to cast their vote in 2016, of whom 68,489 were male and 83,878 were female. Population: Nadapuram Assembly constituency comprises Chekkiad, Edacheri, Kavilumpara, Kayakkodi, Maruthonkara, Nadapuram, Narippatta, Thuneri, Valayam and Vanimel panchayats. As per Census 2011, of Kerala’s 3.34 crore population, 54.73 percent are followers of Hinduism, followed by 26.56 percent followers of Islam and 18.38 percent Christians. Hinduism is the major religion in 13 of the state’s 14 districts. Malappuram is the only district in Kerala where Islam is the major religion with 70.24 percent of the district’s total population following the religion. The state has a tiny population that follows Jainism (0.01 percent), Sikhism (0.01 percent), Buddhism (0.01 percent) and 0.02 percent (other religions). Nearly 0.26 percent in the state didn’t state their religion during the 2011 Census.

Election date and timing

The Kerala Assembly/Niyama Sabha polls will be held on  6 April, 2021 , along with Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The day will also see phase three polls in Assam and West Bengal. The Kerala Legislative Assembly (Vidhan Sabha) has a total number of 140 seats, of which, 14 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Castes and two seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. The outgoing Assembly has eight female MLAs and rest 132 are male MLAs. The current Kerala Niyamasabha session will expire on 1 June, 2021.

Political alliances in Kerala

Elections in Kerala have traditionally been a contest between the UDF and the LDF with power swinging between the two groups. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Congress-led UDF had won 19 out of the state’s 20 Lok Sabha seats banking on incumbency against the ruling LDF. However, repeating a similar feat in the Assembly polls is going to be an uphill task for the UDF. The LDF has not only managed to overcome anti-incumbency in the 2020 local body polls but also managed to make inroads into UDF votebanks, particularly in Thrissur, Ernakulam, and Kottayam districts. The NDA, which is emerging as a third front in Kerala, will be hoping to increase its tally in the Assembly polls. However, given that the BJP-led NDA didn’t meet the expectations in the 2020 local body polls despite making gains, its ability to impact either the UDF’s or LDF’s prospects in the Assembly election remains unclear. Of the seven Assembly segments that are part of the Kasaragod Parliamentary constituency, five are with the CPM-led LDF (four with CPM, and one with CPI) while IUML, a constituent of the Congress-led UDF, is the second-largest party, winning the remaining two seats (Kasaragod and Manjeshwaram) in the last Assembly polls. BJP didn’t win any of the seven Assembly segments that are part of the Kasaragod Parliamentary constituency in 2016.