Assembly polls: Is BJP on a better wicket in Haryana than Maharashtra?

In a couple of days, we could be seeing some opinion polls indicating which way the wind is blowing as Maharashtra and Haryana go to the polls on 15 October. The only poll conducted so far, by CVoter, has predicted hung assemblies in both states, but with the BJP emerging as the single largest party in both states. [caption id=“attachment_1722689” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image. AFP.[/caption] But nobody should presume the voter has made up her mind. In both states, the voter is spoilt for choice - which means she is bound to be confused. This implies that the undecided vote could go in any direction. The stakes are high for every party - not least for the BJP which will be fighting on its own in both states. The Congress will be fighting to improve on its Lok Sabha showing, and the Shiv Sena will be fighting to retain its edge as the single largest regional party in Maharashtra. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will be fighting to prove that it is stronger than the Congress in the state. A few tentative points are worth making even before we know what the next polls will decide. One, anti-incumbency is going to play a big role in both states, but given the split in challenger parties, if the base Congress vote of 15-20 percent holds, the party won’t do very badly. Bringing in Rahul and Sonia Gandhi may not make a difference, since Congress has identifiable leaders in both places. Two, the BJP’s main focus will be on proving that it is the senior partner in Maharashtra, and hence it was not wrong in pushing for parity with the Sena. Any seat count above 80-90 in Maharashtra will have long-term consequences for the old Sena-BJP alliance as the Sena will not ultimately play second fiddle. It may move closer to Raj Thackeray’s outfit the way Nitish Kumar swallowed his pride and hitched up with Lalu Prasad after a drubbing in the Lok Sabha polls. Or it may choose to support the BJP from the outside to retain some leverage, forcing the BJP to seek other allies if they have numbers on their side. Three, the NCP’s plan will be to prove that it can do better than the Congress. If it tops the Congress numbers, it will seek to permanently become the senior partner in the alliance. For Ajit Pawar, Deputy Chief Minister in the last Democratic Front government, this is a very critical battle. Four, the interesting thing about the Maharashtra election is that all parties, barring the BJP, have clear CM candidates in Uddhav Thackeray, Ajit Pawar, Prithviraj Chavan and Raj Thackeray. The BJP would have had one in Gopinath Munde, but he died in a car accident in Delhi soon after the Lok Sabha polls. Now it has to depend on Modi to see if he can deliver some extra votes. Five, since both Haryana and Maharashtra are involved in four- and five-horse races, above a 25 percent critical vote share, parties will reap disproportionate benefits in terms of seats. Something like UP and Bihar could happen in both states, but the gainer could be anybody. Many assembly seats could be decided by margins of 1,000-2,000 votes. Six, the BJP and the Modi charisma may work better in Haryana than in Maharashtra due to the Prime Minister’s Hindi connect. Haryana is close to Delhi and who rules Delhi impacts choices in Haryana. If the BJP is hopeful of a majority, Haryana is its best bet. In Maharashtra, the voter seems perplexed by the collapse of alliances she expected would endure. This means the number of undecided voters may be higher than usual, and even late opinion polls may not offer the right trend. Seven, even though a hung assembly will be painted as a big loss for Modi, it is worth remembering that before this year, the BJP was not a major contender in Haryana and was a junior partner in Maharashtra. Its success should thus be gauged from what it was, and how it fares this time – not from the perspective of an absolute win. Reports are that Modi’s rallies in non-Metro Maharashtra are well-attended. My own guess is that the BJP will do better in rural Maharashtra than urban Maharashtra – contrary to normal expectations – because Modi may swing the vote in rural areas with his OBC background. The crowds seem more responsive to Modi outside Mumbai. In the cities, the two Senas are fighting for dear life and will use the Marathi manoos card to edge the “Gujarati-led” BJP out. If Munde had been around, the BJP would not have faced this problem, but now all bets are off. So, at the cost of having egg on my face on 19 October, these are my current predictions: BJP majority or near majority in Haryana, and BJP emerging as single largest party in Maharashtra. The BJP may surprise more in rural Maharashtra than in urban areas.