BJP ahead in Maha, Haryana, but missed certain win by ditching allies: Survey

It is early days yet, but the first opinion poll by CVoter for NewsX and India TV seems to point towards a hung assembly both in Haryana and Maharashtra. Even before the starter’s gun has been fired, and assuming the CVoter poll gives a flavour of which way people are predisposed to vote, in Maharashtra the BJP will emerge as the largest party with 93 seats, its estranged former partner Shiv Sena with 59, the NCP with 47, the Congress with 40, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena with 27, and others with 22. The midway mark in the Maharashtra assembly is 144. [caption id=“attachment_1741087” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  According to the survey, the BJP is ahead in both the states but missed a certain win by ditching allies.[/caption] In Haryana, the BJP again leads with 33, followed by the resurgent INLD of convicted former CM Om Prakash Chautala with 28, the Congress with 16, the HJC-HJP third front with 9 and four independents. This, of course, is the scenario when the big guns of the BJP, and especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have not begun their campaigning as yet. The final vote shares and seats may be entirely different for the polls. Sample surveys are notoriously wrong in new scenarios where there are four- and five-party races of the kind we saw in UP in the Lok Sabha polls, where the BJP swept the state. So predictions made now may be way off the mark if small changes in votes can decide winners and losers on voting day. But some tentative conclusions can be drawn, subject to corrections over the next 10 days as more trends are available. First, and most obvious, the BJP-Sena alliance, if it had remained intact, would have won in a canter. Ditto for the BJP-HJP alliance in Haryana. Second, this does not however mean that the BJP was wrong to break its alliances. The poll shows that the BJP is indeed the stronger party in both states, and the junior parties were wrong to presume they needed more seats. Third, given the first-past-the-post system, a multi-horse race may tilt strongly towards the early leader or the biggest challenger combine - with third and fourth alliances biting the dust. This means BJP, Sena and INLD are the ones who could grab a lion’s share of the floating vote and change the ultimate outcomes. Fourth, the NCP, which is marginally ahead of the Congress in Maharashtra, also appears to have been right in separating. It could emerge as the key opposition party or preferred partner for the party with the largest number of seats - which is likely to be the BJP as of now. This means the BJP can choose between the Sena and the NCP. The BJP may also be able to woo Raj Thackeray if he gets his predicted 27 seats and the BJP ends up with more that 120 seats on counting day. Fifth, in Haryana, the BJP’s lead over the INLD is narrow at 33-28. This state could thus swing either way. Sixth, independents - 22 of them in Maharashtra - may pay a huge role in post-poll horse-trading or government formation. Money will play a role in both states to bring in the marginal legislator. If the CVoter poll is an indicator of how the final results turn out, the BJP can be seen as having thrown away a sure win with alliances in favour of going it alone. But the jury will be out on whether it did the right thing. If it was mere hubris which caused it to break up with partners, it was the wrong thing to do. But if this was an effort to build the party for the future, it was absolutely the right thing to do. Only Modi and Amit Shah know the real reasons why they broke both alliances.