Yogi's popularity, Bharat Jodo Yatra: How 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be toughest for Samajwadi Party

Uttar Pradesh’s politics are heating up in the run-up to the 2024 general elections. Mulayam Singh Yadav’s absence from Uttar Pradesh’s political scene is the most significant change. At a time when the popularity of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is increasing inside the Bharatiya Janata Party as a politician and in the state as an administrator, the opposition led by Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav is appearing as soft. In the meantime, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is currently in Uttar Pradesh on his ambitious Bharat Jodo Yatra. Congress endeavours to revitalise the organisation in the state. The politics of UP are never at rest. With Home Minister Amit Shah’s announcement that the Ram Temple of Ayodhya will open on 1 January, 2024, the electoral battlefield of Uttar Pradesh is set to witness the battle. Vote banks based on religious communities and castes are highly influential in Uttar Pradesh politics. The Bharatiya Janata Party has gradually succeeded in gaining the trust of all communities. Similarly, the Yogi government’s development efforts and the evolving picture of law and order have had an electoral impact on the BJP. While the opposition believes that the majority of chief minister Adityanath’s popularity is due to BJP propaganda, the Samajwadi party-led opposition has not yet been able to provide a credible counter to this narrative. After Mulayam Singh Yadav’s passing, the Samajwadi party fought and won the Mayapuri Lok Sabha constituency. In contrast, the party suffered crushing defeats in the Rampur and Azamgarh Lok Sabha constituencies. Under the leadership of Mulayam Singh, these constituencies were bastions of the SP. In the public’s estimation, Akhilesh Yadav is yet to take decisive action in response to his party’s recent setbacks. Yogi factor Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is one of the first politicians in Uttar Pradesh to achieve two consecutive victories with an adequate majority. The Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh neither seeks nor desires an alliance in the future. This has made Yogi not only the most prominent figure in Uttar Pradesh but also the most prominent face of the BJP across India. The success of Uttar Pradesh has provided Yogi Adityanath with a sort of third place within the BJP in terms of electoral campaigns. UP’s law and order situation was one of the most significant accomplishments of the Adityanath government. Under the administrations of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, law and order in Uttar Pradesh deteriorated. This change has inspired confidence among state residents, and Yogi Adityanath is now irreplaceable. Similarly, the Yogi Adityanath administration has been implementing several welfare programmes, such as PM Kissan Nidhi. He has effectively painted a picture of his government’s efforts to attract large industries that will generate employment in the state. Yogi Adityanath has also worked tirelessly to spread the Hindutva ideology throughout Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh has become the epicentre of Hindutva politics, from the Ram Temple to the Kashi Corridor and from Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After the passing of Mulayam Singh Yadav, the Socialist Party and the opposition in general lack a unifier who can unite all parties prior to the general elections of 2024. Mayawati, the leader of the BSP, Azam Khan, one of the most prominent Muslim leaders in the SP, and other senior opposition leaders have lost their credibility. In this circumstance, Akhilesh Yadav must unite every faction within and beyond his political strongholds. Unfortunately, the opposition has been unable to produce a new narrative to counter the Hindutava of the BJP or the government’s claims. Akhilesh’s obstacle After Mulayam Singh Yadav’s death in 2024, Akhilesh Yadav’s greatest challenge will be forming an alliance. In the 2017 assembly elections, the SP allied with Congress; in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the SP allied with the BSP. However, in both of these coalitions, Congress and the BSP benefited from the SP’s voter base. In both of these elections, however, the Samajwadi Party was unable to benefit from these alliances. Currently, the Samajwadi Party is allied with the Rashtriya Lok Dal, but before 2024, Akhilesh will have to decide whether the party will form an alliance with Congress or the BSP. To defeat the BJP in general elections in Uttar Pradesh in 2024, the Samajwadi Party will need Dalit support. Despite numerous discussions with the leader of the Bhim Army, Chandrashekar Azad, no alliance was formed. In the most recent assembly elections, the party was unable to gain ground among Dalits. This difficulty is also a major concern for Akhilesh in the run-up to 2024. Likewise, the Samajwadi Party is losing Muslim support, and Mayawati is attempting to take away the support of the community. Under the leadership of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Muslims comprised a significant portion of the Samajwadi Party’s voter base, but this demographic has since shifted to the BSP and Congress. In Uttar Pradesh, there are 21% Dalit voters and 20% Muslim voters. Without the support of these two communities, Akhilesh Yadav’s efforts to corner the BJP will be limited. Congress efforts for revival Bharat Jodo Yatra led by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is currently passing through Uttar Pradesh. Before 2024, the party is exerting its greatest efforts for a revival. Priyanka Gandhi, the leader of the Congress, led the Uttar Pradesh campaign in the most recent assembly elections, but she was unsuccessful. With the Bharat Jodo Yatra, however, Congress anticipates a comeback. The grand old party has not had a strong voter base in Uttar Pradesh for many years. However, the opposition will be impacted by the party’s revival, as it will steal votes from the Samajwadi Party-led opposition. The Congress has expressed interest in forming an alliance with the Samajwadi Party. Whether or not Akhilesh Yadav and the newly elected president of the Congress, Mallikarjun Kharge, decide to work together is a significant challenge. Here, both parties will feel the absence of Mulayam Singh Yadav, a politician who was adept at forming coalitions. Recently, during the Bharat Jodo yatra, while the Samajwadi Party announced it would not participate, its alliance partner RLD did. As a result, the question of how much influence Akhilesh Yadav has over his alliance partners has become crucial. This indicates that there may be future opportunities for these parties to join forces. India’s general election in 2024 will be crucial, there is no doubt. Uttar Pradesh plays the most significant role in national elections because it has the most seats. Similarly, many prominent BJP leaders, such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, run for office in Uttar Pradesh. In the absence of a strong leader and one of the most credible political faces of Uttar Pradesh, his father Mulayam Singh Yadav, it will be difficult for the Samajwadi Party and Akhilesh Yadav to compete with the BJP in the 2024 election. Whether or not Akhilesh successfully assumes his father’s position in the absence of Mulayam will be an intriguing phenomenon to observe. The author is a Columnist and Doctoral Research Scholar In Media & Politics. He tweets @sayantan_gh. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.