Worried after Nepal plane crash? Remember, air travel is safe, but can be made safer: Here’s how

At least 68 people were killed in Nepal’s worst aeroplane crash in 30 years. Seventy-two people — four crew members and 68 passengers — were on board Yeti Airlines Flight 691, an ATR 72-500 operating a domestic flight from Tribhuvan International Airport to Pokhara International Airport, when it crashed near Pokhara on 15 January 2023. On 6 November 2022, Precision Air Flight 494, an ATR 42-500 flying a domestic flight from Dar es Salaam, crashed into Lake Victoria while attempting to land at Bukoba Airport, Tanzania. Of the 43 people onboard, 19 died. Earlier, on 31 October 2015, Russian Kogalymavia Flight 9268 Airbus 321 crashed 23 minutes after take-off from Sharm-el Sheikh in Egypt killing all 224 on-board. While ISIS claimed to have shot it down, the cause is still unknown. Each air crash makes headlines. The world is yet to recover from the mysterious disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 over the Gulf of Thailand on 8 March 2014 and Flight 17 that was shot down over Ukraine on 17 July 2014 killing all on-board. On 11 September 2001, over 3,000 died when four airliners were flown into the two World Trade Centre towers and Pentagon in one of the worst set of air disasters. Indians are still fresh from the memories of Air India Emperor Kanishka Boeing 747 being blown up over Ireland through a bomb planted in the luggage by a Khalistani militant killing 329 onboard. The world’s deadliest mid-air collision ever took place near Delhi on 12 November 1996 when Saudia Flight 763 collided with Air Kazakhstan IL 76, killing 349 people. Cause for some will always remain a mystery. The first aircraft accident in which 200 or more people died occurred on 3 March 1974, when 346 died in the crash of Turkish Airlines Flight 981. As of April 2020, there have been 33 aviation incidents in which 200 or more people died. The top 10 countries with the highest number of fatal civil airliner accidents from 1945 to 2021 are the United States, Russia, Canada, Brazil, Colombia, UK, France, Indonesia, Mexico, and India. The UK is noted to have the highest number of air crashes in Europe, with a total of 110 air crashes within the time period, and Indonesia is the highest in Asia at 104, followed by India at 95. The largest loss of life on board a single aircraft is the 520 fatalities in the 1985 Japan Airlines Flight 123 accident, the largest loss of life in multiple aircraft in a single accident is the 583 fatalities in the two Boeing 747’s that collided in the 1977 Tenerife airport disaster, while the largest loss of life overall in a collective incident is the 2,996 fatalities in the coordinated terrorist destruction of airplanes and occupied buildings in the 9/11 attacks. In 2020, pre-Covid, airlines carried 4.7 billion passengers. Post-Covid figures are fast catching up. As per International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) civil air passengers are increasing 5 percent per year and by 2030 they are expected to be 6 billion. Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America each have around 28 per cent share of the air traffic. Airbus had 661 aircraft deliveries to 84 customers in 2022. Airbus’ end December 2022 order backlog stood at 7,239 aircraft. Boeing reported 774 commercial orders last year. As of 31 December 2022, the commercial airplanes backlog is 4,578 jets. With such large numbers, it is important to understand the air safety issues.

The Aircraft Crashes Record Office (ACRO), a non-government organisation based in Geneva, indicates that in the last 10 years there have seen fewer than 150 accidents a year, compared to over 200 a year a decade before. Annual fatalities have been less than 1,000 in six of the last ten years, with 2013 experiencing the lowest fatalities in the last 70 years at 265. At least 56 per cent of all accidents are attributed to pilot/human error, 17 per cent to technical flaw, 13 per cent to weather and remaining to miscellaneous causes like Air Traffic control error (4 per cent), mid-air collisions, sabotage, bird strike, highjacking, shooting down, etc. Boeing study over the last 50 years indicates that most onboard fatalities occur in accidents during approach and landing (60 per cent), Take off (12 per cent) and rest in other phases or causes. The odds of at least one fatality on your flight is 1:3.4 million (1:10 million in top 40 airlines). Good reason to choose a reputed airline. There is a 25 per cent chance of surviving even a fatal crash. At least 53 per cent chances of survival when aircraft ditches in water. The good news is that over 95 per cent of people in US plane crashes, between 1983 and 2000, survived. According to a study by the European Transport Safety Council, plane crashes technically have a 90 per cent survivability rate, and this figure is increasing, largely thanks to modern aircraft design, which features enough exits to allow for a full passenger evacuation in around 90 seconds. Recent proof of plane crash survival came in October 2021 when a Boston-bound private plane taking off at Houston Executive Airport struck a fence and burst into flames. All 21 people on-board survived. In 2018, all 103 passengers survived a flaming plane crash in Mexico when strong winds brought down Aeromexico flight 2431. In over 100 years of implementation, aviation safety has improved considerably. The two major manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus, still produce heavy passenger aircraft. Both place a huge emphasis on the use of aviation safety equipment, which in itself is now a billion-dollar industry. A poor safety record in the aviation industry is a threat to corporate survival. Some major safety devices now required in commercial aircraft are, evacuation slides for rapid passenger exit from an aircraft in an emergency situation; advanced avionics, incorporating computerised auto-recovery and alert systems; turbine engines with improved durability and failure containment mechanisms; landing gear that can be lowered even after loss of power and hydraulics. In an effort to prevent incidents such as the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, a new standard has been issued by ICAO in 2016 requiring all commercial aircraft to report their position every 15 minutes to air traffic controllers regardless of the country of origin. It is part of a long-term plan, called the Global Aeronautical Distress and Safety System (GADSS), which will require new aircraft to be equipped with data broadcast systems that are in constant contact with air traffic controllers. The GADSS is similar to the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) used for maritime safety. The Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) collects voluntarily submitted aviation safety incident/situation reports from pilots, controllers and others. The ASRS uses reports to identify system deficiencies, issue alert messages, and produce two publications, CALLBACK, and ASRS Directline. The collected information is made available to the public, and is used by the FAA, NASA and other organisations working in research and flight safety. The Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives (B3A), a non-government organisation based in Geneva, compiles statistics on aviation accidents of aircraft capable of carrying more than six passengers, excluding helicopters, balloons, and combat aircraft. The ACRO only considers crashes in which the aircraft has suffered such damage that it is removed from service. According to ACRO, recent years have been considerably safer for aviation, with fewer than 170 incidents every year between 2009 and 2017, compared to as many as 226 as recently as 1998. The annual fatalities figure is less than 1,000 for ten of the fourteen years between 2007 and 2020, the year 2017 experiencing the lowest number of fatalities, at 399, since the end of World War II. In India, until 30 May 2012, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation investigated incidents involving aircraft. Since then, the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau has taken over investigation responsibilities. Measured on a passenger-distance calculation, air travel is the safest form of transportation available. This statistic is used by the insurance industry when calculating insurance rates for air travel. For every billion kilometres travelled, trains have a fatality rate that is 12 times higher than that of air travel, and the fatality rate for automobiles is 62 times greater than for air travel. By contrast, for every billion journeys taken, buses are the safest form of transportation; using this measure, air travel is three times more dangerous than car transportation, and almost 30 times more dangerous than travelling by bus. Some studies have claimed that passengers sitting at the back of an aeroplane are 40 per cent more likely to survive a crash than those sitting at the front. The Time magazine analysed airplane accident data between 1980 and 2015 and found that passengers seated in the back of the plane had a 32 per cent fatality rate, compared to 38 percent and 39 percent for those seated in the front and middle respectively. But both Boeing and the FAA claim that there is no “safest” seat. Just because the flight data recorder is usually mounted in the aircraft’s empennage (tail section) where it is more likely to survive a severe crash, doesn’t make rear seats safer. Arguably, irrespective of where you are seated, since the speed at which a passenger exits a crashed plane dictates their chance of survival, the closer they are to an exit the better their chances are. University of Greenwich professor Ed Galea analysed seating charts from more than 100 plane crashes and found that sitting within five rows of an exit increased passengers’ survival rates. You may have heard a hundred safety briefings before, but it’s always worth paying attention to every safety briefing. Aircraft and instructions vary. I always double check where the nearest exit is, and remind my co-passenger about it. Also one must practice the bracing instructions for the time of crash as given in safety guides. Objects flying through the cabin can also cause secondary impact, which is why passengers are asked to put their bags under the seat in front of them. I always keep my seatbelt fastened throughout the flight as this would prevent me from being thrown around the aircraft in the event of turbulence or a crash. Interestingly another study says that tight-fitting attire is preferable to loose-fitting fabrics that could snag on fixtures and fittings when trying to exit a crashed plane. Full-length clothing could potentially protect the skin from fire, which is typical in a plane crash. Durable jeans or sportswear such as leggings made from less-flammable fabric such as cotton are ideal. Stilettos are best left in the luggage. As safety cards point out, sharp heals can damage inflatable slides. Are you still a nervous flier? If so, there’s an educational organisation in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. Dynamic Advanced Training specialises in giving people the skills to survive a plane crash. Instead of thinking about all the ways that you can die, learn the ways that you can survive. Advances in technology have made a big difference in safety and passenger comfort. Weather radars, good autopilots, collision avoidance systems, glass cockpits, more reliable engines, greatly support and reduce pilot load and improve safety. For better safety, it is recommended to fly non-stop flights to reduce exposure; larger aircraft have better survival statistics; attention to pre-flight briefings have saved lives; keep seat-belts fastened all the time; cabin crew are more for safety and less for serving. There is one accident per 3 million departures, so cheer-up airliners are very safe. The writer is Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.