Winter and war: Will Russia continue to target economic assets to weaken Ukrainian morale?

The latest developments in the Ukraine War are the statements emanating regarding the possibility for negotiations. President Putin has stated in an interview aired on Sunday by Rossiya 1 the State Television that “Russia is ready to negotiate with all parties involved in the war in Ukraine but Kyiv and its Western backers have refused to engage in talks.” On the other hand, in a telephone conversation with Prime Minister Modi, the Ukrainian President Zelenskky had also discussed the possibility of peace talks. “I had a phone call with PM Narendra Modi and wished for a successful G20 presidency,” Zelenskky wrote on Twitter. “It was on this platform that I announced the peace formula and now I count on India’s participation in its implementation. I also thanked for humanitarian aid and support in the UN,” India has remained consistent in its stance for peace and an immediate end to hostilities between the two countries. India has always supported any peace efforts. Even earlier the Prime Minister had stated that, “today’s era is not of war” and India has always been vocal of diplomacy and dialogue, being the path to solve this defining crisis. There is no doubt that India is in a unique position as it is a friend of both Russia and the West and could emerge as a key mediator. The invasion of Ukraine has no doubt triggered the most deadly European conflict since World War II and the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. However, what needs to be seen is the willingness from both parties to step down from their maximalist positions. This can be speculated to mean that the Ukrainians will want the Russians out of their country, to include Crimea which was annexed in 2014 and the freedom for it to choose to join NATO. Whereas, Russia would want a guarantee that Ukraine does not join NATO and that the area up to the Dnieper River remains in its control and more importantly it remains the maritime power in the Black Sea controlling the ports in the region without the possibility of any NATO fleet being stationed there. The positions can be summed up by ‘the Kremlin saying it will fight until all its aims are achieved while Kyiv says it will not rest until every Russian soldier is ejected from all of its territory’. TASS Russian news agency quoted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying; “Our proposals for the demilitarization and denazification of the territories controlled by the regime, the elimination of threats to Russia’s security emanating from there, including our new lands, are well known to the enemy.” “We are ready to negotiate with everyone involved about acceptable solutions, but that is up to them - we are not the ones refusing to negotiate, they are,” is what President Putin told Rossiya 1 State Television. In response Mykhailo Podolyak, an Advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy tweeted that “Russia single-handedly attacked Ukraine and is killing citizens”. “Russia doesn’t want negotiations, but tries to avoid responsibility.” Currently, Russian attacks on power stations have left millions without electricity, and President Zelenskyy said Moscow would aim to make the last few days of 2022 dark and difficult.“Russia has lost everything it could this year. … I know darkness will not prevent us from leading the occupiers to new defeats. But we have to be ready for any scenario,” is what he said in a video address. The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff said there was still a threat of air and missile strikes on critical infrastructure across the country. Russian troops had shelled dozens of towns and positions along the front line, it said in a Facebook post. Putin accused the West of trying to cleave Russia apart. “I believe that we are acting in the right direction, we are defending our national interests, the interests of our citizens, our people. And we have no other choice but to protect our citizens,” Putin said. Asked if the geopolitical conflict with the West was approaching a dangerous level, President Putin said: “I don’t think it’s so dangerous.” He said the West had begun the conflict in 2014 by toppling a pro-Russian Ukrainian president in the Maidan Revolution protests. Soon after, Russia annexed Crimea and Russian-backed separatist forces began fighting in Eastern Ukraine. “Actually, the fundamental thing here is the policy of our geo-political opponents which is aimed at pulling apart Russia, historical Russia,” according to President Putin . He also called the conflict in Ukraine, a “special military operation,” as a watershed moment when Moscow finally stood up to a Western bloc that he says has been seeking to destroy Russia since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Marshal winter and Russia-Ukraine war President Putin described Russia as a “unique country” and said the vast majority of its people were united in wanting to defend it. He said “As for the main part - the 99.9 percent of our citizens, our people who are ready to give everything for the interests of the Motherland – there is nothing unusual for me here.” “This just once again convinces me that Russia is a unique country and that we have exceptional people. This has been confirmed throughout the history of Russia’s existence.” What is also well known is the effect of Marshal Winter on a conflict in this region. With heavy snows and sub zero temperatures both men and material are driven to the ultimate level of endurance while operating in such a harsh environment. As regards equipment , the basic problems relate to sub optimal functioning of armaments, engines, and batteries. Fog and blizzards create their own set of challenges for troops operating and manoeuvring in the open and at times working on the equipment due to the cold is extremely difficult. Logistics pose its own challenges, special clothing, oils and rations are also required to equip and sustain the troops. Hence, this period has traditionally been seen as a time of consolidation of gains rather than that of making any fresh moves. Historically, both Napoleon and the Germans were beaten back from Russia at the outset of winter. Though there are reports regarding the Russians getting more conscripts and building up its arms supply for another offensive with the possibility of Belarus being used to open up another front, this seems unlikely in this weather though nothing can be ruled out in war. The options regarding the outcome of the conflict which can be considered are that Ukraine, consolidates itself in the winter and uses this period to build up its stocks of ammunition as well as train its troops on the new equipment being received from the West and thereafter renews its counter offensive once the snows melt and then concentrates on evicting the Russians from the area in the East. But, while this may be most encouraging for Ukraine and the West. And, though there is no doubting the national resilience exhibited, the question remains on Ukraine’s ability to keep the initiative and sustain the momentum. The other possibility is that the Russian Army stabilises the front lines over the winter months, while building new battalions with freshly mobilised recruits. The Russian utilise this period to consolidate their gains, build up the stockpiles of ammunition, carry out replacement of their fleet and keep the pressure on by engaging Ukraine with long range vectors and the threat of escalating the conflict and then renew an offensive after the winter . They would however need to draw lessons as to why they have struggled . They need to learn what went wrong as far as their tactics, techniques and procedures are concerned and ensure remedial measures. Probable scenario The most probable scenario presently seems to be a stalemate which is a consolidation by both countries on the lines occupied by them. In an Indian context one could draw a parallel between the Line of Control which has remained in place for over seventy five years, physically occupied by troops and at times active in terms of firing by not only small arms but also by artillery. The possible peace could hinge on recognition of this line by both sides. Of course it will take a heavy toll as far as deployment and sustenance of troops is concerned and will be a stand down from the maximalist positions by both sides but it could lead to a form of ‘armed peace’ . The statement from the Russian Foreign Minister, “The point is simple: Fulfil them for your own good. Otherwise, the issue will be decided by the Russian Army,” is clear but the timelines have not been specified and hence it is likely that strikes by air and precision guided munitions will continue to cause degradation and destruction along with minor skirmishes . Whereas any major ground offensive by the Russians is unlikely unless there is a considerable weakening. The Russian Commander, General Sergei Surovikin, appears to be more capable than his predecessors and has launched the vigorous aerial campaign that has destroyed much of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure—a civilian-centred tactic. Russian strikes on Ukrainian power stations will not affect the population in the winter but will also cost Ukraine; foreign investors, after all, are unlikely to return to the country when there is unreliable power. Even if the attacks do not keep out investors, they will still prove economically costly for Kyiv by stopping the Ukrainian power exports that began in July 2022. It is therefore expected that the Russians are likely to continue to target key infrastructure with the aim of lowering the morale of the population and weakening Ukraine economically. The challenge lies in not only stopping the conflict but also disengaging. Peace negotiations would perforce need to cover the entire spectrum of cessation of hostilities, disengagement and thereafter de-induction. These three seem unlikely as both the Russians and Ukrainians have demonstrated a resilience in continuing with the conflict which is also being manifested in their rhetoric. The author is a retired Major General of Indian army. Views expressed are personal. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.