Why political instability in South Asia is a concern for the Indo-Pacific

Over the last two decades, countries in South Asia have tried to sustain their democracies with much help from the international community amid internal and external challenges. However, efforts made in this direction did not yield substantial results, and in recent years democracy is in sharp decline, threatening not only the future of democracy but also broader geostrategic interests. Political instability in South Asia The recent arrest of Imran Khan, the popular, not to say populist leader, in Pakistan, is a strong example of the above-mentioned trend. It is well known that Pakistan’s security apparatus, mainly the ISI, is pulling the strings behind the scenes, manipulating the democratic process to cement its hold on the country. The current political debacle began in April last year, when then-prime minister Imran Khan lost a no-confidence motion, clearing the way for Shehbaz Sharif to replace him. Sharif has demonstrated his loyalty to the military and has exhibited a tough line against protestors. He denounced Khan’s media campaign against the army and ordered the authorities to take action against the individuals involved in it. He has previously pledged to prosecute anti-government protestors in military courts as well. Since then, Pakistan has been mired in political instability, and fell into its worst economic crisis, with inflation reaching more than 30 per cent and a deal with the IMF is still not secured. As Pakistan is nearing general elections, scheduled for October this year, Khan was found guilty in a corruption trial and sentenced to three years in prison. In addition, he was banned from politics for five years, clearing the main obstacle of military loyalists in the upcoming elections. Nonetheless, Khan’s popularity is still high and his supporters claim that the government is trying to avoid elections, following a statement by the minister of justice, saying a new census must be completed and new boundaries to the constitution need to be drawn, a process that will take at least four months. In upcoming months, the political crisis would likely entrench the current government’s position. This prospect would certainly not shift the negative path that Pakistan has been set down and will increase public unrest and violence. A crisis in Pakistan raises fears regarding its nuclear arsenal, potential proliferation efforts, and possibly increased provocations against India. Similar fears of instability have arisen in regard to Bangladesh as it heads for general elections in January 2024. Although the case of Bangladesh is different as there’s no fear of a military coup, and the country is performing very well economically, political tensions remain high. The opposition in the country led by the BNP is calling to boycott the elections and has organised several rallies against the Awami League government, arguing that the elections will not be free and fair. In order to address such concerns, the Awami League, which has ruled the country since 2008, has reiterated its commitment to participatory elections and invited foreign observers to oversee the elections; In addition, the US and others are taking measures to secure the democratic process in Bangladesh and through an open dialogue with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and other parties. Yet, the BNP continues to boycott the elections until a caretaker government takes over. Drawing from the lessons of the 2006 caretaker government – which was backed by the military – an unconstitutional measure of this kind would have a potentially devastating impact on the economic progress the country has made over the last decade, and would further erode democracy in Bangladesh. Such a scenario in which Bangladesh will move away from democracy to political chaos would be also devastating in the context of Indo-Pacific and superpower competition calculations – making it difficult for India, the US, Europe, and Japan to work with Bangladesh. So far, under Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh has been able to maintain a balanced, multifaceted foreign policy and weather pressure from the US and China. The collapse of democracy in Bangladesh will make things easier for China to expand its influence in the region, adding to the already deepening Chinese roots in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Nepal. What can the international community do? Beyond the virtue of protecting civil and human rights, democracy has a geostrategic significance. In light of the rivalry between the US and China, there is an effort to divide countries between the democratic camp and the autocratic one. In this context, the erosion of democracy in South Asia might benefit China much more than the US and presents real challenges for the Indo-Pacific grouping in its engagement with emerging markets in the region. Therefore, international support of democracy is crucial, but its approach to the matter should be a delicate one, taking utmost care to avoid repeating mistakes of the past. Thus, the international community should protect the democratic process by sending pre-elections review delegations, observers to monitor, offer pragmatic cooperation and design ways for effective engagement through regional and multilateral groupings as an incentive to stay on the path of democracy. It should top the agenda of the Indo-Pacific partners, the EU and other middle powers with stakes in the region. The author is a former director of the Asian Affairs department in the Israeli NSC for a decade, mostly under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (2012-2022). Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.