Why Nitish Kumar's rift with Opposition alliance may widen despite Bihar caste census masterstroke

In the realm of Indian politics, Mandal politics has once again taken centre stage, with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar playing a pivotal role. On October 2nd of this year, the Mahagathbandhan government, led by Nitish Kumar in Bihar, released the much-anticipated caste census of the state. Bihar’s historical significance in Mandal politics, which spearheaded the social justice movement for India’s Other Backward Classes (OBCs) during the late 1980s, cannot be overstated. Caste-based politics have always held sway in India, particularly in the Hindi heartland. Therefore, Nitish Kumar’s timing in releasing the caste census carries profound implications, especially in the lead-up to the 2024 general elections.

There’s no denying that Kumar’s move to unveil the caste census is a masterstroke, strategically timed to bolster his political standing. However, its impact on his relationship with the INDIA bloc, the opposition alliance, remains uncertain.

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Significance of Bihar caste census numbers

The Bihar caste census results are of the utmost significance, showing that the state has a population of over 36 per cent of Extremely Backward Class (EBC), followed by about 27 per cent of OBC, about 20 per cent of Scheduled Castes (SCs), more than 1 per cent of Scheduled Tribes (STs), and roughly 15 per cent of unreserved people.

Caste-based identity politics has long been the cornerstone of social justice for backward castes in the Hindi heartland. Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, among others, have thrived on caste-centric politics, with OBCs at the core of their agendas.

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Following the release of Bihar’s caste census data, it’s evident that demands for increased OBC reservations will surge among opposition political parties. It’s also likely that they will call for separate reservation criteria for Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs), potentially challenging the Supreme Court’s 50 per cent reservation verdict.

In India, no political party can afford to disregard caste dynamics. The rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, has somewhat marginalised caste-based Mandal politics in favour of a focus on welfare, Hindutva, and nationalism. This has given rise to the dichotomy of Mandal versus Kamandal, a debate between caste-based politics and Hindutva politics. At this juncture, it is paramount to assess whether the politics of India, post-Bihar caste census, will usher in Mandal politics 2.0. This will depend significantly on the unity of opposition political parties and their stance towards Nitish Kumar.

Opposition Alliance Vs Nitish Kumar

In recent months, the spotlight in Indian politics has been on the formation of an opposition alliance to challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming 2024 general elections. Congress, at the forefront of this endeavour, strategically positioned Nitish Kumar as a central figure within this alliance. Kumar engaged in a series of consultations with various opposition parties, delicately crafting a grand plan to bring together a spectrum of political entities, each with its own distinct goals and regional commitments.

However, the landscape shifted following the Karnataka assembly elections, where Congress achieved a significant victory. This year, another set of assembly elections is on the horizon, and there’s a strong likelihood that Congress will perform well in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh. Notably, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh already have Congress-led governments in place, and the party claims a formidable presence in Madhya Pradesh. As a result, Congress has once again seized the central role within the opposition alliance.

In recent meetings of the opposition alliance, it has become evident that all is not harmonious within the India bloc, of which Nitish Kumar is a key member. Many political observers have speculated that, like several others, Nitish Kumar harbours aspirations of becoming the opposition’s prime ministerial candidate. Given his extensive political and administrative experience and his strong presence in the Hindi heartland, a significant section of political pundits saw him as a natural fit for the role. Although Kumar never openly acknowledged this ambition, it was widely believed. However, with Congress taking a prominent position, it became clear that Nitish Kumar’s influence would wane, leading to his eventual sidelining.

The recent release of the Bihar caste census appears to be a calculated move by Nitish Kumar to regain prominence in opposition politics. Recognising that if political discourse revolves around caste-based politics versus the BJP’s platform, he stands to gain significantly, Kumar strategically unveiled the survey’s results to shape the narrative in his favour once more. This move underscores his resilience and determination to remain a prominent player on the political stage, even in the face of shifting alliances and dynamics within the opposition.

Expected opposition strategy

The recent release of Bihar’s caste census has injected fresh vigor into the narrative arsenal of opposition political parties in their ongoing battle against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). As the 2024 general elections loom on the horizon, this demographic data promises to be a potent tool, shaping a political and social narrative that stands in stark contrast to the prevailing BJP ideology.

What’s unmistakable is that a significant faction of the opposition, including parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal United (JDU), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), and others, draws its political strength from deeply entrenched caste-centric ideologies. Consequently, the discourse has evolved into a fervent debate on social justice, directly challenging the BJP’s political narrative.

Yet, amidst this intricate political landscape, there’s a delicate balancing act underway. Opposition parties are cautious about giving Nitish Kumar undue prominence or shining a glaring spotlight on him. In the world of politics, the repercussions of elevating a single individual can be far-reaching. In Kumar’s case, such attention has the potential to not only disrupt the carefully woven fabric of the opposition alliance but also cement his position as an indispensable leader within its ranks.

Position of Congress and others

In the recent parliamentary discourse leading to the passage of the Women’s Reservation Bill, Congress leaders, including Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, vigorously advocated for the inclusion of quotas for Other Backward Classes (OBCs). This pivotal moment marked the inception of Rahul Gandhi’s unwavering commitment to championing OBC reservations. Under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, the Congress party has made a resolute bid to establish itself as the primary advocate for this critical issue. In this dynamic narrative, Nitish Kumar finds himself somewhat eclipsed, as the Congress focuses its energy on rallying behind the Gandhi family and projecting Rahul Gandhi as the driving force behind the OBC reservation discourse and its associated themes.

In the intricate realm of politics, Nitish Kumar grapples not only with the Congress but also with an array of other challenges. Within the landscape of opposition politics, a diverse set of parties with unique ideologies and strategies has emerged. The Trinamool Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party, and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena are among these contenders. These parties bring their own distinct characteristics and challenges to the political arena. Unlike parties deeply rooted in Mandal politics ideology, these factions do not prioritize caste-centric reservations as their primary focus. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), for instance, has carved a niche for itself by not overtly aligning with caste-based reservations. This nuanced stance is mirrored by Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, which adds complexity to the political dynamics. In the intricate political landscape of West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s strategic moves deserve close scrutiny, especially regarding her inclination toward an Other Backward Classes (OBC)-centric approach and how it aligns with her long-term political aspirations.

In a surprising turn of events, the release of the Bihar caste census has emerged as a game-changing development with far-reaching implications for the upcoming 2024 General elections in India. This unforeseen development possesses the potential to reshape the political landscape, particularly within the opposition. As we analyze the current political terrain, it becomes crucial to delve into the strategies the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will employ to counter the prevailing narrative. Remarkably, the BJP has opted for a conspicuous silence on the issue, despite the significant portion of its voter base comprised of Other Backward Classes (OBCs). This strategic choice has left analysts speculating about its implications and the calculations behind it, especially considering that Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself belongs to the OBC category. Throughout political history, Mandal politics has proven to be a formidable electoral force.

In the realm of opposition politics, several pressing questions loom large today. Unlike the 1980s, the current landscape is characterized by fragmentation, a lack of unity, and an overwhelming focus on personal ambitions among opposition parties. These factors cast a shadow over the prospect of mobilizing the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) effectively. Amidst this political landscape, one aspect remains clear: opposition parties appear unwilling to grant Nitish Kumar a degree of prominence. However, despite this calculated move, it is highly unlikely that Kumar’s detachment from the INDIA bloc will diminish; if anything, it might intensify.

The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. He is a columnist and research scholar. He tweets at @sayantan_gh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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