Why Modi’s BJP is solid at the Centre, but needs to step up in states

Deep down, even Narendra Modi’s most delusional enemies know that it would be extremely difficult to not just beat him in 2024, but to stop the BJP from getting more seats than 303 it got in 2019. India wanted roti (or bread), the prime minister provided it to 900 million people under direct benefit transfer, throwing in LPG connection under Ujjwala to make the rotis. India wanted kapda (or clothes), he made Khadi products grow by 332 per cent since 2014 and brought a number of schemes for weavers and craftsmen. India wanted makaan (or housing), Modi gave the poor more than 30 million houses in villages and over 11 million houses in cities. For the middle class and the affluent, he brought the Real Estate (Regulation and Development Act as redressal and protection from predatory builders. India wanted Ram Mandir, he paved the way for the grand temple construction and its inauguration next January. India wanted revenge, he served it hot in Balakot and other places across the LoC. Indians wanted the moon, Modi got ISRO to send Chandrayaan. At the Centre, the BJP’s grasp on power through people’s mandate is almost unshakable. Why then is it faltering in quite a few state elections? Except Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Assam, in no other state can it claim unassailable popularity or decisive control today. Let us quickly examine a few.

• In Madhya Pradesh, it is staring at a loss in the forthcoming elections unless Shivraj Singh Chouhan is replaced by a fresh and dynamic leader. While the people have no problem with the BJP, there is great fatigue and anti-incumbency around Chouhan coupled with charges of corruption on his family.
• In Rajasthan, what could have been a certain Congress wipeout could end up as a fight because of Vasundhara Raje Scindia’s stubbornness not to step aside, clear the way for a new leader, and come to the Centre.
• In Chhattisgarh, the BJP does not seem to have a leader to challenge Bhupesh Baghel’s popularity. If Baghel falls, it would be because of the stain of his own corruption, not the shine of the BJP.
• In Karnataka, it could stem neither corruption nor internal discord.
• In Bengal, a fractious, indifferent and self-serving state unit seems determined not to reap the fruits of massive disenchantment against the corrupt and violent TMC.
• In Delhi, there is neither a passable state unit nor a pinch of unity.
• Maharashtra is a mess — an absurdist theatre of turncoats and shifting alliances.
• In Bihar, the party needs a Yogi Adityanath-like leader to take on Tejashwi Yadav smart politics.
• In Haryana, the BJP hangs on to power with a creaky coalition.
• Jharkhand may be gifted to it by Hemant Soren’s corruption and lack of charismatic leadership.
• In Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra, it is still a greenshoots party, showing some spunk in the first two states.
• In Kerala, it is up against the formidable odds of demography and the abiding ‘dhimmitude’ of the Hindus.
• Demographics work against the BJP in Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir as well.

If one examines closely, five main factors emerge at the heart of the BJP’s struggles in the states.First, the over-reliance of state units on Narendra Modi to win elections. The party’s biggest asset has tragically made many state leaders believe that they can exist as liabilities. Second, Modi’s BJP, which has come down hard on big-ticket corruption and plugged leakages in the system in a way no government before it had, has failed to check corruption in some crucial states like Karnataka and Maharashtra. Third, state leaders in private conversations complain about meddling by the Centre. If that is true, it leads to stunting of the state leadership. States with decisive and independent-thinking leaders like Yogi Adityanath or Himanta Biswa Sarma have become great assets for the party. Fourth is the meek, unimaginative, indifferent and divided leadership in many states including Bengal. The party needs to identify clean and aggressive leaders in every state and trust them with local decision-making and initiatives and give them a free hand. Fifth, it needs a better-managed retirement plan for the old guard. Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh are prime examples of its failure in this department. If the BJP does not regain its dominance in the states, it will find it more and more difficult to govern at the Centre. Control over Rajya Sabha will dwindle, making the Opposition more hostile. Opposition states will have the local government machinery at their disposal to use against the BJP during elections. And money, the oxygen of politics, will become sparse as state coffers pass on to BJP’s opponents. Abhijit Majumdar is contributing editor, Firstpost. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.