Why Israel's ground offensive in Gaza to crush Hamas is a litmus test for IDF

Since the 7 October attack on its soil, Israel has announced its intent to permanently eliminate the threat of Hamas by launching a ground offensive in Gaza. This is not the first time Israel has made such an attempt. Since withdrawing from Gaza in 2005, Israel has fought Hamas on three occasions: in 2008, 2014, and 2021. In each operation, Israeli forces have mounted a limited incursion, generally lasting a fortnight. After each offensive, Hamas has bounced back. This time, once again, the announcement is to degrade Hamas’s capability to wage war and eliminate its leadership. What remains of concern is the presence of over 200 Israeli hostages held in Gaza by Hamas. Israel has amassed its largest force level for operations since the Lebanon war of 1982. Its armoured formations comprise over 1,000 tanks and a significant part of its army is involved in the ongoing ground invasion, alongside 3,70,000 reservists who have been called up. Simultaneously, the Israeli air force is softening Gaza by destroying what Israel terms as Hamas-linked targets. It is ignoring collateral damage while increasing pressure on Gazans to cooperate and share information on the location of hostages. The Israeli government has stated that operations could take up to three months. There is no doubt that a ground offensive would increase civilian casualties despite warnings being given to Gazans to vacate northern Gaza. There is bound to be an adverse reaction from Arab states once civilian casualties rise. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the President of Turkey, has already stated that Hamas is not a terrorist outfit but a liberation group. The US is working to manage the environment. However, this would largely depend on casualties, the duration of operations and the movement of relief material to Gazans. Most terrorist groups will join the war against Israel if operations get bogged down. Recently, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah met with top officials from Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. In all likelihood, the ongoing ground offensive would favour Hamas, despite Israel possessing overwhelming firepower. Gaza consists of built-up areas, large parts of which have been destroyed by Israeli air power. Such terrain provides the defender the ability to engage and vanish, stalling the attacker. Street-to-street battles to gain control of the area is slow and prone to casualties. The defender is aware of the terrain, while the attacker would be compelled to rely on technologies including drones and robots to warn troops of impending danger. In built-up areas, a smaller, trained and motivated force can delay larger numbers for a prolonged duration. Russian operations in Kharkiv and US operations in Mosul and Baghdad are examples. It is known that troops defending built-up areas would lay booby traps and mines, causing disproportionate casualties and stalling the attacker. Hamas also possesses suicide bombers, which would impose additional caution on attacking forces. Hamas has constructed over 500 kilometres of tunnels in Gaza enabling its fighters to hit assaulting troops and vanish. These tunnels also protect them from superior Israeli firepower. This being their territory they will exploit it to their advantage. One of the reasons for stopping the flow of fuel to Gaza is that the tunnels depend on oil for ventilation and lighting. Lack of ventilation could bring the fighters to the surface exposing them to Israeli military power. Further, Hamas still possesses a collection of rockets which it can employ, adding to delay. The presence of hostages in the hands of Hamas places caution on Israeli forces. Assaulting troops will have to curtail firepower as also control airpower usage to ensure safety of hostages. Nevertheless, Israeli forces have entered deep into Gaza and are meeting with little resistance. If it stalls or drags on or Israel suffers heavy casualties, Hamas would gain in global standing, while the reputation of the IDF will take a hit. Since it has already entered Gaza, no matter how heavy the casualties and delays that its forces might face, Israel would have to continue pressing on. It could also imply drawing in reservists, currently deployed to handle other threats to ensure success. This is possibly what Hamas desires as it would be fighting on home ground and in advantageous terrain. For Hamas, civilian casualties are immaterial while they matter for the rest of the world. Operations of this nature need careful planning and a horde of intelligence. The longer the ground offensive continues, the greater the casualties to Israeli forces as also increased collateral damage, apart from not achieving its aim of destroying Hamas. Anger within the Arab community would enhance pressure on the UN. Allies of Israel today would be neutral tomorrow. Other terrorist groups including Hezbollah would join in. Houthi rebels from Yemen would increase missile launches which they are already doing while those from Syria may join the battle. Israel’s major ally, the US, has a number of bases in the region including in Syria and Iraq. These have already come under attack from terrorist groups since the US began supporting Israel, injuring over 25 US troops. These attacks will increase for which the US needs to be prepared. It is inducting additional anti-missile systems into the region. Finally, there are many questions that have arisen after Israel launched its ground offensive into Gaza. Will its operations be confined to just north Gaza or complete Gaza? Will it intend to administer the region it occupies or vacate? If it vacates, who would take responsibility for administration, the Palestinian Authority, UN or an organisation created by Israel? Will the Hamas leadership be destroyed by an offensive or will it re-emerge in a few years even stronger as has been happening? Perhaps, Israel had put some thought into these concerns before it began its ground incursion into Gaza. Israel is aware that it cannot fail or be bogged down. Excessive casualties are equally unacceptable. Its intelligence has to be spot on, troops prepared and contingencies rehearsed. For now, Israel is on track in its mission. The author is a former Indian Army officer, strategic analyst and columnist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. 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