Why Indian armed forces must institutionalise climate change in their planning and operations

Climate change is already a defining challenge for security. A ‘Threat Multiplier’ that can aggravate conflict and geopolitical competition Climate change threatens half of the US bases worldwide. The adverse climate also makes it harder for the military to do its job. If India must safeguard the security of 1.4 billion people, it has to look at climate change seriously, mitigate its effects by adapting to it, and engage with the scientific community. We must reconcile that extreme adverse weather and natural disaster events will increase, and more conflicts will erupt over access to resources and migrations that they may cause. Without affecting military capabilities, armed forces will have to become part of the global transition and control their own greenhouse emissions. The armed forces are known for managing ecological and environmental issues well, but climate change is quite different. Climate change and security approach of NATO At the 2021 Summit, NATO Heads of State and Government endorsed a Climate Change and Security Action Plan for understanding and adapting to climate change. They planned regional assessments and case studies that included the impact of climate change on military installations and assets and on missions and operations. Since military forces would have to operate in extreme climatic conditions, such as very high or low temperatures, humidity, dust, and coastal salinity, it could affect both operators and equipment. It would also mean greater demand on the military for Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief (HADR) and for restoring critical services such as communications, energy, transport, food, and water supply. NATO also carries out case studies of conflict zones where they have been or are likely to engage, such as North America, Europe, West Asia, Afghanistan, Northern Africa, the Arctic, and more recently, the Indo-Pacific. India has its own regional case studies to be done. Facts Human activity has warmed the atmosphere, land, and oceans. The June-to-August 2023 was the warmest on record globally by a large margin, at 0.66°C above average. As per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the last four decades have been warmer than any decade since accurate global temperatures began being recorded in the 1850s. Global surface temperatures were, on average, 1.090 C higher in 2011-2020 than they were in 1850-1900. The 10 warmest years recorded have been after 2010. Average global precipitation over land has increased since 1950. The global sea level increased by 0.20 meters between 1901 and 2018. The average annual Green House Gas (GHG) emissions during 2010-1019 were higher than any previous decade. Reducing GHG involves reducing fossil fuel usage. As per NASA reports, September Arctic sea ice is now shrinking at a rate of 12.3 per cent per decade, compared to its average extent during the period from 1981 to 2010. Relative to 1970, the climate reference glaciers tracked by the World Glacier Monitoring Service have lost a volume of ice equivalent to nearly 25 meters of liquid water, the equivalent of slicing 27.5 meters of ice off the top of each glacier. Himalayan glaciers may lose 75 per cent of ice by 2100, causing dangerous flooding and water shortages for nearly 2 billion people who live downstream of rivers that originate in the Himalayas. A recent research found that Mount Everest’s glaciers, for example, have lost 2,000 years of ice in just the past 30 years. Absolute salinity is defined as the concentration of dissolved salts in seawater. About 85 per cent of the evaporation and 77 per cent of the precipitation occurs over the ocean. Saltier oceans result in increased freezing point, and lesser sea ice, and warmer climates, and directly changes the width of the habitable zone. Sea surface salinity impacts coastal military stations and equipment. Salinity has issues for mangroves as in Sundarbans. There are other climate trends like droughts, heat waves, heavy rainfall, and floods occurring at higher frequency. Rising sea levels means land erosion, deforestation, and desertification, and breaking down of agriculture systems. The global targets It must be remembered that 1 per cent of the richest generate the same carbon emissions as the 50 per cent of the poorest globally. Rich developing countries have polluted the atmosphere in the last 300 years since the industrial revolution. They must take responsibility and support the developing world with technology and funding to go green. It has to be a global approach. Any funding supported by rich nations should be made more democratic, and not be tied with political strings. The carbon credit rating system needs to be made more real and implementable. At the COP 26 in Glasgow, countries reaffirmed the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. And they went further, expressing alarm and utmost concern that human activities have caused around 1.1 °C of warming to date. The carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced by 45 per cent this decade to reach net zero around 2050. Developed countries came to Glasgow falling short on their promise to deliver US$100 billion a year for developing countries. Private financial institutions and central banks announced moves to realign trillions of dollars towards achieving global net zero emissions. Cost of renewable energy has fallen, and thus increasing opportunity. Climate affects military operations High temperatures affect load carriage for aircraft, and also impacts sensitive avionics. Frequent thunderstorms could mean mission re-routing more often and affect operations and fuel consumption. Climate change will increase jet-streams and also increase Clear Air Turbulence (CAT). Climate change will impact space launch stations which are normally close to the shore. Temperatures impact ground forces for efficiency. Tanks become hot like an oven. Very low temperatures result in frostbite and require special protective clothing. Dust storms affect all equipment. All this will require increased heating, cooling and ventilation of equipment. Climate change could also disrupt training plans. Naval forces can be affected by ocean acidity. Change in sea surface temperatures affects sound velocity, which has implications for detection and localisation. Salinity affects buoyancy of submarines, and impacts submarine warfare. Increased temperatures would mean greater cooling requirements for ships propulsion systems. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has put restrictions on sulphur emissions to be reduced by over 80 per cent. They are also insisting on alternative fuels. Extreme weather shortens equipment life-cycle, requires frequent servicing, and in turn affects availability and lifecycle costs. Militaries will require enhanced meteorological assessment tools, including climate change and security modelling using artificial intelligence and big data analytics. Global emissions by militaries Military emissions from flying jets, sailing ships, and training exercises, were left out of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on reducing greenhouse gases. They were exempted again from the 2015 Paris accords - on the grounds that data about energy use by armies could undermine national security. Some experts claim that militaries account for 5.5 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Others contest the figures as highly exaggerated. There are signs, however, that some militaries are becoming more open to reporting and making strides to cut their climate impact. The 31-member NATO security alliance, has created a methodology for its members to report their military emissions. The Pentagon sent the U.S. Army and Navy representatives to the COP27 climate summit in Egypt last year, for the first time ever. The Pentagon will begin incorporating climate analysis into its war-gaming and analysis efforts as well as featuring the issue as part of its future National Defence Strategy. Climate change is being taught in all major military academies. The US Naval War College began studying the topic in the late 1980s. Private think tanks, and other organisations have been pointing to threats that climate change poses to peace and stability. US DoD has special directorates in intelligence, and security departments to look at links between climate and security. Indian regional dynamics There are approximately 15,000 glaciers in the Himalayas. Each summer, these glaciers release melting water into the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra Rivers. Approximately 500 million people depend upon water from these three rivers. These glaciers, like others in the world, are at risk of melting due to increasing temperatures and erratic weather patterns. Himalayan glaciers may lose 75 per cent of ice by 2100. Glaciers depend on heavy precipitation to replenish ice on an annual basis. If these glaciers melt, many people dependent on them will be flooded during winter and experience drought during summer. Melting glaciers also cause landslides. There are river water issues between India-Pakistan and India-Bangladesh. Most rivers start in China. China is unwilling to share hydrological data with India. Extreme weather events like cyclones with higher frequency and severity hit India and Bangladesh causing loss of life and prosperity. Water salinity affects mangroves in Bangladesh, some of which had to be vacated causing internal migration. Livelihood affected by climate change results in economic migration, as can be seen from Bangladesh to India. The long-term changes in seawater temperature, acidity, deoxygenation, cyclones and sea level in the Bay of Bengal impacts ocean productivity, habitats and biological processes. Traditional fisheries are most vulnerable to climate change. Climate warming also affects the inland and coastal aquaculture sectors of the Bay of Bengal. There are fishing disputes between India and Sri Lanka. As per Ministry of Power, India’s electricity generation mix in May 2023 was tilted towards fossil fuels, with 56 per cent share (49 per cent coal, 6 per cent gas, 1 per cent others). 44 per cent non-fossil includes 11 per cent hydro, and solar and wind etc. 33 per cent, Nuclear share is 1.3 per cent. India must take the lead and coordinate and support the regional countries through BIMSTEC, SAARC, SAGAR, and other forums and initiatives. Action plan The Indian military prides itself in ecologically and environmentally responsible operations. Most military stations are setting up solar power generation. They are managing waste through scientific eco-friendly means. Indian military is transitioning to non-fossil fuel technology, and looking closely at energy use and savings. Indian Air Force (IAF) has already begun using biofuels. The notion of greener or socially responsible arms production will seem ironic. Several military technology companies do however produce Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) reports and provide GHG emissions and environmental data. India’s DRDO and DPSUs have to look at it closely. India has mastered HADR. These are post event actions. Climate change is a proactive preventive exercise. Security implications after climate change are also reactive actions. We need to look at preventing climate change closely. We need to build climate resilient infrastructure at military bases. Sun shelters are already being built for aircraft on tarmac. India is becoming more active in the Indo-Pacific. There are many more maritime and air exercises. Indian Island territories are strategically located. There are plans to build more infrastructure. The Indian military has to thus prepare more for climate change and security issues related to coastal areas and Island territories. Indian armed forces need to have special cells at service headquarters to look at climate change and security. This has to be an important subject studied at military academies and also researched by think tanks. The Ministry of Defence must order special case studies. Some important subjects could be – “Impact of climate change and sea level rise in A&N Islands”, “Heat impact on military equipment in Central India and Desserts”. “Extreme cold weather impact on Operations in Ladakh”. Lastly, it is time that India releases its National Security Strategy. Similar strategies by other countries include climate change and security. The writer is Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies.Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.