Why American voters heard Trump more than Harris

In a stunning turn of events, the highly anticipated election results defied expectations as voters delivered a decisive blow to Vice President Kamala Harris. Despite the pre-election polls predicting a tight race, the outcome was far from close. The big question now: What went wrong for Harris, and what went so right for Donald Trump?

Economic Concerns Drive Voters

The central issue driving voters this year was the economy, with 39% of voters listing it as their top concern. From sluggish job growth to ongoing recession fears, to the ever-growing cost-of-living crisis, economic dissatisfaction was palpable across the nation. The second most significant concern was immigration, with 20% of voters identifying the crisis at the southern border as their primary issue. Together, these two issues—economy and immigration—accounted for 59% of voter priorities, areas where Trump has long held strong positions.

By comparison, abortion—Kamala Harris’s key campaign platform—ranked third, with only 11% of voters placing it at the top of their list of concerns. In other words, while Harris made abortion rights the centerpiece of her appeal, it did little to sway the majority of voters.

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A Missed Opportunity

Heading into the election, much of the speculation centered on demographic shifts. Experts predicted a surge of support for Harris among women, but the reality was more complicated.

Harris did win the majority of the female vote, with 54% of women backing her, compared to 44% for Trump. However, Trump’s share among women was up 2% from the 2020 election, meaning he successfully expanded his coalition. While Harris maintained a slim advantage among Latino voters, winning 53% compared to Trump’s 45%, Trump’s support within the Latino community grew significantly, up 13% from 2020.

Among Black voters, Trump’s support remained stable at 12%, with a slight increase of 1% among Black men. Harris, despite her position as the first woman of colour to hold the vice presidency, was unable to convince key voter blocs to rally behind her.

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The Narrative That Backfired

It was widely assumed that Trump’s rhetoric on race and immigration would alienate minority voters, but the reality was quite different. In fact, Trump made significant inroads with communities traditionally less supportive of him. His message on the economy and the border resonated across racial and gender lines, with voters showing more concern for these issues than the Democrats anticipated.

One of the most striking findings from exit polls was that Trump managed to increase his support among women voters, even as his numbers among White voters dropped slightly—down 3% compared to the last election. Despite facing criticism over controversial comments and rhetoric, including inflammatory remarks about Puerto Rico and migrants, Trump’s campaign managed to pivot effectively to focus on broader economic concerns.

The Key Issues

While Harris and the Democrats campaigned on themes of democracy, rights, and the dangers posed by Trump’s denial of the 2020 election results, these issues didn’t gain traction with voters. Instead, as Trump relentlessly hammered home the themes of the economy and immigration in the final days of the campaign, these issues emerged as the dominant forces in the election.

Trump’s focus on the border crisis, which Democrats largely downplayed, appeared to resonate deeply with voters. Additionally, issues like transgender rights, which became a major talking point for Democrats, failed to strike a chord. In fact, exit polls showed that 50% of voters believed transgender rights had “gone too far”, a sentiment that seemed to echo Trump’s rhetoric on the matter, particularly regarding transgender women in sports.

The Democrats’ Miscalculation

The most significant takeaway from this election is the failure of the Democratic Party to read the room. While they focused on issues like abortion rights, Trump’s appeal to voters concerned about the economy and immigration was spot on. The Democrats, on the other hand, miscalculated the concerns of the electorate, focusing too much on divisive cultural issues and not enough on the pocketbook issues that mattered most.

Harris, despite being positioned as a figure of hope and change, was seen by many voters as a continuation of the Biden administration. She failed to distinguish herself from the status quo, and in the eyes of many voters, she became part of the problem, rather than the solution.

Conclusion

Ultimately, this election was a repudiation of the current administration, with voters casting their ballots against the status quo rather than in support of Trump’s more controversial stances. His team read the electorate’s mood correctly, focusing on issues that were top of mind for voters, and their efforts paid off.

As the dust settles, the Democrats are left to reflect on what went wrong. The party underestimated Trump’s ability to expand his base and misjudged the priorities of the American electorate. As history has shown time and time again, any political party that underestimates the voters does so at its peril.