Why agriculture sector across the world needs to break socialist trap

Ironical as it may seem, across the world, reasons for farmer protests have less to do with farming, weather, or food and more with geopolitics. The recent spate of unrest in Europe, for example, can be traced to war, tariffs, currency, fuel costs, logistics, and regulatory wokeism. Similarly, even in post-green revolution India, agriculture sector woes are less about farming and more about political brinkmanship. Therefore, the solution to these woes may not just lie within the paradigm of the farm-to-food value chain but even outside. The world produces more food than it can eat. The quantity of food an average human being can consume in a day across all five food categories is only 300 grams. Extrapolated to 8 billion humans, it translates to a food requirement of 875 million tonnes each year. Double that quantity to feed animals to account for non-vegetarians, and the world doesn’t need more than 1,750 odd million tonnes of agricultural or farm produce of any kind each year. Correspondingly, we produce 800 million tonnes of wheat, 600 million tonnes of rice, 100 million tonnes of pulses, a whopping 1200 million tonnes of corn, and much more in cereal, food grains, and oilseeds. Modern inventions like home refrigerators, commercial cold storage, and advanced food processing have further widened the gap between production and consumption. Arithmetically, we live in a world of agricultural abundance, and that perhaps is at the root of all disgruntlements. Long ago, agriculture stopped being about subsistence and became a sector of the economy. As transaction commerce moved from barter to monetary, agricultural produce became a commodity, and then cash and farming transitioned from occupation to profession to commerce. To fuel that commerce, marketing curated needs beyond just satiating hunger. These needs transcended boundaries in a globalised world, and demand got internationalised. Kiwi Fruit from New Zealand in a New Delhi breakfast and Japanese Edamame in a Johannesburg bar were not a surprise, but so was the downside. When cassava replaces wheat in African meals, war in Ukraine can impact the Congolese wallets, and civil unrest in West Africa can make Choco Latte expensive at Starbucks. What, then, is the solution to the seemingly recurring woes of agriculture? More importantly, does the farm sector deserve a solution? The agri-economy, after all, accounts for a mere 5 per cent of the 105 trillion global GDP. Development economics hints at an inverse relationship with agriculture. But this can be misleading and risks taking those involved in this important sector lightly. Western Europe is perhaps doing that and facing consequences since the sector accounts for a woeful 1.5 per cent of GDP. The fact is that agriculture is the most “real” sector of the economy compared to its sectoral peers. The services sector, for example, has a disproportionate gross value add and hence skews the sectoral ratio in its own favor. If the number of people gainfully employed were a measure of sectoral contribution and importance, then agriculture would rank at the top. Besides, agriculture is the deepest foundation of the economy, nay, humanity. So, nurturing the sector should be a policy priority. And this should be the central perspective before we start dealing with the sector. Contextually for India, a comparison with China offers perspective on why it is important to lock in a long-term strategy in dealing with agriculture since both countries feed roughly the same number of mouths and employ 40 per cent of their workforce in the sector. It is quite likely that India will follow a similar economic trajectory as China’s. China’s agri-sector accounts for 7 per cent of its $19 trillion GDP compared to 15 per cent of India’s $4 trillion. Twice the sectoral production in absolute terms. Chinese arable land, though, is smaller at 110 million hectares than India’s 140 million. The productivity difference could well be because of a historically distinct political-economic model. China has a history of state ownership of land and farm collectivisation, whereas much of our agriculture is still small holdings and single-crop farming. With its economic trajectory, India will soon be faced with increased farm productivity and even more pressure from the aspirations and expectations of a significantly large population dependent on agriculture. Our solutions will have to be different and indigenous. A China-like solution of keeping migrant farmers building ghost cities will not suit our democracy, and boosting the low-employability services sector like in the West will not be pragmatic for our population and demography. We need to find solutions for agriculture within agriculture. As a first step a directional clarity is long overdue. Unlike services and industry who have comfortably adjusted to welfare capitalism, Agriculture seems to be stuck in the socialist trap often behaving like a petulant child that must be tolerated. Without firm clarity policymaking will always be reactionary and vacillating. An empirical and formal economic classification of farmers distinguishing large farmers from medium and marginal ones has become an urgent imperative. If not done the needs of suppressed masses in the sector will always be held ransom to demands of the rich few. Education and awareness about economic mainstreaming of agriculture through welfare capitalism at grassroot levels will go a long way. Agri-GenZers with access to technology can be reached easily and will appreciate the merits of demanding taxpayer benefit over playing perpetual victim card, obstructionism and fishing for sops. A proactive Agri sector budgeting like that of its sectoral peers. An objective and target driven approach like aiming to be “N” per cent of the economy in 2030 employing “X” Million people over “Y” hectares generating “Z” million GVA and planning sectoral investment will have some meaning. An ecosystem level approach to provide Agri entrepreneurship opportunity to agri-GenZers promoting Agri SME’s and Agri Startups at block, district, and agricultural university level. Most university grads become sales executives for pesticide and seed companies. As a first step, directional clarity is long overdue. Unlike services and industry, which have comfortably adjusted to welfare capitalism, agriculture seems to be stuck in the socialist trap, often behaving like a petulant child that must be tolerated. Without firm clarity, policymaking will always be reactionary and vacillating. An empirical and formal economic classification of farmers, distinguishing large farmers from medium and marginal ones, has become an urgent imperative. If not met, the needs of the suppressed masses in the sector will always be held hostage to the demands of the rich few. Education and awareness about the economic mainstreaming of agriculture through welfare capitalism at grass-roots levels will go a long way. Agri-GenZers with access to technology can be reached easily and will appreciate the merits of demanding taxpayer benefit over playing perpetual victim card, obstructionism, and fishing for sops. Proactive agri-sector budgeting like that of its sectoral peers. An objective and target-driven approach like aiming to be “N” per cent if the economy in 2030 employs “X” million people over “Y” hectares, generates “Z” million GVA, and plans sectoral investment will have some meaning. An ecosystem-level approach to providing agri-entrepreneurship opportunities to agri- GenZers promotes agri-SMEs and agri-startups at the block, district, and agricultural university level. Most university graduates become sales executives for pesticide and seed companies. Finally, to get out of the MSP trap, demand-side policy interventions in the non-food sectors may help. Pharma, energy, petroleum, construction materials, and pesticides are industries that drive cyclical demand for non-food agriculture beyond food. In fact, an agri-first view of all the sectors may not just add to sustainability goals but will also keep the sector healthy and prosperous. The author is an entrepreneur and a columnist with keen interest in history, social anthropology, public policy and economy. He tweets as @vikramlimsay. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.