Who will launch next ground offensive in the war in Ukraine and when?

Despite Bakhmut facing one of the most intense battles, the Russian claim of its siege and control and Ukraine’s assertion of pockets holding out, the war in Ukraine has seen more standoff attacks by missiles, drones and artillery shelling, with hardly any major ground offensive in the recent past. Russian cruise missile barrage and Ukrainian drone attack on Crimean Oil Depot are part of this design. Both Russia as well as US-led NATO fighting a proxy war through Ukraine, are feeling fatigue of war, but don’t find negotiation as an attractive enough option, due to unfinished agendas. While the kinetic, contact, hybrid war between Russia and Ukraine was heading towards stalemate with sporadic standoff strikes, offensive actions are happening in the US-led NATO’s undeclared, non-kinetic, non-contact war against Russia in the economic, information, diplomatic, and political spheres such as the renewed push of G7 for more sanctions (hypocritically keeping nuclear fuel, fertilisers, critical minerals out of it), the threat to extend Black Sea grain deal beyond 18 May 2023.  Efforts are on to keep NATO together amid signs of internal frictions and mitigating the impact of the Pentagon intelligence leaks, which took some steam away from much-publicised propaganda of the West lauding Ukraine’s capability to launch a spring offensive to recapture entire lost territory, exposing some its glaring weaknesses. Under such circumstances, it remains to be seen which side could launch the next major ground offensive. The maximal of war in Ukraine Certain stark realities decide the maximum limits of the war, which both sides are hesitating to accept. Firstly, Russia with the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles under Putin will not get annihilated/decisively defeated without using any of these major weapons. Secondly, the US will not risk the annihilation of Washington/New York to save Volodymyr Zelensky/Poland. Thirdly Russia will not be able to annihilate Ukraine supported by NATOs without a serious breakdown internally. Fourthly Europe will have to follow American diktat as it knowingly fell prey to American design of cutting off its dependency on Russia and ignored its own security and Russian security concerns for too long. Fifthly, Ukraine can’t recapture entire lost territory without NATO getting fully involved, meaning Third World War and Nuclear ‘Armageddon’ risk. The war is therefore likely to be prosecuted within these maximal limits. NATO would like the war to be confined to Ukraine, for which it has little choice but to support it ‘for as long as it takes’. It can’t afford any spillover of war to any NATO country, which implies posing an existential threat to Russia, forcing it to make the unpleasant decision of nuclear catastrophe or forcing the US to selectively shy away from NATO’s security obligations to affected member States to save Washington and New York.  NATO, therefore, echoes that Putin must not win; hence, boosting Ukraine’s will to fight by creating a hope of winning an unwinnable war seems to be its effort with a willing Zelensky to do so. During NATO’s meeting at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany besides discussing further assistance to Ukraine, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg extended an olive branch to Ukraine by reaffirming that Kyiv will eventually join NATO, as Zelensky reiterated his demand of fast-tracked admission into NATO of Ukraine, fully knowing that it’s a dream with many practical difficulties. Possibilities of Ukraine’s spring offensive While the Russians are downplaying the drone attack in Crimea having put an oil depot on fire by announcing no casualties, Ukrainians without owning it publicly, have hailed long-lasting punishments to Russians for cruise missile strikes claiming 25 lives, going ahead advising civilians in Crimea to remain away from military installations, indicating an offensive design. NATO claims to have met 98 per cent of Ukraine’s need to launch counteroffensive, provided 1,550 armoured vehicles and 230 tanks to form units, trained and equipped more than nine new Ukrainian armoured brigades. Some aircraft, anti-aircraft weapons & systems, and ammunition has been given by NATO allies. NATO’s Secretary-General asserted that it will put Ukraine in a strong position to continue to retake occupied territory, thereby encouraging it to launch an offensive, although Zelensky’s wish list demands better air defence and aircraft. Notwithstanding the boost in the military arsenal, professionals know that collection of hardware doesn’t necessarily mean a battle-winning force! During Ukraine Defense Contact Group Meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, General Mark Milley’s remarks indicate that additional weapons issued by NATO can help Ukraine defend itself longer, but it’s not a silver bullet to defeat Russia. Speaking aside Lloyd Austin, it’s not the first time he has cautioned NATO to be realistic on its expectations; hence, his words need serious consideration. President Zelensky, has been primed to believe in the mission’s (counteroffensive’s) success and that “ we will be able to de-occupy our territories.” With the cumulative aid over $100 billion poured into Ukraine Zelensky has no choice, but to continue fighting, as any compromise will jeopardize his survival; hence he is overly obligated to carry out Washington’s plan into action of prolonging the conflict, short of pushing them into nuclear war or inviting an attack on NATO, till last Ukrainian standing, despite having displaced more than 6 million people internally, sent nearly 8 million refugees outside, suffering significant casualties and having destroyed half of its infrastructure. Will Russia launch major offensive? Russia still finds itself well short of achieving its overall strategic aim of annexing the entire Donbas region, capturing the entire southern corridor to link it to Crimea and extend it to Transnistria to ultimately landlock Ukraine to secure the Black Sea for its maritime movements. With a heavy burden of economic cost and casualties, Russia is struggling with its desired end state for conflict termination. Currently, Russia’s residual combat capability is quite limited to making significant gains in any ground offensive towards its strategic aim. It has adopted standoff attack options to minimise casualties of men and material. It needs time to build its combat power to regain the initiative. It makes strategic sense for Russia, to consolidate occupied territories, create a viable defence line and rebuild its economy and hardware to add to overall combat capability. Russia has already built up multiple layers of defence as seen in many satellite imageries, in parts of Donbas and southern Ukraine like layers of anti-tank ditches, obstacles, minefields and trenches. The superiority of air assets with Russia is also a significant factor. Ukraine appreciates that Moscow wants “to bleed Ukraine dry through the risk of the war’s renewal that would scare off investors and prompt people to flee and then to attack again” which may well be true. Russia will therefore rely on standoff attacks to destroy the maximum newly inducted arsenal of Ukraine and its critical infrastructure, instead of a hard slogging ground offensive, unless inescapable. Preparation of absorbing the attack and responding with a strong counter-offensive may be part of the plan, should Ukraine take the initiative of launching an offensive. The option to use nuclear weapons, in case of existential threat will continue to be a powerful tool to prevent NATO from entering into contact war with Russia in future too. Conclusion While Russia can choose its time and place for its offensive/counteroffensive, Ukraine is under pressure to launch its overhyped spring offensive. NATO will like to see Zelensky delivering ‘Bang for the Buck’, having met his 98 per cent requirements of military hardware, and shaping the battlefield accordingly. It is interesting to note that the arms dealers from US, working like a deep state will continue pushing the US administration to continue with the war, who in turn will push NATO and Ukraine to continue till the last Ukrainian standing. Pentagon knows that ultimately Ukraine will have to make some compromises to its territorial integrity, as it’s not possible to fully evict Russians from there. However, Russia winning an additional 15 per cent of Ukraine after Crimea, is an unpalatable pill for NATO, which can encourage Russia to grab more in future; hence it would like to give offensive a chance with a willing Zelensky, overhyped to show Russians their weakness, more so when NATO carries no burden of body bags. President Zelensky has no choice but to continue the war, with Western propaganda depicting him as the undisputed winner, overplaying the poor morale of the Russian military, having shaped the battlefield accordingly. Apparently, Ukraine may be pushed into an offensive soon and Russia and Ukraine will see some more destruction before coming to terms with the reality of changed territorial alignment, after delaying it as long as it takes! The author is a veteran of the Indian Army. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.