What does Iran’s rocking of the status quo mean for West Asia and the world?

Iran’s tri-nation attacks on Pakistan, Iraq and Syria, not necessarily in that order, is possibly the first time that any nation in West Asia has trained its guns on three adversaries simultaneously after Israel in 1967. Of course, Iran’s is a limited attack at present, but Tehran’s strategy would have provided for possible, if not plausible counter-attacks from one, if not two or all three nations that it had targeted. In the Six-Day War that June 1967, Israel shocked the enemy and surprised the world by destroying Egypt’s air force almost completely on the ground, and also took on a half-hearted Jordan, and later Syria, simultaneously, forcing them all to sign a truce pact on Tel Aviv’s terms, all within 10 days. This time round, no one is talking about the complete annihilation of Iran’s adversary or adversaries, and certainly not their annihilation, as with Egypt’s enmity decades ago. Yet, Iran has set a new agenda for the region and the rest of the world, even if it is unclear how it is going to make it relevant and work on the ground for long, if not indefinitely. For the sheer audacity of the attacks bordering on insanity, Tehran needs to be watched for its subsequent moves, political, diplomatic and military. It’s because Tehran is already a pariah to much of the ‘international community’. If not on their own, many if not most Western nations look up to the U S for guidance and direction that used to be the UK’s until the latter voluntarily abdicated it all in the decades following the Second World War. Iran is now a no-no again after the US had sought to mend fences under President Obama, but has remained intransigent during the incumbency of Joe Biden, who followed in the footsteps of maverick Trump. In a re-election year when Trump is vastly emerging as his Republican challenger, Biden’s hands are tied, and his choices limited. Global Policeman Targeting three neighbours, that too simultaneously, in a way shows the kind of relations that Iran has in the region — strained and tense at best even with Iraq, otherwise an ally at present. Of course, the current attack on Iraq was confined to the Kurds’ area, supposedly a building of a local allegedly fronting for Israel’s Mossad. From another perspective, the Iranian action also reflects the kind of military depth the country thinks it possesses, and not all others are willing to concede. Even as western governments, analysts and media have been rightly riling Tehran for human rights violations, especially of women, in recent years, they have not been able to obfuscate the nation’s core strengths and its strategic depth. Suffice is to recall how the mullah-run Iran held out on its own in the eight-year-war against Iraq under Saddam Hussein, then supposedly a friend and ally of the US. It was even believed that Saddam was fighting America’s war against Iran in retaliation for the ‘hostage crisis’ in the US embassy in Tehran. Whether true or not, the American animosity held on, citing Iran’s nuclear programme as the immediate cause and provocation – implying Washington’s self-assumed role as the ‘global policeman’, as well. What is good for Israel… Yes, Tehran has still not drawn the parallel, but the massive Israeli attack on Gaza after the unprecedented Hamas’ strike of 7 October, may be quoted if nation’s question Iran on the current attacks. In a veiled way, it has told the global community that what was good for Israel should be good for Iran, too. Until not very long ago, the equation did not hold as Israel continued to target Iran’s nuclear installations, and may be keeping them on its radar, if not cross-hairs, still. Even without the three-nation strikes, Iran is being seen as behind Hamas, Hezbollahs and Houthis in their recent attacks on Israel. Tel Aviv has not stopped punishing and penalising innocent Palestinians in Gaza despite global condemnation. This may now set a bad precedent, going beyond Iran’s counter-strikes. Future episodes of the kind in the region and elsewhere could cite Israeli attacks/counter-attacks. They may return to the previous pages of the region’s history to argue how the US too had penalised innocent Afghans and their children for two full decades, that too close to ten years after eliminating 9/11 perpetrator Osama bin-Laden — in neighbouring Pakistan. Increasingly inward Conventionally, Israel used to be the centre of geo-politics and geo-strategies pertaining to West Asia. Among the region’s Islamic nations, Saudi Arabia enjoyed a primacy, both owing to religious and economic reasons. The House of Saud is the custodian of the Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina by virtue of their falling within the political jurisdiction of the Saudi State. As the world’s largest oil producer, Riyadh always swung world opinion and regional politics since at least the 1973 ‘OPEC oil-pricing’. Now, Iran seems to want to take a share of Israel’s prime role in the region, if not try and have all of them for it. Tehran’s recent patch-up with Riyadh, facilitated by Beijing, may hold an indicator. Barring attacks on Yemen, Saudi Arabia does not have the kind of war-machine that Iran can boast of. The question is if under the evolving post-Cold War global-change, Saudi Arabia has out-sourced its military requirements of the anti-Israeli kind to Iran, sharing possibly equitable political space with the other. It needs to be noted that more than 36 hours after the Israeli attacks, Saudi Arabia has not commented on it. Indications over the past years are that Riayadh under Mohamed-bin-Salman (MBS) has become increasingly inward, particularly to mend the economy that for some years now has been showing all signs of imploding. Riyadh’s equations with ‘time-tested’ American relations too have been faltering, as evidenced by the ‘Khashoggi killing’ (2018) and more recently over the Saudi refusal to increase oil production under American pressure, at the commencement of the continuing ‘Ukraine War’. Or, will Saudi Arabia be tempted/forced to take back the initiative, given the deep-seated Shia-Sunni sectarian differences between Iran and the rest of the Islamic world, which could be used to test their bonhomie. In all this, does China or even Russia, together or separately play any role, remains to be known. Strategic Independence The Iranian air-strikes occurred just a day after India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar had visited Tehran. It is not known if India was taken into confidence at the time, or was it one of those occasions, as in 1979, when Beijing attacked Vietnam and Atal Behari Vajpayee as EAM was on a fence-mending mission to China and was told nothing about it, prior-hand. New Delhi has since defended Iran’s attacks, but confining its support to Tehran targeting terror-perpetrators in Pakistan. Such an Indian line may go against the spirit of the American friend’s post-’79 position that Iran was among the three ‘epi-centres of global terrorism’ as enunciated years later by President George Bush, Jr. Just as not signing in for the America’s anti-terror military initiatives targeting Al-Qaeda and Osama in Afghanistan, New Delhi has also refrained from signing for the US-led naval coalition, ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ against the Iran-backed Houthi militia attacks on commercial vessels with purported Israeli links, in the Red Sea. However, New Delhi promptly despatched naval vessels for the security of India-linked commercial vessels passing through those waters. After the Ukraine War, India has re-asserted strategic independence in foreign and security policy, first over the Israel-Hamas War and now, Iran’s anti-terror attacks on Pakistani targets. The Indian delineation of issues on both matters is also complete. On Israeli counter-attacks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself tweeted his support for Tel Aviv’s ‘right to retaliation’ (as with India’s ‘Surgical Strikes’ in PoK, 2016), and the Government followed it up with a moderated stand on the humanitarian aspects of Israeli counter-attacks – and it has held since. On the Iranian attacks subsequently, too, India has backed Tehran’s right to target cross-border terror groups but does not want to spare Iran-backed Houthis on the Red Sea. Islamabad has since reacted rather strongly to Iranian attacks by recalling its envoy and telling the Iranian ambassador to stay back home, as he was in Tehran at the time, and not return. Islamabad’s reaction to India’s political support for Iran is not known. Not stopping there, Pakistan has since targeted Iran, again Baloch areas across the border, in which nine persons were killed. India especially will be watching the pre-fixed annual Iranian military exercise in Chabahar in Iranian Baloch area as the two nations extended their existing port deal by a decade during Jaishankar’s Tehran visit. Visible signature The tri-nation attack by Iran has overnight heated up the climate in West Asia beyond more than already. Considering that the Iranian signature is visible also in the Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi attacks in the region extending from Israel to Yemen on the Red Sea, there may be need for greater concern for the larger neighbourhood. Also, the Iranian exploits just now may have also cracked the seeming coalition that was supposedly emerging among the anti-US nations of the region, from Russia to China, in which Syria, Pakistan and may even be Iraq were a part – at least as prospective partners. How this one pans out will be closely watched, especially in New Delhi though any further American attacks, be it in words or deeds, against Iran, could force India’s hands to choose its partners. Or, will India be able to navigate through it as smartly as it has been able to do since the outbreak of the Ukraine War. What all of it may still hold for West Asia as a region and the world as a whole is another matter altogether. The writer is a Chennai-based Policy Analyst & Political Commentator. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.  Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.