Weather report: Rains in western Himalayas, plains of north India won't let flood-hit areas recover

The monsoon remained aggressive over central and northern parts of India as the trough is stagnant over the plains of India. It’s been only mid-July and 20 days since the monsoon season set in across the country, and various parts of north India, i.e., Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, experienced cloudbursts and flash floods followed by heavy rains that led to floods in various parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and in some parts of the national capital Delhi, Noida, Ghaziabad, and Faridabad in the past week. Yamuna broke the all time record of highest flood level at the old iron bridge by crossing the mark of 207.49 m which was last recorded during September 1978. Seasonal rains in Delhi NCR are going strong, till 16 July base observatory Safdarjung received 424.5 mm rainfall against the normal of 176.2 mm departure from normal stands at whopping 141 per cent, the annual accumulation so far is 629.1 mm, by the looks of it it may surpass the annual average of 757.0 mm by July end with nearly 45 till the monsoon withdraws as per the usual climatology. [caption id=“attachment_12876232” align=“alignnone” width=“669”] Pan-India daily actual seasonal rainfall and anomaly since 1 June 2023[/caption] Overall past week has turned out to be wet for states of northern and central India despite decline in rainfall week on week, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh has been most benefited while southern peninsula, north-east, east and western parts of the country saw below normal rains during 10  till 16 July. The monsoon is holding the number tight, in the period of 1 June till 16 July, India as a whole has received 304.2 mm rainfall against the normal of 304.2 mm, departure from normal stands at 0% compared to week on week of +2 per cent. Subdivision wise seasonal rainfall till 16 July 2023:

• Southern Peninsula: Actual 203.4 mm against the average of 262.3 mm, -22 per cent departure from normal.
• East and North East India: Actual 449.2 mm against the average of 554.3 mm, -19 per cent departure from normal.
• North West India: Actual 258.9 mm against the average of 176.6 mm, +47 per cent departure from normal.
• Central India: Actual 335.7 mm against the average of 326.8 mm, +3 per cent departure from normal.

[caption id=“attachment_12876272” align=“alignnone” width=“538”] Seasonal rainfall over meteorological subdivisions of India till 17 July 2023[/caption] Currently west Rajasthan is the best performing regional subdivision in terms of rainfall departure from normal it is currently leading with actual 230.5 mm against the normal of 85.2 mm departure from at 171 per cent.   If one looks at the quantum of rains then coastal Karnataka is leading with 1247.5 mm but its departure from normal is -12 per cent.   The poor performing regional subdivision in terms of departure from normal is Jharkhand,  recorded a total of 204.4 mm rainfall against the normal of 348.9 mm, the departure from normal stands at -41 per cent.   In terms of quantum of rains Rayalaseema has observed the lowest rainfall with only 79.8 mm against the normal of 115.9 mm the departure from normal stands at -31 per cent.   Current synoptic weather features influencing weather in India as on 17 July 2023

• The low pressure area over north Odisha and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal & Jharkhand now lies over South Jharkhand and adjoining North Interior Odisha.

The associated cyclonic circulation extends upto mid tropospheric levels tilting south-westwards with height. It is likely to move west-northwest wards across north Chhattisgarh during next  two days.

• The monsoon Trough at mean sea level now passes through Ganganagar, Narnaul, Gwalior, Churk, centre of low pressure area over South Jharkhand and adjoining North Interior Odisha, Balasore and thence south eastwards to east central Bay of Bengal and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level.

• The western disturbance as a cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan & adjoining Jammu & Kashmir at 5.8 km above mean sea level with the trough aloft at 7.6 km above mean sea level roughly along Long 70° E to the north of Lat 30° N persists.

• A cyclonic circulation is likely to form over Northwest Bay of Bengal around 18th July, 2023.

  [caption id=“attachment_12876292” align=“alignnone” width=“583”] Monday morning satellite imagery shows low pressure area induced cloud patches over central India[/caption]   All India weather forecast till 23 July, flood conditions to prevail or abate? Over the upcoming week two low pressure areas will influence the entire country and help revive monsoon with a new energy. Current low pressure area situated over Odisha is moving westward along with monsoon axis passing over plains of north India this will induce moderate to heavy rains in certain parts of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh,  Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi NCR, Rajasthan, Jharkhand during 17th to 19th July while very heavy rains to impact Telangana, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Following the same track another low pressure area which is expected to emerge over Bay of Bengal by 19 July to move inland brining another round of widespread showers across the core monsoon zone of the country, until next Sunday some parts of Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha region in Maharashtra might experience severe water logging or flood like situation May develop due to incessant rains. Under the influence of the low pressure area, the monsoon axis will keep fluctuating, hence there will be on and off scattered moderate to heavy rains in the western Himalayas and plains of north India. This won’t let flood-hit areas recover completely and may even worsen the situation. The pull effect of the low pressure area to activate offshore trough along the west coast of India, over the week prolonged spell of moderate to heavy rains will resume over coastal Karnataka, Konkan, Goa and some parts of Kerala with very heavy rains in the the Ghat section of the region. Monsoon misery will continue for east India? Some of the country’s wettest zones have been experiencing prolonged dry spells or sporadic rains only and there seems to be no turn of the events, Most parts of Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, East Uttar Pradesh will continue to receive isolated showers over this week as no good rains in foresight sowing of rice will continue to remain impacted in these regions and drought like conditions might brew. The seven sister states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram,  Manipur, Nagaland, Tripura to experience period spells of moderate rains and heavy showers at times, despite this the typical spells of extremely heavy rains will remain absent as there is scarcity of moisture from bay of bengal as low pressure areas will mainly stay in central India over this week. After north east another part of the country like Tamil Nadu, south Andhra Pradesh and south interiors of Karnataka will experience largely dry weather of isolated rains till 23 July, on typical textbook terms these areas observe break in monsoon conditions when MISO and low pressure areas are active over Central and north India. Amid the regional distribution of rainfall overall this week pan India rainfall will once again start shifting towards positive anomaly. The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.