Weather report: North India to welcome 'Gulabi Thand', rains to rejuvenate in South

It was another nearly dry week in November in most parts of the country. Parts of Tamil Nadu saw some rain earlier in the week under the influence of the easterly winds of the northeast monsoon, but the flow broke after midweek after the deep depression brewed up in the Bay of Bengal and headed towards Myanmar, taking away all the moisture from the east coast of India and leaving the core monsoon zones of Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh dry. Large parts of east, central, and eastern India experienced dry weather conditions as no weather system was present to bring about any change in the current scenario. It was cool in the nights since the minimum temperature had started dipping below 15°C in certain parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Maharashtra, and it was in the range of 15 to 18°C in parts of north-west Gujarat. Days are still warm across this region as sunny and clear weather is prevailing and the maximum temperature is persisting around 35°C or above. The north of India is getting colder day by day. In the plains, most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan are experiencing minimum temperatures in the range of 10 to 14°C. Occasionally, in the past week, some stations recorded a single-digit minimum. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan; however, Delhi-NCR and Uttar Pradesh are yet to witness minimum temperatures in single digits. On 16 November, Bawal AWS in Rewari district recorded a minimum temperature of 9.9°C and became the first station from Haryana to observe single-digit temperatures in this season. Meanwhile, Fatehpur in Sikar district of Rajasthan with a minimum temperature of 7.2°C is the lowest of this season from plains of north India. Clear skies are leading to icy cold weather at nights over western Himalayas, minimum temperatures dropped below freezing level across various hill stations in the past week. Realised minimum temperature across Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh on 16 November: Nyoma: -8.5°C Drass: -7.9°C Padum: -7.4°C Leh: -4.8°C Shopian: -3.9°C Pahalgam: -3.0°C Gulmarg: -1.5°C Kupwara: -0.2°C Qazi Gund: -0.1°C Srinagar: 0.6°C Banihal: 2.2°C Bhaderwah: 4.0°C Patnitop: 5.8°C Udhampur: 7.8°C Samba: 9.7°C Jammu: 11.5°C [caption id=“attachment_13407052” align=“alignnone” width=“300”] In November 2023 so far maximum temperature stayed below normal in northwest India, Minimum temperature remained 1 to 3 degrees above normal pan India[/caption] Another week has passed with deficit rains in India as northeast monsoon rains have not performed up to the mark. The pan India actual rainfall so far in the period of 1st October till 19th November stands at 70.9 mm against the normal of 97.0 mm, the departure from normal currently stands at -27 per cent the is increasing in rainfall deficit by 2 per cent week over week. Subdivision wise seasonal rains till 19 November 2023 • Southern Peninsula: Actual 133.1 mm against the average of 219.4 mm, -39 per cent departure from normal. • East and northeast India: Actual 147.6 mm against the average of 140.0 mm, +5 per cent departure from normal. • Northwest India: Actual 40.6 mm against the average of 29.0 mm, +40 per cent departure from normal. • Central India: Actual 25.9 mm against the average of 67.2 mm, -62 per cent departure from normal. [caption id=“attachment_13407062” align=“alignnone” width=“214”] Subdivision wise seasonal rainfall in India till 19 November 2023[/caption] Current synoptic weather features influencing weather in India as on 20 November 2023 • The upper air cyclonic circulation over the Comorin area extending up to 1.5km above mean sea level persists. • The upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal between 3.1 km and 5.8 km above mean sea level persists. • The western disturbance as a cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan at 3.1 km above mean sea level persists. However, the trough aloft now runs roughly along Long. 70°E to the north of Lat. 27°N at 5.8 km above mean sea level. • A fresh feeble western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region around 23 November 2023. All India weather forecast till 26 November 2023 The revival of northeast monsoon lies ahead, the burst of easterly winds towards the coast of Tamil Nadu will bring fresh spark to rains Monday onwards. • Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over Tamil Nadu and Kerala during 20th-24th; Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 21st; South Interior Karnataka during 22nd-24th and over Coastal Karnataka on 24th of November 2023. • Isolated very heavy rainfall is also likely over Tamil Nadu and over Kerala and Mahe during 22 -24 November 2023. Weather instability to develop in west and north India this week Winters have begun since Diwali in India, but weather conditions have mainly stayed dry since then, in the absence of western disturbances. Westerly jet streams are expected to dip southwards in the upcoming week. This will reverse the anti-cyclonic circulation behaviour over west India; hence, the wind pattern will become unstable, the atmosphere will hold more moisture, and conditions will become favourable for localised cloud development. Under the influence of the mentioned meteorological conditions, isolated light to moderate rains and thunderstorms may occur in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi NCR from 24 to 26 November. During the upcoming weekend, parts of Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand will experience spells of fresh light to moderate snowfall over the hilltops and isolated rains in the remaining hilly terrain. The maximum temperature would not change as much, but minimum temperatures will drop further by 1-2°C from 21 to 24 November across the hilly region as well as in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi-NCR, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, hence, “Gulabi Thand” is shaping up well in the night and morning hours. As we head towards the end of November, temperatures will see a drop in parts of east India as well. Over the coming week, one can expect night-time temperatures to fall below 20°C in many parts of West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, Tripura, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh, while some parts of these states can see cooler nights with temperatures in the range of 10 to 15°C. Amid temperature drops, weather conditions will remain bone-dry across the coming week. The writer, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._   Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.