Weather report: Delayed monsoon to keep east India under heat, cyclone Biparjoy may bring rains in Rajasthan

Monsoon made a delayed entry in Kerala, Cyclone Biparjoy intensified in Arabian Sea, parts of north east, east and west India broke the all time high temperature record for the month of June this is how past week had been for the country weather-wise. India has a large geography landmass and such huge variations are very common but interestingly they all are interlinked to each other when it comes to extreme anomalies. Monsoon 2023 arrived over Kerala on 8 June, delayed by at least a week but this is not the first time a monsoon date with Kerala is delayed by at least one week. The delay in monsoon is resulting in record breaking heatwave over certain parts in India: On Saturday, 10 June Mumbai’s Santacruz observatory reported a maximum temperature of 38.5°c and broke the all time record of highest ever maximum temperature in the month of June since the record keeping begin, the previous record of 38.0°c from 11 June 2014 brought down to the knees, similarly Dhanau experienced a maximum temperature of 39.2°c broke the previous June all time record of 38.5°c from 11 June 2014. Cyclone Biparjoy is parallel to the Mumbai coastline and pulls out all the moisture content resulting in dry and very hot conditions across the Konkan region of Maharashtra. Not just the west coast but the east coast also felt the burnt of delayed monsoon onset, Visakhapatnam Waltair (Vizag) observatory recorded a 43.4°c maximum temperature on 10 June, sets a new June all time record by beating the the previous record of 41.0°c from 3 June 1976 by a huge margin. Earlier in the week the unprecedented heatwave continued to bake north-east and east-India as rains were subdued leading to record breaking temperatures at multiple stations. On 7 June, Purnea in Bihar recorded 43.5°C maximum temperature sets in a new monthly all time record by breaking the previous record of 43.0°C from 2 June 2007. On the same day Guwahati, capital of Assam, experienced 38.9°c, missed its all time record by a low margin, the previous record was 39.0°c from 13th June 2019 while Tadong in Gangtok with 32.2°c notches set a new record. On 8 June, Sohra in Cherrapunji recorded 29.9°c maximum temperature and broke the monthly all time record of 29.7°c from 9 June 2018, one can only imagine the severity of heat when one of the wettest places in the world sets a new monthly all time record. [caption id=“attachment_12725512” align=“alignnone” width=“631”] Above normal temperature anomalies in east and north east India during 10th and 11th June, 2023[/caption] Thankfully coming back to the life again, Monsoon covered entire north east India except Sikkim on Saturday brought heavy rains and joy to the tea planters in the region, till 8:30 AM on 11 June Sohra in Cherrapunji received 106 mm rainfall in the period of 24 hours, this comes after recorded breaking heat at the station and overall region. On Sunday morning within a span of 3 hours between 8:30 AM till 11:30 AM it further recorded 62 mm while Shillong experienced 52 mm rainfall, situation is getting back to normal in the seven sister states. Rainfall in Meghalaya in the span of 24 hours till 8:30 AM on 10 June: Shella: 127.2 mm Williamnagar: 100.0 mm Mawsynram: 91.6 mm Lumjingshai: 66.0 mm Resubelpara: 53.2 mm Shillong: 47.2 mm Mawkyrwat: 39.0 mm Cherrapunji: 31.6 mm Cherra RKM: 30.4 mm Mawphlang: 24.0 mm Barapani: 21.6 mm Khliehriat: 17.8 mm Nongstoin: 12.0 mm Current status of Monsoon 2023 as on 11 June, 2023: • The Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, some more parts of Karnataka, Goa, some parts of Konkan, most parts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, some parts of Andhra Pradesh, entire southwest and some more parts west central Bay of Bengal, some more parts of northwest Bay of Bengal and remaining parts of northeast Bay of Bengal today, the 11th June. • The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) now passes through Lat. 16.5°N/Long. 55°E, Lat. 17.0°N/Long. 60°E, Lat. 17°N/Long. 65°E, Lat. 17°N/ Long. 70°E, Ratnagiri, Shivamogga, Hassan, Dharmapuri, Shriharikota, Lat. 15.0°N/ Long. 83.0°E, 18.0°N/87.0°E, 21°N/90.0°E, 23.5°N /90.5°E, Dhubri, 28°N/89°E. • Conditions are favourable for further advance of Southwest monsoon into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, some more parts of Karnataka, some more parts of Maharashtra, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, some more parts of Andhra Pradesh, west central Bay of Bengal, northwest Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of northeastern states and some parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Bihar during next 48 hours. [caption id=“attachment_12725532” align=“alignnone” width=“586”] The northern limit of Monsoon 2023 as on 11th June, 2023[/caption] Cyclone Biparjoy to become first cyclone of this century to hit Gujarat in the month of June: The turns and twists continues as the cyclone in Arabian sea continues to lingers, now it very certain that it is likely to move north eastward towards Gujarat coast due to getting interacted with approaching western disturbance trough on 200 hpa, after June 1998 this will become 3rd Cyclone to hit Gujarat in the month of June and will be the first of this century to do so. As per the data of Joint Typhoon Warning Center this is only the second time in the satellite era (since 1982) that in the pre-monsoon season, both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have seen a category 3 or higher intensity cyclone in the same season. Before this, the only such incident was in 2019. The accumulated cyclone energy of the northern Indian ocean in this pre-monsoon season has reached 27.6. This is now the second highest accumulated cyclone energy in the north Indian ocean during pre monsoon season in recorded history (since 1982) as per Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Top 3 accumulated cyclone energy years in pre-monsoon season: 2019: 37.67 2023: 27.6 2010: 21.54 [caption id=“attachment_12725542” align=“alignnone” width=“509”] Cyclone Biparjoy in the Arabian sea on the evening of 11th June, 2023[/caption] The extremely severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy over east central Arabian Sea moved north and northeast wards with a speed of 10 kmph during past 6-hours and lay centered at 14: 30 hours IST on 11 June 2023 over the same region, near latitude 18.4°N and longitude 67.7°E, about 540 km west of Mumbai, 420 km south-southwest of Porbandar, 460 km south-southwest of Devbhumi Dwarka, 550 km south-southwest of Naliya and 7:30 km south of Karachi (Pakistan). It is very likely to move nearly northward till 14th morning of June, then move north-northeast wards and cross Saurashtra Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts between Mandvi (Gujarat) and Karachi (Pakistan) around noon of 15 June as a very severe cyclonic storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 125-135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph. [caption id=“attachment_12725552” align=“alignnone” width=“478”] The expected track of Cyclonic storm as per JTWC as on 11 June, 2023[/caption] After making landfall Biparjoy will undergo weakening phase but it will maintain strength of an depression or a low pressure area and move into Rajasthan during 15-17 June resulting in heavy to very heavy rains and sustained wind speed up to 80 km/h, this may lead to flash flood conditions in certain parts of desert state which are not used to such rains in the short time frame. Currently, weather models are also indicating its impact to reach up to Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Rajasthan and even up to Himachal pradesh and Uttarakhand during next weekend but the mathematical models will go through multiple checks before the dates come closer and track will keep on changing accordingly. Heatwave conditions with maximum temperatures in the range of 41 to 45°c likely to persist in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Odisha as further advancement of monsoon is not expected in the upcoming week. The southern peninsula will experience subdued rainfall especially in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and interiors of Karnataka while coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Goa to record near normal rainfall this week however it won’t be up to the mark one expects monsoon to bring in. The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.