Weather report: Amid snow-starved Himalayas, north India to witness peak winter next week

The Himalayas are starving for the first proper snowfall of the winter. The dry weather in this season has been alarming; ain’t any meaningful Western disturbance has approached India so far and kept most hill stations in Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand snowless for the first time. The tourists visiting the hill stations are disappointed, and the locals and farmers are also concerned with this weird pattern this time. The credit for the anomaly goes largely to El Nino, which brings late winter or spring snow patterns to India; a similar trend was observed between 2014 and 2016 and in 2018 as well. On the other hand anti-cyclonic circulation over the eastern parts of the country also keeps the atmosphere dry over the country, it has blocked the pattern of easterly winds towards north India which fuels moisture to the weak western disturbance and they become active after entering Indian subcontinent. It was a warm December in plains of north India but winter is catching up well in January, minimum temperature has registered a drop in the past week, on 4 January Sikar in Rajasthan reported 1.0°C this is the lowest minimum temperature in any station of plains so far in this season on the same day Hisar saw 4.0°C,Amritsar 4.2°C, Churu 5.5°C, Chandigarh 5.7°C, Jaipur 6.4°C, Meerut 6.5°C and Delhi 7.7°C respectively. But it is not the nights which are making it feel colder, day time weather extremely cold in presence of upper level fog which helps in restricting maximum temperature in the range of 8 to 14°C across various stations resulting in cold day to severe cold day conditions in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi NCR and Rajasthan. [caption id=“attachment_13588592” align=“alignnone” width=“300”] Fog coverage in northwest and central India on the morning of 6 January 2024[/caption] On 4 January itself Delhi NCR witnessed the coldest day of the season, base observatory Safdarjung recorded 12.5°C maximum temperature which is 7°C below normal while Palam Airport reported 11.4°C. Maximum temperature at some other stations in National Capital Region and neighbourhood: Jhajjar: 10°C Ghaziabad: 10.8°C Noida: 11.1°C Rohtak: 11.2°C Ridge: 12.0°C Lodi Road: 12.6°C Rajghat: 13.6°C The severe cold day pattern continued to hold on the weekend, and parts of Punjab and Haryana saw single-digit maximum temperatures: Gurdaspur: 7.7°C Balasmand: 9.1°C Amritsar: 9.2°C Fatehabad: 9.4°C Delhi NCR region experienced sunshine for a brief period resulting in very slight increase in temperature Palam reported 14.6°C, Safdarjung 15.2°C on Saturday. Some winter feel has also reached Mumbai, as the region saw the lowest minimum of the current season on Saturday morning: Palghar: 15°C Kalyan: 15.7°C Vasai: 16.6°C Thane: 17.2°C Santacruz: 17.5°C Ghatkopar: 18.4°C Minimum temperatures were recorded in the Kashmir region on 7 January. Srinagar recorded the coldest night of the season with a minimum temperature of -5.6°C: Qazigund: -5.0°C Pahalgam: -6.5°C Kupwara: -5.3°C Kokernag: -2.7°C Gulmarg: -4.4°C Sonamarg: -5.6°C Anantnag: -6.5°C Ganderbal: -4.4°C Pulwama: -6.7°C Bandipora: -5.5°C Baramulla: -5.9°C [caption id=“attachment_13588632” align=“alignnone” width=“628”] Extreme below normal maximum temperature in northwest India during the first week of January, 2024[/caption] Since the beginning of new year, the northeast monsoon has activated slightly in parts of Kerala, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu and coastal Karnataka where rains have been excess in the first seven days, light to moderate showers have also occurred in parts of east Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh due to easterlies interaction. The pan India actual rainfall so far in the period of 1 January till 7 January stands at 2.2 mm against the normal of 3.2 mm, the departure from normal currently stands at -32 percent. Subdivision wise seasonal rains in the first week of January, 2024: • Southern Peninsula: Actual 6.7 mm against the average of 2.4 mm, +181 percent departure from normal. • East and north east India: Actual 0.6 mm against the average of 3.2 mm, -81 percent departure from normal. • Northwest India: Actual 0.5 mm against the average of 5.6 mm, -91 percent departure from normal. • Central India: Actual 1.8 mm against the average of 1.6mm, +11 percent departure from normal. [caption id=“attachment_13588652” align=“alignnone” width=“514”] Subdivision wise seasonal rainfall over India so far till 7 January 2024[/caption] Current synoptic weather features influencing weather in India as on 7 January 2023: • The trough at mean sea level runs from south Sri Lanka to west central Bay of Bengal off south Andhra Pradesh coast and extends up to 1.5 km above mean sea level. • The cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood now lies over South East Arabian Sea at 1.5 km above mean sea level. • A trough runs from the cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea to Gujarat coast at 1.5 km above mean sea level. • The cyclonic circulation over West Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood now lies over Southwest Uttar Pradesh at 1.5 km above mean sea level. • A trough runs from the cyclonic circulation over West Uttar Pradesh to north Gujarat at 1.5 km above mean sea level. • A Western Disturbance as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level now runs roughly along Long. 56°E to the north of Lat. 28°N. • The trough from the cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood to Vidarbha at 0.9 km above mean sea level has become less marked. • The trough from south Gujarat to cyclonic circulation over West Uttar Pradesh at 1.5 km above mean sea level has become less marked. All India weather forecast till 14 January 2024: The upcoming week is likely to start on a slightly wet note for the southern, western, and northern parts of the country. Down south, the flow of easterlies will trigger the rain clouds, while in west, central, and north India, the easterlies will meet the approaching weak western disturbance. This will create a trough around west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and adjoining south Rajasthan by 8 January. Under the influence of the weather patterns, moderate to heavy rains are expected in Chennai, north-coastal Tamil Nadu, and south-east Andhra Pradesh on 8 and 9 January, respectively; however, light to moderate rains will occur in Kerala and coastal Karnataka until 10 January . Most parts of the southern peninsula will turn dry once again after January 10th until Pongal; no major precipitation will be observed, and the north-east monsoon will start the withdrawal process by the end of next week after being delayed for nearly 15 days. A weak western disturbance is approaching north India, and it is very likely to interact with low-level easterlies in central India. This will create a confluence zone near south Rajasthan. As a result, light rains will occur in parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh on January 8, while scattered moderate-intensity rains, hailstorms, lightning, and strikes will occur in south and east Rajasthan, north-west Madhya Pradesh, and west Uttar Pradesh on January 9. Some outer bands of clouds can produce drizzles or light rains in parts of Haryana and the national capital, Delhi, and adjoining areas on 9 January. The cloud cover on both days will result in a drop in maximum temperature by 1-3°C, leading to a further increase in cold weather over the north and central parts of India. Most parts of Punjab, Chandigarh, north Haryana, west Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh will not experience any precipitation during this western disturbance; hence, the wait for a wet spell this winter continues to stretch. As the western disturbance will move away from 10 January, dry weather conditions will return for the remaining days of the week, and dense to very dense fog formation is likely in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and even in the eastern parts of the country. Minimum temperature is expected to fall by 2–3°C from current levels; hence, chances are developing for cold waves around Lohri and Makar Sankranti in the north, east, and central parts of the country. The peak winter conditions will continue to prevail next week as well, with limited hours of sunshine leading to below-normal maximum temperatures, while minimum temperatures will be around normal in this period. The writer, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._   Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.