Weather Report: After wettest July in last 29 years, monsoon break is expected in August

India is heading to witness wettest July in last 29 years, it was the year 1988 which hold the record of highest ever with pan India rainfall of 374 mm over the month, This year till 30th July country as a whole received a total 312.2 mm rainfall against the climatology average of 271.9 mm, departure from normal stands at +15 per cent. It rained extremely heavily and many all time records are gone for toss in the past week, from west coast till western Himalayas and from Thar desert till Telangana rainfall number are mind boggling. Mumbai experienced 1758.8 mm rainfall in July till 30th July this is the highest ever monthly total for the city of dreams, the previous record of 1502 mm from July 2020 is down by a huge margin. Mammoth rainfall in the span of 24 hours in various parts of Telangana ending 8:30 AM on 27 July, extremely rare rainfall event as 600 mm is the seasonal average of these towns occurred in a single day resulting in widespread floods in the state. Observatory/Rainfall Laxmidevipeta: 649.8 mm Chityal: 616.5 mm Chelpur: 475.8 mm Regonda: 467.0 mm Mogullapally: 394.0 mm Karkagudem: 390.5 mm The Thar desert in western Rajasthan continues to witness wet spells, extremely rare double century is recorded from Bikaner district as Dungargarh reported 208 mm rainfall in the span of 24 hour till 8:30 AM on 27 July out of which most of the rains occurred in the span of 2 hours. Rainfall data from various stations of Bikaner district on 27 July. Observatory/Rainfall Sri Dungargarh: 208 mm Ghantiyali: 134 mm Ora Tank: 129 mm Aau: 96 mm Shahpura: 95 mm Bassi: 85 mm Rawla: 77 mm Western Himalayas on record breaking spree too, the combination of western disturbances and monsoon axis continue to impact various hill stations across the UT/states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Srinagar capital of Kashmir recorded 187.0 mm rainfall in July 2023 so far till 30 July which turned out to be the wettest ever July for Srinagar met observatory and broke the previous record of 182.6 mm from July 1988, as per record year 1988 too was year with massive floods across north India. Katra in Jammu division is at 802 mm in July 2023 so far it has been the wettest July after 2013. Leh in Ladakh recorded 57.0 mm rainfall in July 2023 so far, This is the highest rainfall ever recorded in Leh during the month beating the previous record of 51.7 mm in 1956. Coming down to Himachal Pradesh, Narkanda in Shimla district has recorded 643.5 mm rainfall so far in July 2023, a whopping amount for a station at the height of nearly 2700 metres. Kalpa in Kinnaur sets a new record with 191.2 mm rainfall so far in July 2023, its previous July record was way lesser 135.0 mm in 2005. [caption id=“attachment_12937962” align=“alignnone” width=“613”] Cumulative rainfall saw an upside trend during July 2023[/caption] As on 30 July, the seasonal rainfall in pan India stands at an actual of 463.3 mm against the normal of 437.2 mm the departure from normal stands at +6 per cent compared to week on week of +5 per cent. Subdivision wise seasonal rainfall in the period of 1st June till 30 July, 2023: • Southern Peninsula: Actual 382.0 mm against the average of 359.4 mm, +6 per cent departure from normal. • East and north-east India: Actual 559.3 mm against the average of 741.6mm, -25 per cent departure from normal. • Northwest India: Actual 373.7 mm against the average of 280.8 mm, +33 per cent departure from normal. • Central India: Actual 547.2 mm against the average of 481.3 mm, +14 per cent departure from normal. [caption id=“attachment_12938022” align=“alignnone” width=“713”] Half-way through the monsoon season, here is a snapshot of subdivision wise seasonal rainfall till 30 July 2023[/caption] Current synoptic weather features influencing weather in India as on 31st July 2023: • The low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Odisha - West Bengal coasts now lies over northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood and the associated cyclonic circulation extends up to 7.6 km above mean sea level tilting south-westwards with height. • The Monsoon Trough at mean sea level now passes through Amritsar, Chandigarh, Moradabad, Gorakhpur, Patna, Deoghar, Digha, centre of Low Pressure Area over northwest Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood and hence south eastwards to east central Bay of Bengal. • The trough now runs from northwest Bihar to the cyclonic circulation associated with the low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood between 0.9 and 3.1 km above mean sea level. • The Western Disturbance is a trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along Long. 73°E to the north of 30°N persists. All India weather forecast and monsoon status till 6 August 2023: Half way in the monsoon season and pan India rains are holding up great numbers except parts of east and north east India where monsoon has been weak for the entire month due to back to back low pressure areas travelling from Bay of Bengal into central India, the deficiency in rainfall has brought painful dent to farmers in east India despite multiple attempts of Kharif sowing crops couldn’t survive due to heat and lack of rains.   [caption id=“attachment_12938052” align=“alignnone” width=“684”] Above normal temperatures realised over east India during the season as monsoon remained parked in central and north west India[/caption] Good news is that the monsoon axis is about to buckle up as Bay of Bengal south of West Bengal and parallel to the odisha coast and expected to move into Odisha and south Jharkhand early this week this to result in widespread moderate to heavy rains across Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Bihar during 31st July till 2nd August and over Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi NCR, Haryana, Chandigarh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh during 2nd till 6th August. There will be a lot of moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal towards the north east India, after a period of lul phase, rains are all set to revive over Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh to experience good rains across this week. Irrespective of increase in rains in east or north-east India pan-India rainfall is expected to be way less in the country, if we compare week on week as the larger states such as Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Gujarat will experience below normal rains as no active weather system is in peripheral, rains in these states will mainly be localised is spread and light to moderate in intensity. The decreasing trend of rainfall in west and central India starting this week is also indicating an approaching break in monsoon condition for the first time in this season by the weekend or early next week, typically the break stays for a week or sometimes extends up to two weeks. The long range weather prediction models continue to hint for a monsoon break in the second and third week of August, after a hefty July, August might fall in line for a deficient month, if things don’t change suddenly although rains would make a comeback in the last few days of the month but statistics won’t move much, also the impact of El Nino is shaping up it is well known for its impact on the extended monsoon-break. The writer, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._   Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.