Democracy, drugs or oil: Trump’s plot to overthrow Maduro

Every 10 years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall just to show the world we mean business

— Michael Ledeen, American Enterprise Institute speech, 1992

First Afghanistan, then Iraq and now Venezuela—all “small crappy little” countries targeted by the United States.

A series of 15 American airstrikes on vessels in the Caribbean and the Pacific allegedly belonging to alleged narco-terrorists—the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua (TdA) and the Colombian guerrilla group National Liberation Army—and carrying drugs, have killed 63 people.

Unsurprisingly, Donald Trump hasn’t provided an iota of evidence of the vessels trafficking drugs.

Yet, in the largest American naval deployment in the Caribbean Sea since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the world’s largest and most advanced and lethal aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is headed to Venezuela. The aircraft carrier houses the F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, E-2D Advanced Hawkeyes, EA-18G Growlers and SH-60 Seahawk multi-mission helicopters.

Eight US warships, nuclear submarine USS Newport News and 4,500 Marines and sailors have already been deployed.

The US Army and the Air Force have also deployed assets in the region.

The Army has deployed the AH-6 Little Bird and MH-60M Black Hawk attack copters, used for special operations. Besides, 10,000 troops are in the US territory of Puerto Rico.

The Air Force has flown the B-1 (having the second-largest payload in the world) and the nuclear-capable B-52 long-range strategic bombers near Venezuelan airspace thrice in two weeks. Besides, 10 F-35Bs and two to three MQ-9 Reaper drones are deployed in Puerto Rico.

All these assets belong to a country ranked 1st of 145 countries in the annual  Global Firepower review  and have been deployed against a nation ranked 50th.

Trump alleges that Venezuela traffics huge quantities of cocaine to the US.

The actual reasons are different.

 Ledeen Doctrine and Iraq War

The late Ledeen, a neoconservative and a war-monger, was a consultant to the US National Security Council, the State Department and the Department of Defense (now Department of War). He was involved in the Iran-Contra affair and the Iraq-Niger yellowcake forgery and was a fierce proponent of attacking Iran and Iraq.

The “ Ledeen Doctrine ” preceded the Bush Doctrine, shaped by the post-9/11 ‘War on Terror’. George W Bush called for a preventive strike against countries, including regime change, that might harbour terrorists or possess WMDs rather than waiting to be attacked.

Ledeen, however, wanted the US to attack Iraq before 9/11. The US “desperately needed a long overdue war against Saddam Hussein”, he said, reiterating the “dire need to invade Iraq”.

The term “Ledeen Doctrine” was first used by Jonah Goldberg, an American conservative journalist, author and political commentator and editor at National Review, in his column on April 23, 2002.

“For now, let’s fall back on the Ledeen Doctrine. The United States needs to go to war with Iraq because it needs to go to war with someone in the region, and Iraq makes the most sense,” Goldberg wrote.

Yes, Iraq made the most sense—Afghanistan wasn’t enough.

The US was eager to reestablish its dominance in West Asia after the 9/11 blow and warn Libya, Syria and Iran.

The Saddam Hussein regime had survived the Gulf War and was the best bet for a second American target practice in the region. Otherwise, how would the massive US military-industrial complex prove the lethality of its weapons?

Two years before the Iraq invasion, then-secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld argued twice that toppling Saddam was the best way to portray American power in the region.

9/11 was the perfect excuse.

Veep Dick Cheney wanted to send a message. Rumsfeld and his war dogs snarled.

“If the war does not significantly change the world’s political map, the U.S. will not achieve its aim. … The USG [US government] should envision a goal along these lines: New regimes in Afghanistan and another key State (or two) that supports terrorism,” Rummy wrote in a memo sent to Bush on September 30, 2001.

The US and its allies invaded Iraq in March 2003 on the lame excuse that Saddam had ties to al-Qaeda and possessed WMDs.

Cheney and his puppet Bush, dismissing the CIA’s conclusion that Saddam had no ties to al-Qaeda, believed the contrary bogus information provided by Iraqi political dissenter, fraudster and former CIA operative Ahmed Chalabi. In 2008, the Pentagon concluded that Saddam had no operational ties to al-Qaeda.

The US believed the fabricated WMD intel provided by Iraqi defector Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi, aka “Curveball”. However, neither the IAEA nor the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission found WMDs in Iraq.

The rest is history.

 Iraqi Oil and American Invasion

The Iraqi oil, besides overthrowing Saddam, was a major reason for the American invasion.

Despite repeated denials by the Bush administration, then-Republican senator from Nebraska, Chuck Hagel, who had voted in favour of the Iraq Resolution—which authorised the war—said in September 2006, “People say we’re not fighting for oil. Of course, we are.”

Hagel, appointed the defense secretary in Barack Obama’s second term, told Catholic University law students that it was about oil, not national interest. “They talk about America’s national interest. What the hell do you think they’re talking about? We’re not there for figs.”

Similarly, former CENTCOM chief John Abizaid told an audience at Stanford University in October 2007 that “of course it’s about oil; we can’t really deny that”.

Iraq had the world’s fifth-largest proven oil reserves.

In 1972, Saddam nationalised the Iraqi Petroleum Company (IPC), which had monopolised oil exploration and production, barring foreign oil firms.

The US eyed Iraq’s massive and largely underexploited oil reserves—and war was the only way to seize the black gold.

Not even two weeks into office, Bush formed the Cheney-headed National Energy Policy Development Group, which submitted a  report in May 2001  arguing for foreign investment in the energy sectors of West Asian nations.

After the invasion, the US pressured the Iraqi government to pass the 2007 Iraq Hydrocarbons Law, advocating for the opening of the energy sector to private foreign investment.

When the law couldn’t be passed due to public opposition, the US bypassed Iraq’s parliament. In 2008, a group of American advisers assisted the Nouri al-Maliki government in  signing contracts  with ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Total to develop some of the largest oil fields.

Ten years down the line, Western oil giants—ExxonMobil, Chevron, Halliburton, BP and Shell—started reaping the profits in Iraq. However, by 2021, Western oil companies, especially Shell and ExxonMobil, started exiting Iraq due to unfavourable contract terms, delayed payments, political instability, corruption and lack of security.

Now, the same oil companies are returning to Iraq. The reason is simple.

Whenever the US invades a nation or triggers a coup, it wants the new leader to be compliant. For example, the US propped up Ayad Allawi in Iraq and Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan.

Iraqi PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, a consensus candidate in 2022 without popular support, faces an election in November. His Reconstruction and Development Coalition must win, at least, 60 seats, to form a government. He has realised the American political influence oil can buy. In the last two months, Western oil majors signed mega deals with Iraq.

Al-Sudani has also allowed 250-350 military advisers and troops to remain at Ain al-Asad air base (west) and the al-Harir air base (north) to support coordination with Syria’s al-Tanf base in countering the Islamic State. In 2024, the US and Iraq decided to withdraw troops from Ain al-Asad by September-end this year.

 Venezuela: Democracy, Drugs or Oil

In his [aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/-freedom-betrayed_153929998904.pdf?x85095]1996 book Freedom Betrayed: How America Led a Global Democratic Revolution, Won the Cold War, and Walked Away, Ledeen regrets that the US didn’t fight for democracy after the Cold War.

Ledeen advocated the overthrow of hostile governments in the name of democracy. According to him, the US was the torchbearer of democracy.

“Unfortunately, we have failed to accept that we are condemned to lead the forces of democracy,” he writes.

According to him, the US has “an enormous stake in seeing that the new democracies succeed. … In the short term, our failure will encourage new tyrants, who will inevitably challenge us,” writes Ledeen, who advocated attacking Iran long before the Iraq invasion.

In reality, the US has been the biggest tyrant—bombing nations that are no match for its vast firepower and blowing their innocent civilians to pieces to restore democracy or eliminate terrorists.

Similarly, the US has a history of destabilising Latin American countries by orchestrating coups—Ecuador (1963), Brazil (1964), Chile (1964), Bolivia (1964) and Panama (1981)—in the name of democracy.

Venezuela, which has a history of four coups d’état (1908-1958), has been in America’s crosshairs since Hugo Chávez became president.

Chávez rattled the US due to his increasing control of oil and his support for other anti-US dictators.

Venezuela nationalised oil in 1976 by creating Petroleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA), and was exporting around 2 million barrels per day to the US in the late 1990s and early 20002. After Chávez was elected president, oil exports tanked as he restructured PDVSA, plagued by mismanagement and low investment.

Chávez soon became America’s bête noire. Ideologically opposed to the US, he publicly lambasted American imperialist foreign policy in Latin America and elsewhere, demanded more royalties from Western oil firms operating in his country, and aligned with anti-US leaders like Fidel Castro, Muammar Gaddafi and Bashar al-Assad.

On April 11, 2002, Chávez was ousted by the Venezuelan military and replaced with pro-Opposition businessman Pedro Carmona as interim president. However, Chávez returned after 47 hours following clashes between his supporters and security forces, prompting Carmona to go into exile.

Chávez accused the US of orchestrating the coup. According to  The Observer , the coup plotters, including Carmona, visited the White House many times months before the coup. Three top Bush officials, Elliot Abrams, Otto Reich and John Negroponte—who all served in late President Ronald Reagan’s dirty wars—were involved in the coup.

The US wanted Chávez out but failed.

Now, the US wants Chávez’s protégé and current president,  Nicolás Maduro, out—again in the name of democracy and for trafficking drugs.

After the disputed 2018 election, Juan Guaidó, the president of the Opposition-controlled National Assembly, declared himself the interim president in January 2019.

Despite around 60 nations, including the US during Trump’s first term, recognising Guaidó, Maduro remained the de facto leader and cut off ties with the US.

The US stopped supporting Guaidó after the National Assembly voted to dissolve his interim government in January 2023 due to corruption. Fearing arrest, Guaidó fled to the US in April.

Maduro bounced back to power in the 2024 election, which was again disputed as former diplomat Edmundo González was widely viewed as the legitimate winner, especially by the US. Subsequently, González fled to Spain. Since then, Maduro has ruled with an iron hand.

Now, the US is desperate to topple Maduro—but the façade of democracy isn’t enough.

So, it’s drugs now, another pathetic American excuse to target Venezuela.

In the last year of Trump’s first term, Maduro and 14 members of his inner circle were  charged  with narco-terrorism, drug trafficking in collusion with Colombian FARC rebels, money laundering and corruption.

Trump wants to target cocaine-producing facilities and trafficking routes inside Venezuela.

However, 84 per cent of the cocaine seized in the US is of Colombian origin, not Venezuelan, according to the US Drug Enforcement Administration’s March  report , titled ‘DEA 2025 National Drug Threat Assessment’.

The report doesn’t even mention Venezuela—it cites Ecuador, Central America and Mexico as the major trafficking hubs.

The top three cocaine producers are Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, accounting for 99 per cent of the world’s cocaine production, per the  United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

Similarly, UNODC’s  2025 World Drug Report  found that only five per cent of Colombian drugs are trafficked through Venezuela.

While Trump has viciously attacked Maduro, he’s silent on Ecuador. Located between Colombia and Peru, Ecuador is a major cocaine trafficking hub and transit nation from where drugs are smuggled to the US and Europe.

According to President Daniel Noboa, 70 per cent of the world’s cocaine now flows through Ecuadorean ports.

Trump’s silence on Ecuador isn’t shocking. Noboa is a Trump ally and believes in his strongman tactics. The leaders met at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in March before Noboa’s re-election. The details of the meeting were never made public. Ecuador is also interested in hosting an American military base.

The US designated TdA as a foreign terrorist organisation on February 20 and Cartel de los Soles, an informal Venezuelan criminal organisation, as a specially designated global terrorist on July 25.

Trump has alleged that Maduro controls TdA and Cartel de los Soles. However, neither of them is mentioned in the DEA and the UNODC reports.

An Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)  memo  in April concluded that Maduro “probably does not have a policy of cooperating with TdA and is not directing TdA movement to and operations in the United States”.

However, Trump is infamous for berating his own intelligence community. In 2016, his transition team dismissed the CIA for concluding that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election. In 2018, he dismissed the FBI’s report of Russian election interference.

Similarly, Trump has ignored the DEA and UNODC drug reports and the ODNI memo to target Venezuela.

Trump has authorised the CIA to carry out covert operations in Venezuela. In the latest development, as reported by the Miami Herald, the  US has identified military facilities in Venezuela  allegedly used to smuggle drugs for airstrikes. Trump has denied the report.

Trump’s actions are reminiscent of Bush’s assertion that Iraq had WMDs and was linked to al-Qaeda and even to 9/11. For example, Cheney mentioned the Czech claim that an informant saw Iraqi intelligence officer Ahmed Khalil Ibrahim Samir al Ani meeting Mohammed Atta, the ringleader of 9/11, in Prague in April 2001. Then-CIA director George Tenet dismissed Cheney’s claim before the Senate in 2004 as Atta was in Florida at that time.

So, the reason for targeting Venezuela is neither democracy nor drugs—it’s again oil.

Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves  (303 billion barrels). Saudi Arabia is second (267 Bbbl), Iran third (209 Bbbl), Canada fourth (163 Bbbl) and Iraq fifth (145 Bbbl).

However, Venezuela exported only $4.05 billion worth of crude oil in 2023, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Libya, which has 48 Bbbl, exported crude oil worth $31.3 billion.

The major reasons for Venezuela’s low oil export are US sanctions, old infrastructure at refineries and old technology.

Trump slapped sanctions on Venezuela in 2017 and tightened them in 2019, restricting exports to the US and other Western nations. Gradually, China became a big market for Venezuelan oil.

The Joe Biden administration granted Chevron a licence to resume limited production and exports in November 2022. After his return, Trump imposed a 25 per cent tariff on all goods imported into the US from any nation importing Venezuelan oil.

In March, the US revoked licences of around six foreign joint venture (JV) partners of PDVSA, including Chevron, Maurel & Prom, Repsol and Eni, due to migration issues and the lack of progress toward restoring democracy.

However, Chevron was granted a restricted private licence in July to operate with the condition that the revenue earned from sales can’t be transferred to the Maduro administration. The Chevron licence followed after Venezuela secured the return of 252 migrants deported by the US to El Salvador.

The US wants Chevron in Venezuela, in case, Maduro is toppled. Other Western oil giants will follow—like they did in Iraq.

Maduro has publicly said that the US is targeting his country due to oil. “They want regime change, and why is that? So they can install a puppet government to take control of Venezuela’s oil.”

Maduro’s statement is supported by Trump’s rejection of Venezuela’s offer of a dominant American stake in oil and minerals like gold, iron and bauxite.

In discussions with Richard Grenell, the US special presidential envoy for special missions, lasting for months, Maduro’s top aides offered preferential oil and gold contracts to American companies.

Maduro even offered to export more oil to the US than to China, which accounted for around 84 per cent of Venezuela’s oil exports in September. To appease Trump, Maduro has also stopped exporting oil to Cuba.

However, Trump rejected Maduro’s offer and asked Grenell in early October to stop negotiating with the Venezuelan strongman. On October 17, Trump boasted that Maduro “ offered everything ” because “he doesn’t want to fu*k around with the United States”.

The reason for Trump’s rejection of Maduro’s offers was his secretary of state and acting NSA, Marco Rubio.

Even as a Florida senator, Rubio called for regime change in Venezuela, which, according to him, was “a threat to the region and to the US”. Rubio’s hatred towards leftist Latin nations, like Venezuela and Cuba, is personal. A Cuban-American, his parents migrated to the US (Miami, Florida) in 1956, three years before Fidel Castro assumed power.

Going against Trump’s non-interventionist policy, Rubio, once his rival in the 2016presidential race, managed to convince the president to intervene in Venezuela.

Finally, Rubio reduced Grenell’s efforts to negotiate with Maduro, a “fugitive from American justice”, to rubble.

The most conspiratorial aspect of the sudden American interest in restoring democracy in Venezuela is Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, barred by Maduro from contesting the 2024 election.

The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, who went into hiding in August 2024, supports US armed intervention to topple Machado and the  airstrikes on vessels  allegedly smuggling drugs.

“Finally, this is happening,” she told a Bloomberg podcast on October 31. “These deaths are the responsibility of Nicolás Maduro.”

Ironically, the Nobel Committee awarded her the prize for “her struggle to achieve a just and  peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy ” in Venezuela.

Machado’s war-mongering has divided the eight-party Opposition alliance, Unitary Platform. Two-time presidential candidate Henrique Capriles has rejected American military intervention and called for renewed negotiations with Maduro.

The US, however, has Machado’s back—again for oil.

Connecting the dots in the Machado-Trump saga reveals the conspiracy to unseat Maduro.

In August 2024, Rubio and Florida representative Mike Waltz (Rubio’s predecessor as NSA) sign a letter addressed to the Nobel Committee nominating Machado for the prize for her “unyielding dedication to the pursuit of peace and democratic ideals”.

Trump starts targeting the supposedly drug-smuggling vessels in early September. Machado bags the Nobel in October and dedicates it to Trump. Trump deploys massive military assets against Venezuela.

It was later revealed that  Machado was plotting Maduro’s ouster  days before Trump’s second inauguration.

On January 6, Machado’s four representatives met Waltz at Capitol Hill with her joining via video call. The meeting was held to urge the US to adopt an aggressive stance against Maduro.

Machado’s team met Waltz and Rubio eight times between January and April to convince the duo that Maduro controlled TdA and to further pressure the dictator.

In February, Machado told Donald Trump Jr in an  interview  that she wants to privatise Venezuela’s oil industry so that Venezuela becomes “the brightest opportunity for investment of American companies”.

“We’re going to kick [out] the government from the oil sector. We’re going to privatise all our industry,” she added.

“Venezuela has huge resources: oil, gas, minerals, land and technology. And, as you said before, we have a strategic location, you know, hours from the United States. So, we’re going to do this right. We know what we have to do. And American companies are in, you know, a super strategic position to invest.

While Grenell was negotiating with Maduro’s top aides, Machado made her oil offer to Trump—not crumbs but millions of barrels a day.

“Our message to the oil companies is: We want you here, certainly,” Machado told US corporate representatives in June.

“We want you here, not producing crumbs of a couple of hundred thousand barrels a day. We want you here producing millions of barrels a day.”

(The writer is a freelance journalist with more than two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. He tweets as @FightTheBigots. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)