Vantage | You can force people to have fewer kids not more

In the ever-evolving landscape of global demographics, the vitality of a nation often hinges on its ability to manage and harness its greatest asset: its people. While natural resources and geographic location are undeniably crucial, the utilisation of these assets relies fundamentally on human resources.

France’s demographic crisis

France, traditionally an outlier in Western Europe with a stable population, is now grappling with a demographic crisis. Recent statistics reveal a significant decline in the birth rate, with 678,000 births recorded last year, marking a 7 per cent decrease from 2022 and a substantial 20 per cent drop since its peak in 2020. This decline poses a threat to the nation’s future as its population faces the prospect of shrinking.

President Emmanuel Macron recognises the urgency of the situation and has proposed reforms to parental leave policies. Currently, parents have access to basic maternity leave and an additional one-year leave, which is inadequately compensated and often disconnects women from the job market. Macron’s proposed changes aim to allow both parents to take six months of well-compensated leave, thereby addressing the economic and societal factors hindering family growth.

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“After the extension of paternity leave, I strongly believe that the introduction of a new childbirth leave will be a useful element in such a strategy. Childbirth leave will replace current parental leave. Firstly it will be better paid, it will allow both parents to be with their child for six months if they so wish,” said President Macron.

Despite the historically positive demographic trends in France, recent polls indicate a shift in perspective. Economic concerns and the impact of climate change were cited by 30 per cent of French couples as reasons for not having children. Additionally, 28 per cent expressed concerns about the high cost of raising children. This shift suggests that external factors, rather than a cultural aversion to children, are impeding family expansion.

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China’s demographic challenge

In stark contrast, China is contending with a prolonged decline in population attributed, in part, to its rapid economic growth. The implementation of the one-child policy in the 1980s significantly impacted the birth rate, dropping from around 17 per 1,000 people to 6.4. Although the policy was relaxed in 2015 and expanded in 2021 to allow three children per couple, China continues to face demographic challenges.

China’s economic slowdown and a competitive job market have led to a staggering 21 per cent youth unemployment rate. The financial burden of raising a family, compounded by the high cost of marriage, deters many young Chinese from starting families. Incentives introduced by Beijing, such as subsidies and payments, have not yielded the desired results, indicating a complex interplay of economic and social factors.

China’s demographic challenge has broader implications for its future. With an aging population and a declining workforce, there is a looming burden on social welfare and healthcare systems. The need for a youthful demographic is crucial, especially for a nation aspiring to be a global superpower and compete with countries like the United States, whose population continues to grow.

A 32-year-old entrepreneur and mixer attendee, Victor Li said, “It’s very expensive for us to get married, especially in a big city like Shanghai. For example, if we get married, we need a place to settle down, and having a house is definitely an essential. Very few people, perhaps very few women, would be willing to rent a house with a man, then get married. So in terms of financial ability, it actually puts a lot of pressure on young people, including myself.”

The demographic challenges faced by France and China underscore the delicate balance between economic, societal and governmental factors in shaping population dynamics. While France has the advantage of being a wealthy and open society, China faces a more complex situation due to economic disparities. The contrasting approaches of these nations serve as valuable lessons in the intricate realm of demographic policy-making, emphasizing the need for holistic strategies that address both economic and societal aspects to foster sustainable population growth.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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