Vantage | Will the West stop funding Ukraine's war effort?

Staying with the Russian president, his bet in Ukraine is finally paying off. It has taken more than 600 days, but it’s happening. Western countries are losing interest in the war. Ukraine’s funding is about to stop. If it does, it is game over for Kyiv. The United States (US), biggest supporter of Ukraine, has given some 40 billion dollars in military aid to Ukraine in two years. But the US lawmakers, especially the republican ones, say no more. President Joe Biden had presented a budget plan to the US Congress asking for 106 billion dollars which included funds for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The Congress did give money to Israel, but not in the case of Ukraine. Republicans have been pushing an ‘America first policy’ meaning, no spending on foreign wars.

A White House official has written to congressional leaders. Her warning is pretty dire: “If US financial support ends, it would kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield, not only putting at risk the gains Ukraine has made, but increasing the likelihood of Russian military victories” which in simple words means — Ukraine will lose. And there is no back-up fund or support. The pentagon has used up 97 per cent of its allotted funds. The state department has used up 100 per cent. So by the end of this year aid will stop. There will be no more money to give. “Without congressional action, the administration will run out of resources by the end of the year to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks without impacting our own military readiness,” said Jake Sullivan, US National Security Adviser. Congress has to decide whether to continue to support the fight for freedom in Ukraine, as part of the 50 nation coalition that President Biden has built, or whether Congress will ignore the lessons we have learned from history and let Putin prevail. Without US aid, it’s just a matter of time. Kyiv could fall within weeks or months which brings us to two important questions: First, can congress still strike a deal? And second, what about Ukraine’s allies in Europe? Congress can strike a deal as we have seen last-minute talks on the debt ceiling. No reason the same cannot happen for Ukraine. Plus, the republicans have shown their cards, they want tougher immigration and border laws. If they get that, they will green light the money. So it’s a question of negotiating hard — a question of who blinks first. As for the second question, the answer is more complicated. In the US you have to convince two parties. In Europe, you have to convince 27 members of the EU, who are right now negotiating a budget that includes a 54 billion dollar fund for Ukraine. It’s a long term fund, the idea behind which is to keep Ukraine afloat until 2027. But there is a problem that not everyone is onboard. Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban is opposing the proposal. He is using his position to gain an advantage. Brussels is supposed to give 24 billion dollars to Hungary. Orban needs that money, but the EU leadership has put a freeze on it. The EU says Hungary has rule-of-law issues and Budapest will have to fix that first. So Orban flips the strategy. He now threatens to block the EU budget instead. It’s a classic case of brinkmanship. But for Ukraine, it’s a matter of survival. The winter has already set in and Russia has begun striking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. If foreign funding stops, Kyiv will fall and Putin knows this. In fact, he knew it all along. Putin was betting on Western support and unity crumbling, and he was right about that, but what he got wrong was the time table. Does that mean it is game over? Well, this is early December and we have an entire month before time runs out. In politics, one month can be a long time. The Congress could still strike a new deal, the EU could still accommodate Hungary, so the war isn’t over just yet, but it has exposed the drawbacks of this Western alliance — of how fragile the support is. The regime in Kyiv should take note of that. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.