Vantage | Why Putin is proposing talks with Ukraine

On December 20, 2023, Russia-Ukraine war entered on its 665th day. In this time, we’ve seen the momentum swing. First, a Russian blitzkrieg, and then a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Then a stalemate, and now another Russian onslaught. It’s clear that Moscow has the edge. Which is why Vladimir Putin’s latest comments have raised eyebrows. On Tuesday, Putin had two key meetings, one of which was with soldiers who fought in Ukraine. He awarded them Russia’s gold star. It’s the top military honour. After that, the Russian president met with his top military aides. He told them that he was ready to negotiate with Ukraine and the West. “We won’t interfere, but we won’t give up our territory. This is what everyone in Ukraine, Europe, and the USA—everyone who is aggressive towards Russia—should understand. If they want to negotiate, let them negotiate. We will only do it based on our interests," said Putin.

So that’s Putin’s message: We will talk, but on our terms. The question is, why? After all, Putin has the battlefield advantage. So why is he eyeing a political settlement? Maybe he wants to negotiate from a position of strength. Maybe he fears the momentum will swing again. Or maybe he knows the West will turn him down anyway. In which case, there’s nothing to lose. The Kremlin has now clarified Putin’s remarks. It says there is no basis for talks now. Apparently, the conditions are not good. Then why did Putin offer negotiations? Well, there’s no point speculating. Let’s look at the battlefield first. Russia controls more than 17 percent of Ukraine’s land, this year, Kyiv launched a counteroffensive to take back some of it. But the operation failed. So Ukraine is stuck. Meanwhile, Russia is putting more men on the ground. It’s being called a relentless assault. Also, the airstrikes continue, Russia has launched five aerial raids this month. The latest was on Tuesday. As many as 19 drones targeted Kyiv, Odessa and Kherson. These air raids are not just about damage. It’s about psychology. It’s about turning Ukrainians against their leadership. And looks like it’s working. A new opinion poll has been published in Ukraine. It looks at public trust, 62 percent people have trust in Volodymyr Zelenskyy, though it sounds a lot, as most Western leaders are stuck below 50. But in December last year, Zelensky polled much higher. It was then close to 84 percent. So in one year, his ratings have dropped 22 percent. That’s a huge drop. At the same time, trust in the army is unshaken, 96 percent Ukrainians trust the military. As many as 88 percent trust the Commander-in-Chief. The same man who said the war is at a stalemate. So what is Zelenskyy doing? On Tuesday, he organised a year-end press conference. It looks like it’s the new fad in town! Zelenskyy says Russia has not achieved any victory. “Russia did not achieve any victory. Our fighters have done well, people have done well. I am once again grateful to them for this. As for financial assistance, we are working very hard on it. I am sure that the United States of America will not betray us and that what we have achieved with the United States will be fulfilled,” said the Ukrainian president. So Zelenskyy is betting on the US which is a risky bet. American senators say aid will not be approved before the new year. The US House is already on holiday. So this winter will be tough which brings us to the peace deal. Is there one on the table? Zelenskyy had proposed a 10 point formula last year. The formula had proposals that asked Russia to withdraw all its soldiers and respect Ukraine’s borders, while Europe must guarantee Kyiv’s future security. It also demanded trial of Russian soldiers for war crimes. But for Putin, it was a non-starter. He will never agree to these terms. So the question is will Zelenskyy make concessions? He proposed the peace plan in August last year. But two months later, he signed a new decree. He outlawed any negotiations with Putin. This was after Russia formally annexed Ukrainian land. But 2023 has been a year of setbacks for Ukraine. Could that force Zelenskyy’s hand? The Kremlin says the West won’t let it happen. That is right. Russia claims Britain asked Ukraine to withdraw from the peace talks. Now, that’s a massive allegation. Neither Kyiv, nor London has reacted yet. But it’s a big claim to make. And if true, it is a problem because Zelenskyy will negotiate only if the West wants him to. And which Western leader will do that? Some do appear interested, like French President Emmanul Macron. He says he would still take calls from the Russian president. “If President Putin has a willingness to engage in dialogue and serious proposals to move forward and emerge from the conflict and build a lasting peace, that is to say one that respects international law and therefore Ukrainian interests and sovereignty, I’ll take the call — and will spare no effort to obtain a result,” he said. It will be a test of leadership. Putin has elections coming up in March 2024. He will win, no doubt. But how does he want to start his next term? As a war-time leader? Or with a fresh start? Same with Zelenskyy. He always knew he couldn’t win this war. But now, he could lose it. So both Putin and Zelenskyy have many factors to weigh, like legacy, politics, and strategy. If they stick to the battlefield, there will only be one winner. That’s how wars work. However, if they negotiate, more possibilities open up. Let’s see what they choose. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.