Vantage | Why Myanmar's rebel trouble looks like China's game

In recent weeks, Myanmar has witnessed a significant surge in rebellion, with a coalition of rebel groups forming the “Brotherhood Alliance” and launching an offensive against the country’s military junta. This uprising, which began in the northeastern state of Shan, has now spread across the entire northern region of Myanmar, marking a significant shift in the conflict. In addition to the rebel alliance, various groups and individuals have taken up arms against the military junta, indicating widespread discontent with the regime. The Brotherhood Alliance’s challenge The Brotherhood Alliance, comprising three rebel groups, has emerged as a formidable force with around 15,000 fighters. Their goal is to challenge the military junta and potentially overthrow the military dictatorship that has ruled Myanmar for years. The rebels have made substantial gains, including the capture of Kawlin City, a city located approximately 250 kilometres north of Mandalay, Myanmar’s most populous city. This development represents a significant blow to the junta, which had concentrated its power in the eastern region. In addition to the territorial losses, the military junta suffered a severe blow with the reported loss of a colonel in the conflict. This setback prompted an emergency meeting of the junta’s generals, indicating their concern and the severity of the situation. China’s strategic interests While the ongoing rebellion may seem like an opportunity for democracy-loving rebels to challenge the junta’s rule, a closer examination reveals a more complex situation. China, a neighbouring country, has a significant stake in the conflict due to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China aims to construct the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, including a vital railway connecting China’s Yunnan province to the Bay of Bengal. Publicly, China has expressed concern for the safety of its BRI project and has sent senior ministers to mediate the conflict. However, behind the scenes, China’s role in the crisis is questionable. The rebel groups in Shan State have close ties to China’s security establishment and receive weapon supplies from China. This raises concerns about China’s prior knowledge of the rebellion and its motives in Myanmar. The fighting in Myanmar places China’s BRI railway project at risk. However, it has also pushed the railway line closer to completion. If China can persuade the rebel groups to halt their offensive, it would protect its project and emerge as a peacemaker. This scenario raises questions about China’s intentions and whether it is playing a strategic game in Myanmar. “China is paying close attention to the conflict situation in northern Myanmar, expresses strong dissatisfaction with the escalation of the armed conflict and the casualties caused to Chinese personnel, and has lodged solemn protest with relevant parties. China once again demands that all parties involved in the conflict in northern Myanmar immediately cease fire and take realistic measures to prevent any incidents that endanger the lives and property of people in China’s border areas from happening again. China will take necessary measures to safeguard the lives and property of its citizens,” said Wang Wenbin, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson. Myanmar’s escalating rebellion against the military junta is a significant development with far-reaching consequences. While it appears to be a struggle for democracy and human rights, the involvement of China and its strategic interests add complexity to the situation. As the conflict unfolds, the world watches with concern, wondering if Myanmar’s moment of reckoning has arrived, or if larger geopolitical forces will shape the outcome. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.