Vantage | Why Myanmar's rebel alliance has left China so worried

Myanmar is at war with itself once again. But this time, the fire could end up burning China. Rebels in the jungles of north Myanmar are up in arms, literally. Three major groups have joined forces; they’re calling themselves the Brotherhood Alliance. The alliance has about 15,000 fighters. And they’ve trained their guns on Myanmar’s ruling military junta. The groups have fought the junta for years. But this new attack seems to be meeting with success. It began last Friday when the Brotherhood Alliance confronted the military. It happened in Myanmar’s Shan state. It is a region that borders China. The rebel alliance besieged military bases in Shan. Videos have been released by the rebels that purportedly show them gaining ground.

In one such video, it shows the rebels with weapons and a military vehicle, captured from the junta forces. The video was allegedly shot at an abandoned military base. Reports say some soldiers are fleeing. Others are surrendering in the face of the rebel offensive. And the rebel alliance is capturing land, swathes of territory in northern Myanmar, in the Shan state, they claim to have taken four major towns, including a strategic trading hub named Chinshwehaw, near the Chinese border. Myanmar’s ruling junta has confirmed this. They’ve confirmed that they lost this vital city, and this has got China extremely worried. “China is paying close attention to the conflict situation in northern Myanmar, and urges all parties to immediately cease fire and stop fighting, persist in resolving differences through peaceful means using dialogue and consultation, avoid escalation of the situation, and take practical and effective measures to ensure the security and stability of the China-Myanmar border,” Wang Wenbin, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson. But why is China so worked up? Because of the location of the captured town, Chinshwehaw lies on a major China-Myanmar trade route. Between April and September this year, over a quarter of the trade between China and Myanmar went through this route. Total border trade between the two countries is about 1.8 billion dollars. So about half a billion passed through this town. And now the rebels control it. So trade will take a hit. But that isn’t all. China’s future plans are also at stake. Especially their Belt and Road projects in Myanmar. Violence in this region poses a risk to the BRI. In this case, to the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. It’s a billion dollar project. China has planned a billion-dollar railway line. It will connect China with these cities in Myanmar. The new route would allow China to reach the Bay of Bengal by rail. So you can see why the project is lucrative. But now, it’s at risk. The rebel offensive threatens to derail China’s plans. On Tuesday, China’s public security minister met with Myanmar’s junta chief. Beijing wants to stop the fighting and secure its railway. And this has been a concern for years, China has served as a mediator in the past as well. Earlier this year, it tried to get various rebel groups to agree to a ceasefire. But it seems, that didn’t work. So what next? Beijing has invested billions in the region. It has supported Myanmar’s junta since it took power in 2021, with trade, weapons and whatever else they needed. It is almost a master-puppet relationship. Considering this, China won’t let the rebel alliance beat Myanmar’s junta. It will use every trick in the book to crush dissent.  Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.