Vantage | Why Myanmar's civil war is dangerous for India

In the complex landscape of military rule, Myanmar stands as a glaring example of a regime reluctant to admit defeat. The recent events in the country have sparked global interest as even the appointed president acknowledged the risk of Myanmar breaking apart – a rare admission by military leadership. This shift in rhetoric is propelled by a longstanding civil war, an issue persisting since the aftermath of World War II.

Persistent civil war For nearly seven decades, Myanmar has grappled with internal strife with the Shan State in Northern Myanmar becoming a focal point of the conflict. Bordered by China to the north, Laos to the east and Thailand to the south, this region’s jungles and hills provide the perfect backdrop for insurgency. Three ethnic armies, supported by various militant groups, have taken up arms against the Myanmar junta, which seized power in 2021. The insurgency’s rapid progress, capturing military posts, towns and key roads to the China border, has left the military government visibly concerned for the first time. India’s dual challenge The repercussions of Myanmar’s internal conflict extend beyond its borders, especially concerning neighbouring India. With a 1,600-kilometre-long border shared with four Indian states—Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur, India faces the potential spillover of violence and an influx of refugees. The border region is home to multiple insurgent groups with a history of confronting the Myanmar army. India fears that these groups may exploit the Shan offensive to attack the junta, exacerbating the existing refugee crisis and complicating matters in states like Manipur, already grappling with internal conflicts. India’s historically professional relationship with the Myanmar junta, even during democratic periods, is at risk due to the ongoing civil war. Beyond security concerns, Myanmar’s neighbours, including India, are apprehensive about the flourishing drug trade in the Shan State, known for narcotics production. China’s unease Even China, a political supporter of the Shan rebels, is concerned about the escalation of the conflict. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has issued a protest urging an immediate ceasefire to protect the lives and property safety of the Chinese people in the border areas. “We have lodged a solemn protest with the parties concerned. We once again demand that all parties to the conflict in northern Myanmar immediately cease fire and take concrete measures to prevent the recurrence of the situation that harms the Chinese people’s lives and property safety in the border areas,” said Wang Wenbin, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson. As Myanmar’s military holds air superiority over insurgents, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining the course of the conflict. While the military junta may possess formidable capabilities, recent events have shown that they are not invincible. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.