Vantage | Why Myanmar rebels' Operation 1027 is a worry for India

In Myanmar, the Junta’s grip on power is being tested. Rebel groups are mounting attacks. The offensive began some three weeks ago. It has only intensified since the rebels have inflicted heavy damage on Myanmar’s military. They are losing both outposts and people. What is the extent of the junta’s losses? At least nine towns, and more than 150 outposts and military bases. And where are these towns? Six are in northern Myanmar, and three are in the northwest. These towns used to be military strongholds. They had local battalions there. But despite decades of control, the military couldn’t stop the rebels. Three groups have joined hands: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Arakan Army. And they pose a serious threat because they haven’t just taken territory; they are also seizing military assets.

Reports say the region has lost six tanks and some armoured vehicles. The junta was caught off-guard and possibly outmatched. According to local media reports, over 300 soldiers and militia allies have surrendered. Around 40 of them tried to escape to India. They crossed into India’s Manipur state. Indian forces caught them. And they have been shipped back to Myanmar. Reports say the Junta is struggling to respond; a counteroffensive was supposed to begin, but it has been delayed. The military has conducted a series of airstrikes, and they have also used heavy artillery, mostly to slow down the rebels. But these measures have been ineffective, and some troops have been called back. They were manning smaller outposts in the north, near the areas where the rebels struck. The military has asked them to retreat to join the forces at bigger strongholds. It seems the junta doesn’t know what they’re up against. The situation is still evolving. So the information is limited. The rebels have given this offensive a name “Operation 1027”. And what is its goal? To challenge the rule of the army and control a significant portion of Myanmar. This is a large-scale effort. The Brotherhood Alliance has mobilised in large numbers. How many fighters? At least 20 thousand. They are said to be taking part in this operation. The end game is to make the military regime irrelevant. A few days ago, the Brotherhood issued a statement: “Our primary objectives in launching this operation are multi-faceted. We are dedicated to eradicating the oppressive military dictatorship, a shared aspiration of the entire Myanmar population.” So the military has a challenge on its hands, but the generals aren’t the only ones feeling uneasy. This offensive is a worry for India too. The rebels are fighting near the Indian border. On Monday, they went after two military camps, which were next to Mizoram, an Indian state in the northeast. And this situation is a tricky one; the offensive happened in Chin state. The Chin rebellion was backed by locals in Mizoram, in part due to close ethnic ties, and tens of thousands of people from Myanmar sought shelter in the small Indian state, including the ousted state and federal lawmakers. The rebels there share close ethnic ties with the locals of Mizoram. The Mizos have ties with Myanmar’s Chin community, and that has led to an influx. When the current round of violence broke out, over five thousand people from Myanmar fled to India. They came to Mizoram and took refuge in two local villages. These people are now asking for asylum. And this is a concern for India. If the violence escalates, more people could flee, and India would be forced to deal with a refugee crisis. The rebels have the momentum right now. It looks like they won’t stop anytime soon. New Delhi is monitoring the situation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.