Vantage | Why Islamic State eyeing Pakistan isn't surprising yet worrisome

Pakistan has a new guest—a dangerous but hardly surprising one. It is the Islamic State. Islamabad alone is a major threat to regional peace, and the Islamic State needs no introduction, but now they are together. Pakistan’s Interior Ministry has released a new assessment. It talks about terror groups in the country; the big focus was on the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP is a known threat to Pakistan. TTP has launched dozens of attacks in the last few years, but the Islamic State warning is worrying. Pakistan says it is trying to establish a foothold in the country. Shia Muslims and other minorities are its target. We have already seen examples of this. In July last year, a political rally in Pakistan was bombed, and around 54 people were killed. Later on, the Islamic State claimed responsibility. So why isn’t the Pakistani army cracking down? For starters, it is busy elsewhere, like jailing opposition leaders, bringing back exiled politicians, and rigging elections. Basically, everything except fighting terrorism. So it’s a free run for these groups. In 2023, these groups carried out dozens of attacks, and put together, around 1,000 people were killed—500 civilians plus 500 officials. It is the highest casualty in almost six years. So clearly, there is a problem. The Islamic State in Pakistan is different from ISIS that operated in Iraq and Syria—this one is called Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP). Khorasan doesn’t exist today, it is a historical region that once spanned Iran and Afghanistan, but the terror organisation is named after it. The ISKP was formed between 2014 and 2015. The members were drawn from two main groups—the Afghan Taliban and the TTP. Both of these groups had national ambitions; while the Afghan Taliban wanted to rule over Kabul, the TTP wanted to rule over Islamabad. But some of them said—think bigger—think of a regional or international Caliphate. So they broke away and formed ISKP. Its peak was in 2016. Back then the ISKP had some 3,000 fighters. The ISKP did have links to the Islamic State in West Asia, but operationally, it was separate. So why is it targeting Pakistan? Number one, Afghanistan is becoming a no-go zone. The Islamic State and the Taliban are rivals. The Taliban are actually hunting the ISKP fighters. And no, it’s not because they have changed but because they have no option. If Afghanistan becomes a terror launchpad, foreign forces could return, the Taliban may be toppled again. So it is all about self-preservation. As a result, the ISKP fighters are pouring into Pakistan, and they’re coming with weapons. The US abandoned a lot of hardware when they left Kabul—things like guns, ammunition and night vision goggles—the UN says ISKP is using those same weapons. Reason number two: Pakistan’s reluctance to hit back. Since 2022, terror attacks have increased 93 percent in border regions. Soldiers are regularly targeted like last month, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a suicide bombing killed 23 soldiers. Yet, the army is almost hesitant to hit back.

The army has chosen other tactics like fencing the Afghan border and deporting millions of Afghans back to their home. The question is why? Why not fight fire with fire? Perhaps it is because of Pakistan’s long-standing policy. According to the Pakistani army, there is good and bad terrorism. If they crack down on TTP, it helps the ISKP and if they crack down on the ISKP, it helps the TTP, because these groups are rivals. Pakistan is caught in its own trap. They spent years choosing which terrorists to support. Now, it is all coming back to haunt them. But how should the world see it? Well, the West is caught in a bind. They don’t care about the TTP, as far as Washington knows, the TTP only has ambitions inside Pakistan. But the Islamic State is a different ballgame. It has global ambitions that target the West. So the rise of the ISKP will worry them. Same for the neighbourhood; in 2022, the ISKP claimed two attacks in India; they were bomb blasts in Coimbatore and Mangaluru. Last year, an ISKP module was busted in Gujarat. Five Indians tried to join the group in Afghanistan, so the threat is real, and why just India? Other neighbours have also felt the heat, like the 2019 Easter bombing in Sri Lanka. Or the 2016 Dhaka attack. Both were claimed by the Islamic State. So it is a problem that affects the entire region. With the right intentions, Pakistan can end this threat, but the right intentions are not its strong suit. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.