Vantage | Why Hezbollah’s role could make this war even bigger

Right now, Israel is battling Hamas in the south and that’s the only front. But to the north, a new one is appearing - the Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli soldiers and tanks are heading to the Lebanon border, the security is being beefed up. There is also talk of evacuations. The Israeli defence ministry wants settlements near Lebanon to be ready for a conflict. This follows Hezbollah’s decision to join the war, not formally, but tacitly.

On Sunday, they fired rockets into three Israeli positions. There were no casualties, but Israel responded in kind. They struck Hezbollah positions and killed three fighters. So now, it’s a cycle of attacks. On Monday too Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel. Hence the preparations. Israel has suffered one sneak attack already. They don’t want to suffer another one. Who are they? But who exactly are the Hezbollah? In simple words, another Iranian proxy. A very powerful one in Lebanon. It was formed back in 1982 with one objective - to fight against Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. And how many fighters do they have? Some 100,000. They fought a war against Israel in 2006. Hezbollah lost more than 1,000 fighters. Israel lost around 120 people. They pounded Hezbollah military assets and infrastructure. Many parts of southern Lebanon were uninhabitable. But Israel couldn’t eliminate Hezbollah. Today, they play an important role in Lebanese politics. They also coordinate with Iran and Palestinian groups. Even this attack, reports say, the planning was done in Lebanon’s capital. Like Iran, the Hezbollah have denied this. But their leaders can’t seem to contain their joy. Hezbollah senior official, Hashem Safieddine said: “We salute all our beloved Palestinian resistance factions in Palestine no matter to whom they belong, and they are all united in the resistance. We tell those that the nation is with you, our heart, minds, souls, our history and guns and rockets, and all that we have, is with you”. Why the fear So far, Hezbollah’s role has been limited. They have refrained from striking deep inside Israel, but the fear is that could change. There is talk of Israel invading Gaza. If that happens, the Hezbollah could join. Plus, there are many Palestinian groups inside Lebanon who are putting pressure on Hezbollah. They want the group to release the pressure on Hamas by opening a second front. Israel and its allies are aware of this threat. US officials have warned Hezbollah against entering the war. They have also deployed warships and fighter jets, but with these people, you never know. The Hezbollah has vast experience dealing with Israel. They also had some relative success. In the year 2000, Israel withdrew from parts of southern Lebanon and Hezbollah capitalised on that. They claimed to be the only Arab army to beat Israel, to make them give up territory. So, this is how the Hezbollah works, it’s a lot of risk and bluster. In fact, they are threatening U.S. military assets in West Asia. The U.S. has around 30,000 soldiers in the region as well as many warships and bases. The Hezbollah says, if the U.S. enters the war, these assets will be attacked. But why isn’t Lebanon’s government controlling them? Their economy is in dire straits, they need all the help they can get, so why antagonise the Americans? Because the government doesn’t control the Hezbollah. It’s almost the other way around - most of Hezbollah’s decisions are taken in Iran. So, the assumption is Tehran is coordinating all of this. What happens next? The sneak attack by Hamas, the rocket fire by Hezbollah - all of it is being orchestrated by Iran. So, the question is, do they want an escalation? Israel certainly is not waiting to find out. They have sent more soldiers and tanks to the northern border. Early yesterday, there were reports of a possible aerial infiltration from Syria and Lebanon, an attack from the skies. Israel ended up scrambling its forces, but turned out it was a false alarm. It’s a neat strategy for Iran and Hezbollah: keep Israeli assets tied down in the north. But it’s also a risky one because if Hezbollah and Israel go to war, it won’t be a local one. Iran could end up being involved. And if Iran is involved - the U.S. will intervene. You could have a much bigger conflict in West Asia. You can forget oil prices and supply chains. A lot depends on the next few days, if Israel enters Gaza, Hezbollah could consider it an excuse, a justification for war and in the blink of an eye things could escalate. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.