Vantage | Why Evergrande is a cautionary tale for those investing in China

In a significant development unfolding in China, the country’s property crisis has reached a critical juncture with one of its major developers, Evergrande, facing liquidation. The company, once a real estate giant, defaulted in 2021, accumulating a staggering debt of around $300 billion. After months of legal battles, the Hong Kong court, which had shown patience through multiple extensions, has finally ordered Evergrande’s liquidation, marking a pivotal moment in the country’s economic landscape.

Liquidation order and implications The recent court order mandates Evergrande’s liquidation, implying that the company will be broken up and sold in parts. The directors will lose control and a court-appointed official, known as a liquidator, will take over the management. This process, expected to span several months or even years, poses potential challenges for creditors and investors alike. Senior economist Gary Ng from Natixis highlighted the likelihood of Evergrande being broken down into smaller entities. While the macroeconomic impact may not be catastrophic, the corporate level could face considerable challenges. The court’s decision led to a sharp decline in Evergrande’s stock, losing 20 per cent of its value, eventually leading to a suspension of trading. “So, it’s quite likely that Evergrande will be broken down into much smaller companies if it still survives in the future. So, maybe it’s not the end of the world for the macro economy, but I still think on the corporate level it can be quite painful,” said Gary. Jurisdiction challenges The legal complexities surrounding Evergrande’s case are further compounded by jurisdiction issues between Hong Kong and mainland China. The applicability of the court order to mainland China remains unclear, as the legal systems differ, and enforcement varies. Evergrande’s executive director, Shawn Siu, emphasized the separation of the company’s business in Hong Kong from the mainland, suggesting a limited impact on the latter. Plight of creditors and homebuyers With a vast majority of Evergrande’s $300 billion debt owed to creditors in China, the court’s decision has left them in uncertainty. Homebuyers, numbering 1.5 million in September 2021, are still awaiting their homes, facing the risk of financial loss and a prolonged wait. The broader context reveals a growing crisis in China’s property sector, with over 50 developers facing financial troubles in the past three years. Looking ahead, more challenges loom for China’s property developers, as deadlines approach for the repayment of approximately $100 billion in 2024 alone. The ongoing trend of missed payments and debt defaults among developers raises concerns about the stability of the country’s real estate market. Investor dilemma and government response Investors are now grappling with uncertainty, as Evergrande’s case serves as a cautionary tale. With no clear assurance of government rescue, investors may opt to exercise caution, withdrawing their investments and distancing themselves from the perceived instability in China’s economy. “After the company was able to sort its finances itself for about a year and a half, a court has now decided its liquidation and that obviously rings alarm bells with capital markets around the world. In theory, the impact could be huge because the company’s debt load is very, very large and because it has a worldwide network,” said trader at Steubing Ag Security Bank, Tim Oechsner. Evergrande’s liquidation is a pivotal moment in China’s property crisis, signalling potential challenges for creditors, investors, and the broader real estate market. The intricate legal landscape, coupled with economic uncertainties, underscores the need for a cautious approach. As China navigates through this crisis, the implications are far-reaching, impacting not only the immediate stakeholders but also contributing to a broader conversation about the stability of the country’s economic foundations. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.