Vantage | Why escalation of Iran-Pak aggression will be bad news for India too

In an alarming turn of events recently, Iran launched a missile strike into Pakistan, triggering a swift and forceful retaliation less than 48 hours later. The tit-for-tat exchange of attacks between the two nuclear powers has raised concerns globally as the potential for escalation looms.

Iran’s missile strike into Pakistan targeted a village near the Iranian city of Saravan, situated in the Sistan-Baluchestan province, less than 100 kilometres from the border. The operation, named “Marg Bar Sarmachar” (Death to Guerilla Fighters), was met with a robust response from Pakistan involving a variety of weapons including killer drones, rockets, loitering munitions and stand-off weapons. Motives behind the attacks Pakistan claims it was targeting Baloch militants associated with the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a group striving for an independent Balochistan, separate from Pakistan. Islamabad argues that credible intelligence suggested the BLA was planning a significant action. However, it is crucial to note that this retaliation was, undeniably, a response to Iran’s initial strike. De-escalation efforts In the aftermath of the attacks, both nations are now expressing a desire for de-escalation. “Acts like the one which took place a couple of nights ago create difficulties and give the adversaries of our friendship the pretext to create more difficulties in the region. We will continue to engage with our neighbour Iran to ensure that peace prevails and there is and that the two countries make concerted and coordinated efforts to combat the threat of terrorism,” said Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan spokesperson. However, the situation remains precarious, with both countries on high alert. International reactions The global community has responded with concern, with the United States condemning Iran’s initial airstrike. “So we do condemn those strikes. We’ve seen Iran violate the sovereign borders of three of its neighbours in just the past couple of days. And I will say that the difference is the context very much matters,” said Matthew Miller, State Department spokesman. China, a key partner to both Iran and Pakistan, has offered to mediate and called for calm and restraint. “The Chinese side sincerely hopes that the two sides can exercise calm and restraint and avoid an escalation of tension. We are also willing to play a constructive role in de-escalating the situation if both sides need it,” said Mao Ning, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson. India, a supporter of Iran, has adopted a cautious stance, emphasizing self-defence actions by nations. Uncertainties and potential dangers Despite the talk of de-escalation, uncertainties persist. The motives behind Iran’s attack on Pakistan remain unclear and the risk of further escalation is not eliminated. The possibility of pushing Iran over the edge with potential involvement from the US and Israel adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation. Analysing the military capabilities of both nations reveals a substantial arsenal on each side. While Pakistan holds an edge in terms of tanks and aircraft, Iran boasts a stronger economy. Additionally, the presence of nuclear weapons in Pakistan introduces a new dimension to the conflict making a prolonged aggression scenario highly undesirable. A prolonged conflict between Iran and Pakistan could have severe global repercussions. The risk of countries taking sides, the impact on regional stability and the potential for non-state actors to exploit the situation all underscore the urgency for de-escalation. The Iran-Pakistan escalation is a dangerous game with global consequences. The need for immediate de-escalation is evident as the world watches with concern. The complexities involved demand a diplomatic resolution to prevent further deterioration and the potentially catastrophic effects of a prolonged conflict between two nuclear powers. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.