Vantage | Which way will the war turn? A lot depends on Israel’s ground invasion

After 20 days of the Israel-Hamas war, the wait continues for a ground invasion. There is a reason we keep coming back to it: to the ground invasion, because the stakes could not be higher for Gaza; a ground invasion would be deadly, possibly resulting in thousands of more deaths; and for Israel, it would be a political gamble. An invasion could plunge them into a wider war; it may even reverse the Arab-Israeli peace process. So a lot hinges on this invasion—when it happens, how it happens, and how long it lasts. The delay itself is a telling story; it means Israel is concerned about something, and we don’t know what. It could be the political fallout, or it could also be a military issue. Whatever the reason, there has been a delay, but the question is: Could the delay lead to an eventual cancellation? Could Israel decide not to invade? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu still seems keen; he said the IDF is preparing for the ground operation, but as for the timing, he didn’t say much. “We have already killed thousands of terrorists and this is only the beginning. simultaneously, we are preparing for a ground invasion. I will not elaborate on when, how or how many. I will also not elaborate on the various calculations we are making, which the public is mostly unaware of and that is how things should be," said the Israeli Prime Minister. “I want to be clear, the timing of the military’s operation, the timing is determined by consensus by the war cabinet. Together with the chief of staff and the cabinet we are working to ensure the ideal conditions for our troops for the next operations,” he added.

So the plan is still on. Israel is just waiting for the right time. Can anyone force Netanyahu to reconsider? Well, attempts were made at the United Nations Security Council, and two rival proposals were on the table. The first was from the United States; it called for a humanitarian pause in the fighting, and don’t mistake this for a ceasefire; a pause and a ceasefire are technically different. Either way, it was shot down, and both China and Russia voted against it. “What we oppose is that the draft text attempt to establish a new narrative on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, ignoring the fact that the Palestinian territories have been occupied for a long time and avoiding evading the fundamental issue of independence, statehood for the Palestinian people," said Zhang Jun, Chinese Ambassador to the UN. Then it was Russia’s turn, their resolution had three points: A ceasefire, a condemnation of the Hamas attack, and a condemnation of Israel’s attack on civilians. This resolution was also defeated. “Colleagues, the United States could not support yet another Russian resolution that was put forward with no consultation that failed to reflect the realities on the ground. It is disappointing that Russia would rather try and score political points and further divide this council than address the current, urgent needs of Israelis and Palestinians,” said Robert A Wood, alternate representative of the US for special political affairs in the UN. That’s the UN security council for you, divided, politically motivated, and frankly, useless. So no hope there, meanwhile, the situation on the ground continues to get worse. For days, Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire, some border towns have been evacuated, and Syria has also been struck, so the possibility of a two-front war is increasingly real. But the assessment from Moscow is even worse, President Vladimir Putin has spoken about the war, he says it could go beyond West Asia. Now, that’s a worrying prospect, it looks highly unlikely right now, but even the possibility should ring alarm bells. Now, going forward, Israel will face one major challenge, and that’s global support. Most countries rallied behind Israel after the attack on 7 October, but now, it’s pretty lukewarm. “If it is a massive ground invasion which puts civilian lives at risk , then I think that it is a mistake, and it is a mistake for Israel as well. Because it doesn’t protect Israel in the long-term,” said Emmanuel Macron, the French president. “The problem here is the following: It’s not a war, it’s a genocide that has killed almost 2,000 children that have nothing to do with war, they are victims of this war,” said Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. “A legitimate goal could be to ensure Israel’s security, could be dismantling the military capacity of hamas, but what Israel is doing is not that. What Israel is doing is punishing an entire Palestinian population or what Hamas has done,” said Francesca Albanese, special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967. So support is dwindling, and among Muslim nations, opposition is hardening, like in Turkiye, President Erdogan was keen on playing peace-maker, reports say, he asked Hamas leaders to leave his country, he also asked Palestinians to stop harassing Israeli civilians. But not anymore, Erdogan’s latest comments show a u-turn. He says, Hamas is not a terrorist group, if he stopped there, he could have salvaged the situation, but Erdogan didn’t, he also said, Hamas is a liberation group. “Hamas is not a terrorist organisation but a liberation group, a group of Mujahadeen that is fighting to protect its soil and its citizens,” said Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan. “Dear brothers, we had good intentions but Israel took advantage of our good intentions. We had a plan to go to Israel, but it’s cancelled. we did not go,” said Erdogan. So, Erdogan had plans to visit Israel, but now, those plans have been dropped. It is a classic Erdogan play, when the global sentiment was with Israel, he talked about peace, when the sentiment shifted, he dumped Israel. He started praising Hamas instead. But the problem is: It is not just Turkiye. Most Muslim nations have ganged up on Israel, we are talking about major regional players here, some of them are Israel’s neighbours, so why is Netanyahu burning bridges with them? Because right now, only one country’s support matters for Israel, and that’s America. The US can give Israel weapons. The US can give them political and diplomatic cover, Washington can also pressure them to stop fighting, it has always been like that, just think back to all Israel-Palestine wars in this century. Israel goes on a rampage, the US tolerates it for a while but eventually they say: That’s enough, time for a ceasefire, and so far President Joe Biden has not reached that point. “Israel has the right, and I would add, a responsibility to respond to the slaughter of their people. and we will ensure Israel has what it needs to defend itself against these terrorists. That’s a guarantee,” said US president Joe Biden. “There’s no going back to the status quo as it stood on 6 October. That means ensuring Hamas can no longer terrorise Israel and use Palestinian civilians as human shields. It also means that when this crisis is over, there has to be a vision of what comes next,” he said. There was more evidence of that support. For three weeks, the US has been trying to elect a new speaker. Three lawmakers tried, but all three were rejected, but on Wednesday, it was a fourth time lucky, and the Republicans elected Mike Johnson to be speaker. Guess what his first move was? To pass a resolution supporting Israel. Imagine that there are three weeks of deadlock and dozens of domestic issues pending. What does the new speaker do? He passes a resolution for Israel and tells you how deep and bipartisan this relationship is—maybe not all the time, but at times of war, it is definitely there. And that is the biggest assurance for Israel; it’s their cue to go after Hamas. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.