Vantage | What's next in Israel-Hamas war, a pause, ceasefire or invasion?

As the Israel-Hamas conflict entered its 19th day, the world watches with bated breath as the situation unfolds in two distinct theatres: New York and Gaza.

The United Nations Security Council In New York, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has been a hub for political battleground. On Tuesday, the UNSC held an open debate on the ongoing war. The first speaker was Antonio Guterres, the UN Chief, who pointed out a crucial perspective. He mentioned that the recent Hamas attacks on Israel did not happen in isolation. Guterres underlined that the Palestinian people have endured 56 years of oppressive occupation, seen their land consumed by settlements, witnessed ongoing violence, stifled economic growth and the displacement of their people including the demolition of their homes. “It is important to also recognise the attacks by Hamas did not happen in a vacuum. The Palestinian people have been subjected to 56 years of suffocating occupation. They have seen their land steadily devoured by settlements and plagued by violence; their economy stifled; their people displaced and their homes demolished," said UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres. This perspective led to a divisive response from Israel. Guterres essentially attributed some blame to Israel for the Hamas attacks, which took place in a surprising turn of events within the UNSC. In response, Israel called for Guterres’ resignation accusing him of tolerating terrorism. “The UN is failing. And you, Mr Secretary-General, have lost all morality and impartiality, because when you say those terrible words, that these heinous attacks did not happen in a vacuum, you are tolerating terrorism. And I think that the Secretary General must resign because from now on, every day that he’s here in this building, unless he apologises immediately, today we called him to apologise, there is no justification to the existence of this building,” said Israel’s UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan. In an attempt to clarify his stance, Guterres later stated that he was not defending the Hamas attack but rather addressing Palestinian grievances. However, whether Israel accepts this clarification remains to be seen. International voices speak up Following Guterres, various members of the UNSC expressed their perspectives on the conflict. The United States, represented by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, reiterated that all acts of terror are unjustifiable irrespective of the location. Blinken even issued a warning to Iran, vowing swift and decisive action if US assets were targetted. However, he did not call for an immediate ceasefire. On the other hand, Muslim-majority countries rallied behind Palestine, echoing the call for a ceasefire and criticising Israel for its actions. Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all demanded an end to military operations and compliance with UN laws and resolutions. “Iran aligned with the international community in endorsing the call for an immediate ceasefire and this cessation of Israeli relentless military aggression,” said Iran’s UN ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani. Jordan foreign minister Ayman Safadi said, “It seems that Israel is above the law. It is violating international law without any deterrent. It is running roughshod over Security Council resolutions.” The Saudi Arabia foreign minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan Al Saud said, “The international community must take a firm stance to end military operations. Double standards and selectivity abiding by UN laws and resolutions, this policy has dangerous repercussions that go beyond this crisis.” Speaking on the same the Turkish deputy foreign minister for Middle East and North Africa affairs Ahmet Yildiz said, “Some prefer to look the other way. In the face of such atrocities, they prefer not to speak about crimes against humanity and war crimes. They are prepared to pretend as if Palestinian people are just numbers and they have no souls and rights.” The ceasefire debate The international community seems divided on the issue of a ceasefire. The United States is advocating for a pause in fighting, not a full ceasefire, to allow aid and resources to enter Gaza. Russia, conversely, is pushing for a complete ceasefire insisting that Israel must halt its military operations. With both countries holding veto power in the UNSC, the situation remains delicate, leaving Gaza in a precarious position. A UN Security Council resolution carries significant weight, exerting pressure on Israel to end the conflict. Without such a resolution, Israel may continue to prepare for a ground invasion, as the US maintains its stance against an immediate ceasefire. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, “What we want, as I said from the beginning, we want to see all measure of protection for civilians and in pauses in an operation is a tool and a tactic that can do that for temporary periods of time. That’s not the same as saying a cease fire. Again, right now, we believe a cease fire benefits Hamas, a general ceasefire.” Humanitarian crisis in Gaza Meanwhile, the situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate. In the past 24 hours alone, approximately 700 Gazans lost their lives, pushing the overall death toll to around 6,500, with an alarming 50 per cent of the fatalities being children. The fear is that a ground invasion could further escalate these distressing figures. Gaza now resembles a landscape of destruction with rubble, twisted metal and dust. The civilian population faces a daily wait for the next Israeli airstrike with each attack unfolding their worst nightmares. The dire humanitarian situation is compounded by the state of Gaza’s healthcare system. Out of 35 hospitals, 12 are closed and 46 out of 72 healthcare centres are non-operational. The lack of medicines, food and dwindling power supply has pushed hospitals to the brink of collapse. The scarcity of fuel due to Israeli restrictions is threatening power supply, which may result in dire consequences for patients, including 2,000 cancer patients and 130 premature babies in incubators. A viral video shot at an Indonesian hospital in Gaza reveals the grim reality – ambulances arriving in complete darkness with doctors using mobile phones to light the way. A pending ground invasion As rumours of a potential ground invasion persist, Israel’s Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi confirmed that the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) are prepared for such an operation. However, multiple factors are influencing the decision-making process. First, the fate of more than 200 hostages, some of them dual nationals, still held by Hamas, is uncertain. Western countries, including the US, are urging Israel to delay its operation to secure their release. Second, the endgame remains unclear. Eradicating Hamas from Gaza is one thing, but deciding what comes afterward is another challenge. The absence of a clear post-conflict plan could have consequences similar to what was seen in Afghanistan. Third, the human cost of an invasion is a significant concern. Sending thousands of soldiers into the chaotic and densely populated Gaza Strip comes with high risks of casualties. Fourth, there’s the fear of a wider war. Hezbollah has already threatened to join the conflict, which could lead to Israel fighting on two fronts. These factors have left Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a difficult position. The world watches as he weighs the options, mindful of the potential political and humanitarian consequences of his decisions. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.