Vantage | What's behind Nawaz Sharif's 'don't blame India'?

There is a slow-burner unfolding in Pakistan — a strange election with an even stranger strategy — politicians are having a sudden change of heart towards India. It is like the ninth wonder. Most Pakistani politicians are two-trick ponies — listen to the army and blame India. That is all they do. But former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is trying a different strategy. He says not to blame India; Pakistan’s troubles are its own creation.

He is right. One cannot blame India for Pakistan’s current situation. But what explains Sharif’s honesty? Is he extending an olive branch to India? He can’t just yet. Pakistan’s elections are due in February. Candidates have started filing nomination papers. Sharif himself is expected to file his nomination on Thursday. He will likely contest from Mansehra, a city in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, which is also a Sharif stronghold.

But here’s the fun fact. Technically, Sharif cannot contest the elections. He was given a lifelong ban by the Supreme Court. That ban is yet to be reversed. Though some of his jail sentences were overturned, the ban remains. So how will Nawaz Sharif contest? Such technicalities don’t seem to bother Pakistan’s political parties. For example, look at Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf party. The PTI says Khan will contest from three seats — Lahore, Islamabad and Mianwali — but Khan is currently in jail. He too has a lifelong ban on contesting elections. But his party is filing papers from three seats. This tells you the state of Pakistani politics. But let’s assume Sharif contests, and he wins and becomes the prime minister. Will he keep saying good things about India? Well, that depends on the army. Has Pakistan’s army told Nawaz Sharif to change his tone? To sweet talk india? If it has, it could signal a policy change. A possible outreach to India and frankly, it’s a possibility. Sharif hasn’t suddenly started sweet-talking India. It has been a trend, he started while in exile in London. He continued at his first rally after returning, and since then, he has been unstoppable. If the army disagreed it would and could have stopped him. But it haven’t. Well, Pakistan is chasing resets around the world. This week, the army chief was in the United States. He met top US officials like Lloyd Austin and Antony Blinken. And on Wednesday, the army released a statement: “The army chief said that Pakistan wishes to develop itself as a hub of connectivity and a gateway to Central Asia and beyond. However, it wants to eschew bloc politics and believes in maintaining balanced relationships with all friendly countries.” Just a reminder Pakistan is saddled with Chinese loans. It’s often been called a Chinese province. Now, that same Pakistan wants to avoid bloc politics. In other words, it wants to repair relations with the West. Pakistan needs bail-outs from global institutions where the US can help. Hence the reset. But does that reset also extend to India? Logically, it should. India is the new engine of global growth, the fifth largest economy, so India’s prosperity will rub off on neighbours, especially those who want to be a ‘regional transit hub’. Imagine the benefits for Islamabad. But the question is, are they genuine? Sharif has tried to repair relations before, during his prime ministership. A bus route was opened from Delhi to Lahore in 1999. In 2014, he attended PM Modi’s inauguration. The next year, Modi returned the favour when he attended Sharif’s granddaughter’s wedding. So the two leaders are familiar. But every time, the military has spoiled Sharif’s plans. In 1999, it launched the Kargil war. In 2017, he was convicted in a corruption case. So will this time be any different? Only if the army supports him. Of course, India’s red lines are clear: Terror and talks do not go hand-in-hand. If progress is made on that front, maybe a reset is on the cards. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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