Vantage | What rebels' takeover of key towns means for Indian projects in Myanmar

From a future opportunity to a present danger, Myanmar. The coup-hit neighbour of India is now in the grip of violence. The military junta is in trouble. It is losing ground, as is the faith of its neighbours. First, it was China that cut its losses, and now it is India that’s being forced to take some tough calls. An Indian project in Myanmar has come to a grinding halt. It is the Kaladan project, a major undertaking aimed at improving India’s connectivity with Southeast Asia. It was supposed to connect India’s Kolkata port with Myanmar’s Sittwe port. This is in the Rakhine state of Myanmar. But in recent days, progress has stalled.

Reports say rebels in Myanmar have captured a town called Paletwa. This is a border town near the Indian state of Mizoram. The Kaladan project runs through Paletwa. According to one lawmaker in Myanmar, this project is now “almost dead”. The army has lost control. The rebels are in charge of all major towns and supply routes. They are said to be gaining ground in Rakhine. It is only a matter of time before they establish control over the entire state. They have surrounded the port of Sittwe and attacked Myanmar’s navy there. The Kaladan project was supposed to connect to the Sittwe port. Clearly, it’s in trouble, and India has been watching these developments closely. This week, New Delhi issued an advisory saying that the situation in Rakhine is deteriorating. Indians in the state should leave, and those who plan to go there should not. On Thursday, another announcement was made: India scrapped the free movement regime. The free movement of people between India and Myanmar. It was signed in 2018 for the benefit of families living on both sides of the border. It allowed cross-border movement up to 16 kilometres in either country without a visa. If you lived in Myanmar, you could get a one-year border pass, cross over to India, and stay here for two weeks at a stretch. The free-movement regime also improved access to education and healthcare. Plus, it encouraged cross-border trade, but given the volatility in Myanmar, India is scrapping it. India also plans to fence the entire border. It is 1,600 kilometres long. New Delhi wants to fence it. What does this mean for Myanmar? People who want to come to India will have to get a visa. No exceptions. Those who try to cross over without a visa will be treated as illegal immigrants. This was needed, as a lot of people have been pouring into the Indian side. Since last year, India has sent back over 200 soldiers from Myanmar who were attacked by the rebels, and they have come to India for refuge. It’s an influx that New Delhi does not want. Myanmar is unravelling. It poses a security threat. Not just to India but also to Bangladesh. Recently, rebels seized an outpost on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. When they struck, Myanmar’s border guard force was on duty. They couldn’t withstand the rebels. There were around 60 border guards, and all of them fled. They were seen running towards the Bangladesh border. Did the guards cross into Bangladesh? It’s not clear. But Bangladesh, too, has heightened security. Bangladesh and Myanmar share a small border of just around 270 kilometres. But just like New Delhi, Dhaka too is worried. The fighting in Myanmar is now spilling over in all directions. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .