Vantage | What Putin's rare trip abroad to UAE, Saudi is all about

In an unexpected diplomatic move, Russian President Vladimir Putin is embarking on a rare foreign trip amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. His destination includes two key players in the Middle East – Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This trip holds significant importance, as Putin aims to strengthen ties with these nations, both of which are crucial allies of the United States. The primary agenda revolves around oil, as all three countries are part of the OPEC Plus group and recent decisions to cut oil output signal a collective effort to stabilise prices in a challenging global economic climate.

OPEC Plus connection Putin’s journey to Saudi Arabia and the UAE underscores a broader shift in his diplomatic efforts. While he has predominantly visited former Soviet states since the Ukraine conflict began, this trip signals a willingness to engage with key allies of the United States. The common denominator for Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is their membership in the OPEC Plus group, a coalition of oil-producing nations. The recent decision by these countries to voluntarily cut oil output by approximately 2.2 million barrels per day reflects their shared interest in propping up oil prices. The backdrop of the oil market sets the stage for Putin’s diplomatic venture. The OPEC Plus nations aim to reverse the downward trend in oil prices that has persisted in recent months. Despite the announced cuts, the markets remain sceptical, as global economic uncertainties and a sluggish demand for oil persist. Putin’s visit to the Gulf is driven by the need to formulate a strategy that ensures a steady flow of oil revenue into Russia’s treasury as oil and fas make 28 per cent of Russia’s revenue. During his visit to Saudi Arabia, Putin is scheduled to hold talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). The relationship between Putin and MBS dates back to 2016 when they played pivotal roles in the formation of OPEC Plus. With economic projections indicating a challenging 2024 for oil-dependent states, the leaders will likely seek ways to mitigate the impact on their respective economies. Oil revenues constitute a significant portion of Russia’s and Saudi Arabia’s income, making these talks crucial for navigating the challenging economic landscape. “These discussions are held within the OPEC+ format, but of course, cooperation in this area is always on the agenda. The fact is that there are certain processes of inertia in the oil market; it is very big and heavy. Therefore, sometimes the effect is delayed. Therefore, coordination will continue,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Beyond oil: Geopolitical considerations Putin’s visit to the Gulf comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. With Israel resuming its offensive on Gaza and growing dissatisfaction with the US among Arab nations, Putin sees an opportunity to enhance Russia’s influence in the region. By engaging with Gulf states, he aims to position Russia as a neutral or alternative partner, potentially nudging these nations away from their traditional alliance with the US. The diplomatic engagement goes beyond discussions on oil, extending to economic and political considerations. Russians are increasingly turning to the UAE as a safe haven, redirecting investments from Western countries. The Gulf, particularly Dubai, has become a new hub for Russian oligarchs and companies seeking refuge from Western sanctions. The reciprocal nature of this relationship is evident, as the Gulf states actively welcome wealthy Russian visitors to boost their economies in preparation for a post-oil future. As Putin embarks on this diplomatic journey, the meetings with Saudi Arabia and the UAE could provide valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of Russia’s relationships in the Middle East. While the primary focus is on oil-related strategies, the broader implications of this alliance of convenience raise questions about its long-term sustainability and potential impact on the geopolitical landscape. Today’s meetings hold the key to understanding whether this diplomatic move will translate into a strategic realignment in the Middle East. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.