Vantage | What Pakistan's bits-and-pieces govt will mean for its army and people

Elections are over; it is now coalition time in Pakistan. Last week, the army’s script nearly went wrong. So it is writing a new one, and this script has just one objective: To keep Imran Khan out of power. There are a lot of negotiations happening. First, Nawaz Sharif hosted the Muttahida Qaumi Movement. It’s a political party based in Karachi, and then came the big meeting. Former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met the Bhuttos. He was welcomed in Lahore by Bilawal Bhutto Zaradi. They hugged, exchanged pleasantries, and then got down to business. It looks like a coalition is being worked out—the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML(N)) together. Both sides agreed to cooperate. They also resolved to save Pakistan from political instability—that might mean a coalition. But will the numbers work out? In the final results, candidates backed by Imran Khan led the way. They won 101 seats, Nawaz Sharif’s PML(N) got 75 seats, and Bhutto’s PPP got 54 seats. At number four, we have the MQM-P with 17 seats. Now, Pakistan’s National Assembly has 266 members, so the majority mark is 134. PML(N) and PPP have 129 seats together—just five seats short of the majority. Where will those seats come from? There are many options right now. Maybe the MQM can join in, or maybe some independents can be poached. Six independents have already joined Sharif’s party. Many more could be on the way. So it looks like Pakistan’s new government will be a coalition, including the PPP and PML(N)—the Sharifs and the Bhutto-Zardaris.

In the same equation as before, both parties together toppled Imran Khan in 2022. Now, they could be back together. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) reacted to this with anger. On Thursday night, they were winning the election, but three days later, they could be in opposition. So Imran Khan’s supporters are angry. They held protests across major Pakistani cities. Even key highways were blocked. However, more coalition talks continued; even if an alliance is struck, the final details will have to be worked out, like the key cabinet posts, prime ministership, policy direction, and comfortable conversation. Bilawal Bhutto had rejected the idea before the elections; he said he wouldn’t be a foreign minister under Sharif. But now, he’s got leverage. Reports say Asif Ali Zardari wants to be president again. Bilawal himself has prime ministerial ambitions, so the coalition talks will be interesting, but they won’t be the only challenge. Two problems will follow: Number one, a looming judicial standoff: Pakistani courts are flooded with election cases, and many PTI candidates have filed complaints. They say they are the rightful winners. “I have gotten around 54,000 votes, and my nearest rival got only 17,000 votes. We will continue this protest and also go to court. We have faith in the judiciary. We hope that they will declare those candidates victorious, as they have been voted for by the people. This is our demand,” said Dawa Khan, a PTI candidate. It will take time to settle this; a lot will depend on Imran Khan. Will he keep the street protests going? Or will he hit pause? That decision will determine Pakistan’s near future. Number two, the economic path ahead: Pakistan’s current crisis needs a strong government, possibly a single-party regime, that would have made bailout talks a lot easier. Also, radical policies often require a clear majority, but that’s out of the window. We are now looking at bits and pieces of government—a lot of bickering, a lot of uncertainty, and a lot of indecision. Even Pakistan’s stock market has realised that. On Friday, it lost 1,200 points. On Monday, again, it plunged by 1,800 points. So the markets have understood the big picture. It is going to be a troubled period for Pakistan. The first priority will be cobbling up a government; then comes the economic recovery. Think again: 50 years later, how will we look at this election? The vote itself was a blow to the army. It showed how unpopular the Generals were, but don’t expect their role to change. If anything, they could meddle more. Both the Sharifs and Bhuttos have been rejected by the people. Nawaz Sharif actually lost one of his two seats. So chances are, the new government will be deeply unpopular. It will struggle for legitimacy, and such unstable Pakistani regimes often depend on the army for stability, direction, and control. So the Generals are not going anywhere; their grip on the country may have slipped a bit, but they have reminded the world of Pakistan’s eternal truth: Never bet against the army. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.