Vantage | What Iran president's Saudi trip will say about America's waning clout

In the ever-evolving landscape of West Asia, diplomatic relations and alliances can shift like quicksand. Wars have the power to bring sworn enemies into the same room and pit friends against each other. A remarkable development in this region is the upcoming visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Riyadh. This historic visit represents a significant shift in regional dynamics and has the potential to reshape alliances in West Asia. A rivalry defined At the heart of this development lies the age-old rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. These two nations represent the Shiite and Sunni branches of Islam, respectively, making them significant players in the region’s geopolitical landscape. Their relationship took a severe hit in 2016 when diplomatic ties were severed after the attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran. China’s mediation and the road to normalisation However, the year 2023 brings a notable shift. China has played a pivotal role in brokering a deal between the two regional giants and they have agreed to normalise relations. This visit by President Raisi can be seen as the culmination of this diplomatic effort. Although the timing may not be ideal, with ongoing conflicts in West Asia, it’s an opportune moment for both nations to find common ground. The recent conversation between Raisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman focussed on ending attacks on Palestinians and voiced concerns about the US’s support for Israel. What’s in it for both sides Iran’s strategy: Iran had a vested interest in preventing Saudi Arabia from striking a deal with Israel and their mission seems to be accomplished as the Saudi-Israeli deal has been put on hold. Economic incentives: Iran, battered by sanctions, is in need of economic investments. Saudi Arabia, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s leadership, sees an opportunity to invest in Iran. Riyadh’s finance minister even mentioned the possibility of rapid investments into Iran, which could provide a much-needed boost to the Iranian economy. Regional security: Saudi Arabia has faced threats from Houthi rebels in Yemen, who receive support from Iran. Mohammed bin Salman is likely hoping that Raisi can help mitigate these security concerns and maintain stability in the region. Wider regional influence: Iran’s proxies hold substantial influence over the regional conflicts and their actions can either escalate or de-escalate tensions. The Saudi Crown Prince, who envisions a future with an oil-free economy, seeks stability to advance his ambitious economic plans. Challenges for Saudi Arabia To understand the significance of this visit, it is essential to revisit the historical context. The United States had long played the role of guarantor for Saudi Arabia’s security in the region. However, this trust has eroded over time, as the US struggles to exert its influence, particularly during conflicts like the recent Gaza crisis. The US has been perceived as an unreliable guarantor of regional security. With this backdrop, West Asian countries, including Saudi Arabia, have realised the need to take charge of their own security and regional conflicts. Decisions like welcoming Syria back into the Arab League and President Raisi’s visit to Riyadh reflect this realisation. As these countries begin to depend less on external guarantors for their security, the future of West Asia is uncertain, but one thing is clear: it will be shaped by the region’s own decisions and initiatives. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.