Vantage | COP28 may not turn the tide on climate change but it's our only bet

Which is the most important building in the world? You may think of the White House, the Kremlin, or the Indian Parliament. But you would be wrong. As of this week, the most important building is the Dubai Expo Centre. Thousands of delegates have descended upon this building to save the world—to strike unanimous agreements on how to save the planet. Dubai is hosting the COP 28 summit. COP stands for Conference of the Parties; it includes every member of the UN climate framework, established in 1992. It is the 28th summit of this COP. COP 27 was held in Egypt last year. The vibe here, as they say, is mixed. The young Gen Z activists look optimistic. But the veteran bureaucrats look more circumspect. They’ve been to this rodeo before. They know what happens here is all about political will.

So who’s attending this time? Well, it’s easier to say who is not. US President Joe Biden is not coming. Neither is his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Both men have sent their climate envoys instead. It’s a very poor message to the world. The US and China are the two biggest polluters in the world. But their presidents are a no-show. This tells you how much importance they give to this summit. Does that mean the summit is pointless? Of course not. Some 70,000 delegates are expected to attend COP28. They will come from 200 or more countries. The summit will run from November 30 to December 12. But don’t be surprised if the talks are extended. In Egypt last year, the negotiations ran for two extra days. Chances are, we could see a repeat. Agendas COP28 is all about two major issues. The first is the global stock take. Think of it as a routine assessment programme. In 2015, countries signed the Paris agreement. They agreed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius. So now, it’s time to take stock. To see how well, or how bad the world is doing. Spoiler alert! We are doing bad. At the current rate, global emissions will fall 2 per cent by 2030. But to hit the Paris target, they should fall by 43 per cent. So the world is a long way off. The second issue is that of Loss and Damages. Basically, who will pay for all the climate related destruction? Just consider Pakistan. The country makes up just 1 per cent of all emissions since the industrial age, but recently, super floods have ravaged the country. While the floods are not new, their scale has been multiplied by climate change. And the damages? Up to 30 billion dollars. At COP27 in Egypt, countries agreed to create a fund to support such countries. Just one problem: We haven’t seen the money yet. The Global South wants rich countries to foot the bill. At least 100 billion dollars by 2030. After all, it’s their pollution that brought us here. But rich countries are reluctant. They say that it is now a common responsibility. This rich versus poor debate is a common theme for every COP. So expect the same fireworks here. There is also the issue of fossil fuels and here in the UAE, it’s all the more important. At the last COP summit, countries agreed to phase out coal. So naturally, this time, they are expected to phase out fossil fuels. But a lot of that depends on the host country. The UAE produces four million barrels of oil every day. Oil makes up more than 35 per cent of their total revenue. So will they agree to phasing out oil? Logic says they won’t. But don’t underestimate the pressure of a COP summit. Recent reports have been worrying. They suggest the UAE tried to use the COP summit to strike oil and gas deals. If true, they represent a conflict of interest. But even so, it could be the best bet. The oil and gas industry makes up 75 per cent of all greenhouse gas emissions. So without them, you cannot cut down pollution. You need their support and money. Especially now, 2022 was a blockbuster year for big oil companies. They booked 200 billion dollars in profits. Governments need to convince them to invest some of that in green energy. If not, the clean pivot will be delayed. 2023 may be the hottest year on record Much of the results here in Dubai, will depend on the leadership. On what sort of concessions the rich countries are willing to make. But time is of the essence – 2023 is on track to be the hottest year on record. It’s become a yearly trend now. Every year is becoming the hottest on record. We have seen super floods, biblical droughts and supercharged typhoons. The 1.5 degree global warming target is all but gone. So the UN is rightly worried. They have asked world leaders to stop dawdling and start doing. But we wish them good luck. The biggest issue is probably trust. There is none left among the public. We have seen the commitments of the Paris agreement being ignored by world leaders. So why should anyone trust what happens here in the next 10 days? It’s a legitimate question that many young people have. Since climate commitments are non-binding, governments are dragging their feet. Rich countries are in no hurry to fund climate action. So the expectations are low at this COP summit, which is ironic, since their job is literally to save the world. There is also the issue of politics. You would think a global existential crisis would make politicians keep their differences aside. Well, think again. Next year’s COP summit doesn’t even have a host. Technically, it’s supposed to be held in Eastern Europe. But amid the war in Ukraine, Russia says they won’t allow it. Tells you how precarious things are. The world is already off track when it comes to climate action. It cannot afford political delays and geopolitical standoffs. But such is the background of every COP – politics, double standards and low expectations. It may not be the best bet to tackle climate change, but right now, it’s the only one. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.