Vantage | 17 days of Hamas-Israel war explained in 5 questions

After 17 days of war, things are getting worse. Israeli airstrikes continue on Gaza yet, there is no sign of the ground invasion. The troops are ready, the machinery is ready but the green signal hasn’t come.

Let’s look at five questions that will help explain where this conflict stands right now. Question 1: What is happening in Gaza? What is the situation inside Gaza? In two words - really bad. Israel claims to have struck 320 targets in 24 hours. This includes Hamas launchpads and command centres. They also released footage of these attacks. Of course, it wasn’t just Hamas targets: a number of civilian targets were also hit. Like in Khan Younis, a city located in southern Gaza just about 15 kilometres from the border crossing at Rafah. Technically, it’s a safe zone but on Sunday, it was pounded. People there called it the worst night since the war began. “We were told that Khan Younis is considered to be a safe place, and everyone came here from the north or from Gaza city because it is considered safe but unfortunately last night was the hardest night so far we saw in Khan Younis," says Gazan in Khan Younis, Tarek Salout. The death toll keeps rising, it has crossed 5,000 in Gaza and reports say around 40 per cent of the fatalities are children. Injuries are also rising. More than 15,000 Gazans are wounded. Hospitals there have been over-run by patients. That brings us to aid. The good news is that aid is moving. Around three aid convoys have entered the Gaza strip and more trucks should follow soon. The bad news is that it’s nowhere enough. The UN says the current aid is just 4 per cent of the pre-war average. Question 2: What is Israel’s next move? Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a busy weekend. He first visited Israel’s border with Lebanon and spoke to soldiers stationed there. He broadly outlined his plan for Gaza. “We’re in a battle for our lives, a battle for our home. This is not an exaggeration, this is the war. It’s do or die. They need to die. And we are now in a double battle: one battle is a battle to hold action here and on the other side, to win there, an absolute victory that will erase Hamas,” he said. A battle to erase Hamas and end its rule in the Gaza strip, that seems to be Israel’s endgame here. Of course, this means invading by ground. Hamas has taken up positions deep inside Gaza and you cannot flush them out with air strikes alone. A ground operation will be necessary. The question is, when will it start? After visiting the northern border, Netanyahu convened his war cabinet. All his top officials were present - the army chief, the Mossad chief, and the Shin Bet chief - they hold the key to the next stage of this war. A few limited raids have already been carried out in Gaza. Israeli soldiers entered several metres into Gazan territory. Their mission? Find hostages and drive out terrorists. Hamas fired back at the Israelis, and they claim the IDF soldiers fled the area. Now, this wasn’t a full-scale incursion, but it was a sneak peek. “In Gaza, IDF forces raided Gaza today, close to the border, as part of the effort to prepare the space for an attack following information on the missing and abducted, a top priority national mission. During one of the raids, an IDF fighter was killed, and three fighters were wounded,” said IDF spokesperson Rear Adm Daniel Hagari. The real invasion could be much uglier. Israel has talked about a long and tough war and on Sunday their defence minister mentioned a vague timetable. He said it could take one, two or three months. Whichever it is, their objective is clear - remove Hamas from Gaza. Frankly, Israel doesn’t have a choice. After the brutality of Hamas’s attack, no country can let them stay in power. But how they do it is a different issue. Question 3: What are Israel’s allies up to? Well, the solidarity visits continue. On Saturday, Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni visited Israel. On Monday, the Dutch prime minister came visiting and today French President Emmanuel Macron is going. But is that solidarity equal to support? At first, Western leaders gave Israel a long rope but that seems to be changing. They haven’t used the word ‘ceasefire’ yet but all the indications are there. Meloni warned Israel against falling into what she called ‘Hamas’s trap’. “This was the real objective of the Hamas attack: not to defend the right of the Palestinian people, but to force a reaction against Gaza that would undermine any attempt at dialogue and create an unfillable gap between Arab countries, Israel, and the West, and I don’t believe we can fall into this trap, it would be very, very stupid,” she said. Meanwhile, the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called for a humanitarian pause. “Personally, I think that a humanitarian pause is needed in order to allow the humanitarian support to come into and being distributed. Think that half of the population of Gaza has been moving from their houses,” he said. Leaders of the West also held a virtual meeting on Sunday. It was attended by six leaders - Joe Biden of the US, Justin Trudeau of Canada, French President Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. At the end of it, they released a joint statement: “The leaders reiterated their support for Israel and its right to defend itself against terrorism and called for adherence to international humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians. So, support is still there but it’s not endless support. What explains this change in stance? Our next two questions will answer that. Question 4: What’s the situation at Israel’s northern front? Much more tense. Israel has struck 20 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. They also hit airports in Syria’s Damascus and Aleppo. Both airports were shut down. The exchanges are more frequent now. Israel has also evacuated border cities and is preparing for the worst. If Hezbollah joins the war, things could spiral out of control. Netanyahu warned them against it. He said Israel would hit back with “unimaginable force”. So, that is a major worry, a wider war will draw in Western countries, it will also increase oil prices. Western leaders are keen to avoid that. Question 5: What’s been the global response? Well, pro-Palestine protests continue. Last week, you read about demonstrations in the Muslim world. The same thing is happening in Western cities too. In Denmark, hundreds gathered in their capital Copenhagen, they held up Palestinian flags and shouted slogans, they marched to the Danish parliament in solidarity. Same in Boston: hundreds of protesters gathered at the city’s Copley Square, they had posters saying ‘free Palestine’. In Germany, things got a bit violent. There was an unauthorised pro-Palestine rally in Berlin, the police had to break it up eventually and arrest several protesters. In Paris, around 15,000 protesters turned up, some of them climbed up to statues and waved Palestinian flags. Unlike the rally in Berlin, this was authorised. If you thought that was big, wait for London. 100,000 pro-Palestine protesters marched through the British capital, they held up banners and chanted slogans against Israel. These protests will have an impact. We’ve already seen countries drawing red lines for Israel. Even India said civilian casualties are a concern. New Delhi has also shipped aid to Gaza. An Indian Air Force plane landed in Egypt on Sunday carrying 6 tonnes of medical aid and 32 tonnes of relief materials. So, the ball is now in Israel’s court. If they push further, they could lose foreign support and if they don’t push, they could lose domestic support. There are no easy choices here. But in war, there rarely is. 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