 "Uttar Pradesh poll results: How the margin of victories calls the EVM manipulation bluff")
The results of 18th Assembly election of Uttar Pradesh have bulldozed numerous tall claims, and hence, to justify them several conspiracy theories have been floated up. The concealment of mandate through EVM manipulation has been dominated since the 2017 election, but this time tampering in the electoral roll has been added. It is alleged that locally names of supporters of Opposition parties were strategically eliminated from the electoral roll, and hence, the Opposition parties lost many seats with narrow margins. To support this, numerous images have been circulated on social media claiming that the margin of victory between the incumbent BJP and the challenger SP has been below 2,000 votes on so many seats. The claims about the number of such seats have been varying.
Although the electoral roll tampering allegation cannot be verified at this stage, claims about the margin of victories can be analysed easily. Based on the constituency wise trend of election result data of the Election Commission of India (ECI), I analyse the margin of votes of various parties.
Margin of Victory Below 2,000
Figure 1 shows the party-wise margin of victory of candidates. There are 29 candidates who have won the election with a margin below 2,000, out of which 18 candidates have been from the BJP and its allies whereas 10 candidates have been from the SP and its allies. One candidate has been from the Congress.
Figure 1: Party-Wise Victory Margin of Candidates
Table 1 provides information about the top 10 candidates who have won the election by a narrow margin. Among all candidates Ashok Kumar Rana of the BJP has defeated Naimul Hasan of the SP with a narrowed margin of votes (203) in the Dhampur constituency of Bijour district, followed by Sakendra Pratap of the BJP in the Kursi constituency of Barabanki district. Pratap has defeated Rakesh Kumar Verma of the SP; Rakesh is son of late Beni Prasad Verma, the stalwart Kurmi leader of Uttar Pradesh.
Table-1: Top 10 Candidates Winning with Narrowest Margin of Votes
| Constituency | Const. No. | Winner Candidate | Winner Party | Runner Candidate | Runner Party | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dhampur | 20 | ASHOK KUMAR RANA | BJP | NAIM UL HASAN | SP | 203 |
| Kursi | 266 | Sakendra Pratap | BJP | Rakesh Kumar Verma | SP | 217 |
| Chandpur | 23 | SWAMI OMVESH | SP | KAMLESH SAINI | BJP | 234 |
| Nehtaur | 21 | OMKUMAR | BJP | MUNSHIRAM | RLD | 258 |
| Ram Nagar | 267 | FAREED MAHFOOZ KIDWAI | SP | SHARAD KUMAR AWASTHI | BJP | 261 |
| Isauli | 187 | MOHD TAHIR KHAN | SP | OM PRAKASH PANDEY | BJP | 269 |
| Bilaspur | 36 | Baldev Singh Aulakh | BJP | Amarjeet Singh | SP | 307 |
| Baraut | 51 | KRISHAN PAL MALIK | BJP | JAIVEER | RLD | 315 |
| Nakur | 2 | MUKESH CHOUDHARY | BJP | DR. DHARAM SINGH SAINI | SP | 315 |
Margin of Victory Above 1 lakh Vote
Figure 1 further reveals that there are 11 Assembly constituencies where the margin of victory has been more than one lakh votes. All such constituencies have been won by the BJP candidates. Table 1 provides further description about such candidates. Sunil Kumar Sharma of the BJP has defeated his rival Amarpal Sharma of the SP with the highest margin of votes (214,835) in the Sahibabad constituency of Ghaziabad district. Pankaj Singh, son of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, is at the second position defeating his rival with the highest number of votes. The name of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath also figures in this list, and his name is at the 10th position.
Table 2: Winning Candidates with Victory Margin of More than 1 Lakh
| Constituency | Const. No | Winner Candidate | Winner Party | Runner Candidate | Runner Party | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahibabad | 55 | SUNIL KUMAR SHARMA | BJP | AMARPAL SHARMA | SP | 214835 |
| Noida | 61 | Pankaj Singh | BJP | Sunil Choudhary | SP | 181513 |
| Dadri | 62 | TEJPAL SINGH NAGAR | BJP | RAJKUMAR BHATI | SP | 138218 |
| Meerut Cantt. | 47 | AMIT AGARWAL | BJP | MANISHA AHLAWAT | Rashtriya Lok Dal | 118072 |
| Agra North | 89 | PURUSHOTTAM KHANDELWAL | BJP | SHABBIR ABBAS | Bahujan Samaj Party | 112370 |
| Mehroni | 227 | Manohar Lal | BJP | Kiran Ramesh Khatik | Bahujan Samaj Party | 110451 |
| Mathura | 84 | SHRIKANT SHARMA | BJP | PRADEEP MATHUR | Indian National Congress | 109803 |
| Lalitpur | 226 | Ramratan Kushwaha | BJP | Chandra Bhusan Singh Bundela (Guddu Raja) | Bahujan Samaj Party | 107215 |
| Ghaziabad | 56 | Atul Garg | BJP | Vishal Verma | SP | 105537 |
| Gorakhpur Urban | 322 | ADITYANATH | BJP | SUBHAWATI UPENDRA DUTT SHUKLA | SP | 103390 |
| Hathras | 78 | ANJULA SINGH MAHAUR | BJP | SANJEEV KUMAR | Bahujan Samaj Party | 100856 |
Battle for the Second Position
Figure 2 provides a description about the number of seats each political party acquired at the second position. The figure reveals that the SP candidates acquired the highest number (223) at the second position in the electoral contest, followed by the BJP candidates (115). The most interesting revelation is about the BSP which trails RLD even at the second position. Nineteen RLD and 18 BSP candidates are at the second position.
Figure 2: Political Parties at the Second Position
The analysis of the margin of votes of winners and runners-up reveal that the name of BJP candidates not only figure in the list of candidates winning with narrowest margin of votes, but also highest margin of votes. The Opposition needs to work not only in those constituencies where the victory margin is narrow, but also where the victory margin is widest.
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