US-led Gulf rail link plan is a game-changing geoeconomic project, and India must grab the chance with both hands

India is bang in the middle of tectonic geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts sweeping across West Asia and the Arabian Peninsula. New opportunities are being created, and New Delhi appears well-placed to seize them. This, however, is neither fortuitous nor a turn of fortune. Since assuming office in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has broken old shibboleths and spent massive diplomatic capital in building new and strengthening old partnerships. He has vigorously scaled up engagement with key actors in the Arab Gulf region. The last few years have seen civilizational ties with the Gulf transforming into strong strategic and economic alliances and traditional relationships rapidly expanding into areas of defence and security. India’s careful navigation of regional disputes through an unobtrusive and non-biased approach has earned admiration and reinforced New Delhi’s role as a stakeholder in regional stability. The amity that the Modi government has accumulated has not gone unnoticed in Washington. As it battles accusations of withdrawal and disengagement from the Middle East after decades of heavy diplomatic lifting, and as its role transforms gradually from security provider to “offshore balancer” (as professor Stephen M Walt and scholar Mohammed Soliman have variously noted), the United States needs a new grammar to engage with the region, and India comes across as the perfect partner in this endeavour. On 7 May, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan met his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval and UAE NSA Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Saudi Arabia. They were hosted by Saudi prime minister and crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). The discussion among the newest West Asian ‘Quad’ members, as it were, centred on advancing their “shared vision of a more secure and prosperous Middle East region interconnected with India and the world”, according to a White House readout. Buried in the diplomatese is a momentous development with far-reaching consequences. Reports indicate that an idea that germinated during I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, US) forum meetings over the last 18 months is nearing fruition. It involves, among other things, an ambitious initiative led by Washington to link Arab countries in the Levant and the Gulf via a major infrastructure project — comprising a substantial and intensive network of railways, maritime lanes, seaports, and roads — to the Indian subcontinent using New Delhi’s expertise in pulling off such complicated enterprises. Though official details are sparse, a closer look at a key speech delivered by Sullivan at an event in Washington on 4 May provides vital clues. Among several important points made by Sullivan while highlighting America’s new approach towards the Middle East (West Asia), notable are the ones that acknowledged India’s key role in formulating the new strategic synergies. In his keynote address at the Washington Institute for New East Policy, a few days before his visit to Saudi Arabia, Sullivan had said: “This weekend I’ll be in Saudi Arabia for meetings with its leadership, and my UAE and Indian counterparts will come to Saudi Arabia as well for meetings so that we can discuss new areas of cooperation between New Delhi and the Gulf as well as the United States and the rest of the region, fueled in part by the comprehensive economic partnership signed last year between India and the UAE. And this can help us carry forward some very tangible initiatives that we think will be unlike anything that we have seen in the region in recent years.” In bringing West Asia and the Indian subcontinent (South Asia) closer, while the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and the UAE has played a major part. No less significant has been the formulation of the I2U2 framework. The foundation of the grouping lay in Abraham Accords that normalized the relations between Israel and Arab nations, yet that alone has not been the reason behind its success. The increasing alignment of strategic interests between India and the Arabian nations, as well as New Delhi’s simultaneous formalisation of ties with Israel while being mindful of Arabian sensitivities, have been game-changing. It is to the Modi government’s credit that it managed to achieve this complex diplomatic manoeuvre. Sullivan acknowledged this reality when he said that the I2U2 connects “South Asia to the Middle East to the United States in ways that advance our economic technology and diplomacy,” and hinting at future developments, he said, “and we’ve already got a number of projects underway and some new exciting steps that we’re looking forward to undertaking in the months ahead.” Axios, the American media outlet that first reported the development, observed that the project is one of the “key initiatives the White House wants to push in the Middle East as China’s influence in the region grows.” That Washington is spooked by China’s inroads into West Asia is clear. Two concomitant shifts have added to American insecurities. While Washington’s relationship with Saudi Arabia has gone steadily south, the kingdom has simultaneously settled for a China-brokered peace deal with arch-nemesis Iran — upending the regional power alignment and indicating the level and reach of China’s global ambition. Beijing’s audacious move not only exploits the void left by Washington’s pivot away from the region, but also gives China a firm diplomatic toehold in a West Asia where it has burgeoning economic interests. Washington’s problems appear manifold. Its pivot away from West Asia was necessitated by increased attention in the Indo-Pacific where it seeks to deny China the primacy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, meanwhile, has stretched its attention and resources. While the US is in no mood to leave a region where it enjoyed primacy until recently and hand China the strategic advantage, to match its global priorities with commitments in West Asia, however, it must figure out a new framework that allows it to ‘walk and chew gum at the same time.’ It is in this context that it finds an invaluable partner in India, with whom Washington is deepening strategic alignment across multiple domains and theatres. That explains the dovetailing of American and Indian interests in tangible initiatives in the Gulf and the visible policy synergy. Sullivan, for instance, had a separate meeting with Doval in Saudi Arabia where “bilateral and regional matters” were discussed, and decisions taken in their last meeting on February 1 were reviewed. Sullivan is scheduled to meet Doval again on 24 May on the sidelines of the Quad Leaders’ Summit. Meanwhile, foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra will fly to Washington in June for the inaugural ‘strategic trade dialogue’ to implement the outcomes of the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology, reports Hindustan Times. As Doval and Sullivan meet multiple times in a brief span, so will their bosses. Modi and Joe Biden are slated to meet several times in a matter of weeks. The prime minister is flying to Hiroshima for the G7 summit from May 19-21 where he will run into the POTUS. The duo may meet again at Papua New Guinea where Modi is going on a maiden trip from 21-23 May. The Quad Leaders’ meeting in Australia is next on May 24, while Biden has invited Modi for a state visit to Washington DC in June. The intensifying engagement between India and the US at various levels, including the highest, and that too marked by remarkable consistency, points to the fact that both sides are aware of China’s increasing influence in the region and the emerging geopolitical realities that necessitate an interwoven response. While India gets prestige and opportunity, it allows Washington more breathing space. That’s why Sullivan said in his address that “a more integrated, interconnected Middle East empowers our allies and partners, advances regional peace and prosperity, and reduces the resource demands on the United States in this region over the long term without sacrificing our fundamental interests or our involvement in the region.” If the plan goes through, India stands to benefit from the incipient possibilities. The goodwill and trust that it enjoys in the kingdoms of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, major players that are driving this churn, is already evident from the fact that New Delhi is the preferred partner for the peninsula’s economic transformation. As Mohammed Soliman, scholar at the Middle East Institute, writes in Al-Monitor: “The Middle East plays a crucial role in the global economy, not only as an energy source, but also as a critical hub for maritime trade between Europe and the Indo-Pacific. However, the infrastructure connecting Arab nations is currently insufficient. The proposed transportation network, in collaboration with India and the Gulf states, could improve interconnectivity and transform regional economies.” While embarking on this drive, India will also get the chance to enhance its reputation, get over Pakistan’s obstructionism in bringing West Asian states nearer to its geography, deliver connectivity and security (in partnership with the US) to a region that is entangled in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and tap into new openings for trade and commerce. The possibilities are endless, but so are the chances of slipping up. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.