India-US defence deal: Washington must realise benefits of Delhi's strategic autonomy

Is the tide turning with the Grand Old Party itself voting against President Donald Trump’s tariff policy? Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and US President Trump himself are both suggesting that a framework trade agreement may be agreed upon between India and the US very soon. It would also probably reduce the punitive tariffs to no more than 15 per cent overall. But, with the mercurial Trump administration, one never knows till the signing and the drying of the ink.

While the 50 per cent trade tariffs on India persist in the meantime, one of the highest in the world, peppered with constant and diplomatically offensive pressure, a freshly minted agreement on defence cooperation offers unexpected hope. Is this a first step to the classic Trump rollback or just the sniff of a parcel of deals?

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Beneath India-China reset, structural faultlines still persist India-US defence deal signals strategic interests trump temporary frictions

The framework agreement signed at the Defence Ministers Meeting in Kuala Lumpur by Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and US Secretary for War Pete Hegseth was accompanied by many feel-good statements on the importance of the US-India defence relationship, the rule-based order, international maritime security, the Asia-Pacific and so on. But this was at the level of the defence ministers and offers a platform for a U-turn. Because the Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China is no longer a Trump administration priority. Neither is Quad, from all indications.

It does cover real-time intelligence sharing, but let us remember America refused GPS coordinates during the Kargil War. The formation of a joint task force for the Indo-Pacific, joint naval patrolling, technology transfer, and joint manufacturing of advanced military systems in India are all in the document.

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Beneath India-China reset, structural faultlines still persist

India-US defence deal signals strategic interests trump temporary frictions

It says America will manufacture drones and the F414 fighter engines in India with partial, if not full, technology transfer. Stryker armoured vehicles will begin to be produced in India in 2026. This one has been in the air for years, and meanwhile India has made a number of good armoured vehicles of its own.

The plan is to manufacture the 31 Predator drones on order in India by 2027. America will work with India on hypersonic missile technology by 2027. It will start developing KN engines in India, and by 2035 America will transfer complete 5th-generation fighter technology. Can all this be believed? Why did America decide to draw up such an agreement for the first time ever? Is India meant to cross over into the US camp in delight?

As far as India’s defence cooperation with the US towards its Aatmanirbhar programme and technology transfer needs goes, the possibilities have always been vague. This is particularly in contrast with its progress made with France, Israel, and Russia.

However, America is not enamoured with India’s policies of strategic autonomy in order to suit its own national needs. It prefers docile allies who do as they are told. So this is a persistent hindrance to the Indo-American relationship, unlike its progress with an apparently compliant Pakistan. Now the Americans are saying Pakistan is only useful for short-term goals. But how can one defence agreement turn a persistent, more or less anti-India policy on its ear? Americans have been good at saying one thing and doing another, rather like the Chinese. Written agreements mean little to both.

America is also busy finding ways to cooperate with China, as the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea demonstrates, after its attempts to bully it into submission failed.

With India, the same thing applies in the minor register; we too won’t be bullied, but India does not enjoy the points of leverage that China does. So America tends to renege on commitments with impunity and drag its feet generally. It does not want to lose India altogether from its sphere of influence and so keeps agreements like this one going. If it means business, it could start with delivering the F404 engines quickly for a start.

Purchases of American defence equipment by India, often necessary for their technology and quality, have to bear with interminable delays and sometimes renegotiations of cost. The American system has many barriers and checks that take time for high-technology equipment, not helped by America not being in a hurry to execute them on agreed timelines. America does not part with its codes for defence equipment and has been known to use them to cripple aircraft and other weapons at critical times.

Nevertheless, we do have several new defence deals on the anvil and ongoing, in addition to the $25 billion in American military equipment purchases made by India since 2007. Right now there is a $3.8 billion MQ-9B armed Predator drone on order for 31 of them, being executed for completion by 2029-30. They say these will now be made in India.

The last three of six Apache helicopter gunships are being flown over in a transport aircraft for the Indian Army after a long delay. The order for 99 GE F404-IN20 engines for the Tejas MK1A, executed in 2021 for $716 million, is proceeding very slowly after a two-year stoppage in supply.

Only four engines of the 99 ordered have been delivered so far. Another follow-on order for 113 engines worth $1 billion is being negotiated and is almost ready to be signed. Yet another order for hundreds of the GE F414 engine intended for the Tejas MK2, along with an 80 per cent technology transfer and manufacture in India, is also being negotiated. Is this defence agreement saying it is through? At what price? To be built in India starting when?

This snail’s pace in these orders and negotiations suggests a strategic dimension in which America is apparently not keen on seeing India make its own fighter aircraft any time soon. But perhaps it also wants to lure us away from the competition.

India is working on alternatives of its own manufacture for unmanned aerial vehicles, drones and fighters in collaboration with Safran of France, even as its fit-for-battle fighter squadrons are much below comfort levels.

India is also advancing a cooperation with Brazil for its Embraer C-390 Millennium transport aircraft in a possible barter deal for an equivalent value of Tejas fighter aircraft and Prachand helicopters.

A collaboration with Airbus is already ongoing for H125 helicopters and C295 military transport aircraft in partnership with the private sector Tata Group.

Russia is very eager to offer its latest Su-57E stealth fighter aircraft with full technology transfer and production in India in addition to the Sukhoi 30s made under licence in India with the Su-30MK1 largely customised to Indian needs.

Very recently India has signed an agreement with Russia to jointly produce medium-sized commercial aircraft, the SJ-100, with full technology transfer in India. The message to America is that India is clearly not restricted by American sanctions imposed on Russia. This again in the context of massive delays in supplying Boeing aircraft to the Indian aviation industry as well as quality concerns highlighted by the tragic Dreamliner crash in Gujarat.

India is already very successful with its Brahmos missiles jointly developed with Russia. It extensively uses the Russian S-400 air shield, with more sets on order. Other cooperation with the UK, Russia, Germany and France in the naval engines, propulsion units, nuclear engines, submarines and specialised naval ships is a precursor to more in commercial shipbuilding as a new thrust area. While American Cummins engines are used in our light Zorowar tanks, India is trying to develop its own as well.

So, it is clear that America is not India’s only mainstay, even as the Indian Aatmanirbhar defence industry is growing very fast and is reflected in more and more export orders as well.

Perhaps America realises these are favourable results of India’s strategic autonomy and wants to ensure it stays in India’s procurement and technology demand game.

In the overall scheme of things, however, and on the face of it, this 10-year defence framework agreement is most welcome.

The writer is a Delhi-based political commentator. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.