Upcoming G20 summit is about India claiming a seat at the high table

The upcoming G20 summit in New Delhi is crucial for India. More than external influencing, however, the final spectacle is aimed inward. Many experts have argued that the summit is getting a political rebranding to serve an electoral purpose for the current dispensation. This is stating the obvious. Politics is an indispensable part of life.

That said, we must temper any grandiose expectations from the summit. The reason is simple: multilateralism is fractured– it thrives only when great powers agree. International cooperation is possible when major powers implicitly accept the international pecking order.

Multilateralism in tatters

For the last four decades since Deng Xiaoping’s pragmatic reforms, China sweet-talked its way through to the top of the global economic system. The “ responsible stakeholder ” story convinced Western policymakers that the allure of riches would politically palliate Beijing. No wonder multilateralism flourished when Wall Street aligned with Zhongnanhai to generate massive cash flows.

However, the history of great power conflict shows that economic prowess generates political ambition. Under President Xi Jinping, Beijing has shown that it not only wants to be rich, but it also clamours for great-power status. This worries Washington.

The crisis in Ukraine has also dished us a stark reminder. The ferocity of the blade depends on the thickness of the wallet. Given Russia’s sputtering economy that is over-reliant on petrodollars, Western sanctions have further pushed Moscow to Beijing.

Leaving aside historical animosities, Moscow and Beijing deeply disdain Washington and the post-Cold War international order. Russia and China perceive Washington’s actions as unnecessary meddling in their spheres of influence. NATO’s growing presence in Europe or American warships near Chinese waters make Moscow and Beijing bristle with uneasiness. Therefore, the balance of power considerations demand Russia and China to make mutual peace.

The major powers have picked clear sides in the Ukraine war. There’s little gas in the tank for working together on unsexy issues like climate change, renewable energy, rising global debt and food scarcity. Therefore, betting money on multilateralism — during spells of great power rivalry — might not take one very far.

Great power rivalry is also turning the clock back on trade and economic cooperation. Mutual suspicion is forcing states to redefine their economic strategies and opt for strategic security over economic efficiency. States do not want to depend on others for goods that matter. From rare earths to semiconductors, self-sufficiency is the flavour of the day.

It is against this backdrop that India is hosting the G20 summit.

Bridging the North-South divide

New Delhi has signalled its willingness to become a “ true friend ” of the traditionally non-aligned countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The proposal to add the African Union as a member of the G20 is a recent example. However, India’s activism for the “Global South” is not to garner support against bloc politics– unlike the heydays of the “non-alignment” policy of yore. India now terms itself as a “ South Western power ” that is willing to court the US and Europe along with advocating the interests of the “Global South.”

Unlike a few years ago, India is now comfortable in engaging the Western world while simultaneously reaching out to its historic constituencies in the developing world. The South Block does not see a contradiction between the two. The efforts are complementary. Given India’s own and the broader developing world’s needs for investment capital and technology, maintaining robust ties with the West is an essential prerequisite.

This is not to say that the “Global South” does not have its fair share of historic qualms about Western chancelleries. Presently, given Washington’s weaponisation of the dollar against Moscow, the fear of unilateral sanctions runs deep in the developing world. This is where India’s role as a bridge to reconcile Western interests with the development agenda of the Global South comes in.

S Jaishankar, India’s external affairs minister, argues that the G20’s original mandate is global growth and development–issues that India has duly prioritised over the last year. Developmental issues like building digital public infrastructure, restructuring global finance, prompting sustainable lifestyles for the environment, refuelling global growth and accelerating sustainable development goals are some key goals outlined by India.

New Delhi is investing precious diplomatic energy in working with like-minded partners to conjure a consensus document for the summit – which is up in the air. Getting all players to agree on a common vocabulary has proved inconclusive till now. After all, consensus on the war in Europe has proved elusive in the G20 foreign ministers, finance ministers and trade minister’s meetings. These meetings have produced chair summaries, not consensus documents.

Russian President Putin has already declined to attend the final summit in New Delhi. Chinese President Xi Jinping is also likely to give the event a miss. Other leaders like Biden, Macron and Trudeau are expected to attend.

Economic forums like the G20 are poorly equipped to handle political and security complications. The G20 was created to sooth the economic trauma of the 1990s Asian financial crisis. Its primary mandate was to outline rules of the road for global financial governance. In other words, the G20 is primarily a forum for geo-economics. However, expecting geo-economics to function seamlessly in a climate of sharpening geopolitics is misplaced.

Given the national elections next year, Indian policymakers do not have the political liberty to accept it publicly — yet, deep down, they are moderating their expectations of the forthcoming G20 summit. Hard-headed pragmatism permeates New Delhi.

The meat of the matter is straightforward — the upcoming G20 summit is symbolic. More than solving intractable issues, the upcoming G20 summit is about India claiming a seat at the high table. It also reinforces the belief that New Delhi’s strategic posture has evolved from believing in the “power of argument to the argument of power.”

India’s championing of the “Global South” should be seen in this light. Bandying with developing countries to discuss shared problems is noteworthy. Such intentions reflect the compulsions of great-power politics. In such an atmosphere– when even resuscitating the Black Sea grain  deal  between Russia and Ukraine seems onerous — expecting great powers to sing from the same song sheet is a mighty ask.

Reimposing great faith in multilateral institutions like the G20 now would be unwise. This is not to argue that everyday issues like global debt, sustainability, or climate change are in any way unimportant. The irony is that they matter the most. However, we live in an imperfect world — where politics trumps economics, and power is the top currency.

Ved Shinde is a research assistant at the Asia Society Policy Institute, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._

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