Ukraine war: Are US and NATO seeking an Indian initiative to resolve the conflict?

Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Emine Dzhaparova recently visited India, the first such visit from the Ukrainian side post-commencement of the Russia-Ukraine war. The visit timings are important due to the following reasons:

• Probably both Russia as well as Ukraine are tired of fighting and battle getting somewhat stalemated.
• Ukraine’s hope to start winning the battles which got raised a month back has fizzled out largely. Bakhmut is a living example.
• The casualties suffered by both sides are too high to be sustained and ignored.
• There has been colossal destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine and it stands war-ravaged in a big way.
• While some initiatives and resolutions failed to stop the conflict initially, it was due to the approach of the US which has been using Ukraine merely as a front to weaken Russia beyond unacceptable levels and has also taken other NATO countries in its agenda of war.
• China has adopted ‘no limits’ friendship with Russia and is extending all possible support except military hardware. It has clearly stated recently that it will not supply military hardware either to Russia or to Ukraine.
• China has proposed a 12-point conflict resolution formula to include respecting the sovereignty,  ceasing hostilities,  resuming the peace talks,  resolving the humanitarian crisis, protecting the civilians and prisoners of war (POW), ensuring the safety of nuclear weapons,  reduction in strategic risks,  facilitating grain exports,  stopping unilateral sanctions, keeping industrial and supply chains stable and finally post-conflict reconstruction. These were outlined on the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict followed by a detailed discussion between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during the recently concluded visit of President Xi. The proposal found support from the Russian side but did not evoke any positive response from any other important stakeholder. More so, the proposal was merely a re-iteration of some of the well-known common principles as against any concrete proposal which was hoped to be found during mutual negotiation.
• The resolution of this conflict cannot take place unless the USA supports the proposal.

The proposal either from Russia or from China is not likely to be acceptable to the US and therefore the proposal has remained just a theoretical construct.

• India has been able to balance its relationship both with the US and Russia. There is growing acceptance by the US towards India’s role to find a solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.  The US also does not want to get committed in Ukraine beyond what it already has been as it will assist China to gain ground against Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific issues which are priority one concern for the US at the moment. The US considers India as one of the most important nations to checkmate China towards this aim of the US due to the natural convergence of interests. India is also adversely affected on its land borders with China where Chinese transgressions are continuing for close to three years now and there are no signs of a positive resolution.

Besides heading G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation(SCO) at the moment, India’s vaccine diplomacy and grain support have enhanced the trust of the world in the Indian thought process. Its growing economic might along with more effective politico-diplomatic overtures have not only made it an undisputed leader of the Global South but India is also rekindling hopes of peace and prosperity among various nations of the world. India has shown substantial statesmanship wherein it extended humanitarian aid to earthquake-hit Turkey despite Turkey aligning itself with the Pakistani agenda and undertaking multiple actions against India’s national interest. India’s arguments of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ and ‘Vishwaguru’ for the sake of humanity have been finding a genuine resonance amongst the nations. These are the qualities which have been referred to by Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Emine Dzhaparova during her speech in India. Ukraine is hoping that India will keep aside the biases and actions of Ukraine which were taken by Ukraine against the Indian national interests in the past and it will come forward to resolve the crisis as an Indian proposal will have the acceptance of US and Russia together which is key to this conflict resolution. As against this, the Chinese proposal has been seen as pro-Russian. It also lacks credibility due to China’s own agenda and not following these proposed points in context with its stand-off with India on the LAC. Chinese move to affect the economies of multiple countries in the world in the garb of liberal economic aid has become visible and a majority of nations understand the Chinese debt trap philosophy. Not only India, China has not been adhering to these proposed principles of conflict resolution even with its other neighbours as well. Good for India that the majority of countries in the world have been able to see through this  Chinese game of speaking something and doing exactly the opposite. China’s perseverance in conflict enlargement on the issue of Taiwan is strengthening every passing day. Leave aside its adverse reactions when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, it reacted equally strongly when Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen met Kevin McCarthy, the House Speaker of the US. China has been intruding into Taiwanese airspace at will besides doing live drills, firing and encirclement of Taiwan. When these activities turn into physical military action is anybody’s guess but definitely for the US, it is growing to become a serious issue. Multifarious exercises by the US with Japan and South Korea point towards this preparation should the conflict escalate. In such a situation, the US would like to manage Russia without opening a direct front and it is towards this that Ukrainians are trying to woo Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for participation in the conflict resolution. In addition to mediation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also appealed for humanitarian aid from India. Given the current predicament, a resolution initiative from the Indian side is both a challenge as well as an opportunity. Despite the attendant risks, India must venture into this field. The basis of the proposal could be somewhat similar to what we have been demanding from China. Though both the conflict constructs are different, the same could be fine-tuned based on what is acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine. Though it’s difficult to find an honourable strategy for both without sustained discussions, huge devastations of men and material need to be saved as early as possible and an Indian effort must be made.

The writer is a retired army veteran. Views expressed are personal. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .