Ukraine conflict: Precision weapons ensure windows of opportunity continue to exist in winter

Marshal Winter seems to have taken control of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and we are witnessing a reduced tempo as far as the intensity of operations is concerned as both adversaries seem to be in their respective corners akin to a boxing bout. There is no doubt that both sides have achieved some of their goals. But more importantly, both need to reflect on what went wrong and what lies ahead.

But while the weary adversaries may not be engaging in direct physical confrontations, the focus is now on ‘indirect fires’ both from the ground by long-range vectors and the air targeting key and critical infrastructure aimed at lowering the morale of the population.

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Russian attacks on power stations and infrastructure have left millions without electricity, heat and water. President Volodymyr Zelensky had said ‘Moscow would aim to make the last few days of 2022 dark and difficult’.

The weather-enforced pause has led to General Sergei Surovikin,   launching a vigorous aerial campaign that has destroyed much of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure – a civilian-centred tactic.

The Russians are utilising this period to consolidate their gains, build up the stockpiles of ammunition, carry out replacements of their fleet and keep the pressure on by engaging Ukraine with long-range vectors and the threat of escalating the conflict with the aim of renewing an offensive after the winter.

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The critical dependence of society on crucial and well-developed infrastructure and its vulnerability is what is the focus of this phase of the war. It is no longer military infrastructure solely that is being targeted by the Russians but mainly civilian infrastructure which forms the backbone of power generation.

Russian strikes on Ukrainian power stations will naturally affect the population in the winter but will also cost Ukraine. Foreign investors, after all, are unlikely to return to the country when there is unreliable power. Even if the attacks do not keep out investors, they will still prove economically costly for Kyiv by stopping the Ukrainian power exports that began in July 2022.

The Ukrainians hit back on New Year’s Eve by targeting a specific military target killing 63 Russian troops in Makiivka while the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence said the death toll is closer to 400. Ukraine’s military had launched six projectiles at the “provisional base” in the eastern city in Donetsk region using the HIMARS-guided rocket system. While two of the missiles were shot down by Russian Air Defences,” it added “but four struck the building”.

This attack has led to the highest number of deaths in a single incident since the war began 10 months ago. It is extremely rare for Moscow to confirm any battlefield casualties. But this was such a deadly attack, as per BBC’s Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg, that staying silent most probably wasn’t an option.

According to reports the victims were mainly mobilised troops, that is, recent conscripts, and that ammunition was stored in the same building as the soldiers, making the damage worse. The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said “up to ten units of Russian military equipment in Makiivka were damaged or destroyed during an attack, without specifying their nature”.

Renewed Russian missile and drone attacks across Ukraine followed. Multiple blasts rocked Kyiv and other areas of Ukraine on Saturday and through the night, wounding dozens. A Russian spokesman stated its New Year attacks targeted “the facilities of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine” that are involved in the production of drones.

“Storage facilities and launch sites” for the drones have also been destroyed, the Russian defence ministry said. “The plans of the Kyiv regime to carry out terror attacks against Russia in the near future have been thwarted.”

Russian drone strikes on Ukraine appear to have increased in recent days, with Russia launching attacks on cities and power stations across the country over the past three nights. President Zelensky said Ukrainian Air Defences had already shot down over 80 Iranian-made drones in the opening days of 2023.

Speaking from Kyiv in his nightly address, President Zelensky said Russia planned to “exhaust” Ukraine with a prolonged wave of drone attacks. “We must ensure, and we will do everything for this, that this goal of terrorists fails like all the others,” he said. “Now is the time when everyone involved in the protection of the sky should be especially attentive.”

Russian military commanders have been criticised over the attack, with some voices saying “Commanders must be held to account for allowing troops to concentrate in an unprotected building within range of Ukrainian rockets, where ammunition may also have been stored.” Sergei Mironov, a former chairman of the Russian Senate said that it was obvious that neither intelligence nor air defence had worked properly.

Grigory Karasin, a member of the Senate and former Deputy Foreign Minister, not only demanded vengeance against Ukraine and its NATO supporters but also “an exacting internal analysis”.

For the Russians, it is no doubt becoming increasingly difficult to explain these significant and multiple cracks in their capability which have earlier occurred with the sinking of the ‘Moskova’, and the explosion on the Kerch bridge.

The problems of conflict remain in the protection of valuable assets. Ammunition perforce lies in the open, however, certain safety precautions are always enforced, keeping the ammunition concealed and also maintaining a distance of troops from the ammunition.

The options vary from overhead hardened shelters to underground storage areas which are both concealed and hardened to withstand an attack, but during an offensive, such measures take time to be put in place and are not feasible due to the fluidity of operations.

Therefore armies are forced to resort to other measures to store and protect ammunition in the field. This includes concealing the ammunition by camouflage, protecting it with temporary or semi-permanent structures and then there are the safety measures regarding storage.

There are of course elaborate instructions on the subject. One of which involves safety distances and the creation of protective walls around the ammunition. Troops are located at a distance from major storage areas and there are also protective measures from ground and air threats. The latter includes air defence cover for vulnerable assets.

From the accounts coming in it seems that the concentration of troops was co-located or in close proximity to the ammunition being stored and there was not adequate dispersion. Sufficient dispersal to become an uneconomical target is the key. There is no doubt that the Russians need to work on their procedures and drills to ensure that such incidents do not reoccur.

In a previous article published regarding lessons drawn from the Ukrainian conflict, I stated “that there is no sanctuary in modern warfare. The enemy can strike throughout operational depth with long-range precision fires. Moreover, both countries had networks of agents in place to observe key targets and to update their command on the movement of troops and stores. The integration of human intelligence (HUMINT) with long-range precision-fires kill chains is critical. Survivability depends on dispersing ammunition”. The strike could not have been carried out without precise intelligence prior to using precision-guided weapons.

In this attack, there are reports emanating from the Russian Ministry of Defence, that the illegal mass use of mobile phones by the soldiers allowed the enemy to track and determine the coordinates of their location for the missile strike. The sophisticated use of technology is increasingly taking a lead role in the conflict.

As General Raj Shukla wrote in Russia – Ukraine War: The Conflict and it’s Global Impact; “Precision fire systems are the future and the critical role of long-range fires is instructive”. He also said “the Indian military needs to evaluate the entire challenge of precision weaponry and upgrade its capacities”.

The Ukrainians have no doubt shown resolve while fighting an existential war with support from the West. How Russian and Ukrainian military strategies evolve will dictate the future of the conflict. According to Colin Meisel writing in ‘War on the Rocks’, a shift toward a “ punishment strategy” is taking place, “that is, where one force seeks to inflict high costs rather than to outmaneuver or attrit opposing military forces”.

The persistent precision attacks on key infrastructure are an indicator of such a shift. However, what is evident is that the challenges of modern warfare are not easy to overcome. The tide of war no doubt takes unexpected turns.

The author is a retired Major General of Indian Army. Views expressed are personal.

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