Two months into Gaza conflict, red lines blur as concerns mount over long-term impact

There was a slight glimmer of hope during the seven-day temporary humanitarian truce from 24 to 30 November in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, that this truce could culminate into a lasting ceasefire. However, with Israel resuming its operations on 1 December in Southern Gaza with renewed force, the future presents a rather bleak picture for Gaza. Responding to the brutal Hamas terror attack on 7 October which killed 1,200 Israeli citizens including children, infants, women and the elderly, Israel regrouped quickly and unleashed a ferocious assault into Gaza, coined as ‘Operation Iron Swords’. In 49 days of the war, before the truce came into effect on 24 November, Israel conducted over 7,500 strikes by air and artillery and moved ground troops and tanks into Gaza, cutting off Northern Gaza completely. In this intense targeting, more than 12,500 Palestinian civilians, mostly women, children and the elderly lost their lives. Vowing revenge against Hamas, Israel was expected to unleash its full military potential to seek out and eliminate Hamas operatives, commanders, command centres etc. In the process, however,  Israel’s strikes on hospitals in Gaza, UN-run facilities, schools and refugee camps causing mass casualties of innocent civilians led to global outrage. Coupled with it was the complete blockade into Gaza restricting any critical humanitarian and medical aid from entering Gaza. WHO, UN Relief and Works Agency, UN Population Fund and UNICEF, in a joint statement on 4 November stated that almost 420 children are being killed or injured in Gaza every day. ICRC president Mirjana Spoljaric, on her visit to Gaza on 4 December expressed grief at the humanitarian suffering, stating “I have arrived in Gaza, where people’s suffering is intolerable. It is unacceptable that civilians have no safe place to go in Gaza, and with a military siege in place there is also no adequate humanitarian response currently possible”. In the current phase of war, Southern Gaza is bearing the brunt of Israeli attacks. In the six days since the truce failed on 1 December, Israel has already struck more than 700 targets in Southern Gaza. It has issued repeated warnings to people to move even more southwards, especially away from the city of Khan Younis where it suspects a major Hamas Command Centre. It may be recalled that Israel had similarly issued warnings to people in Northern Gaza in October, forcing around 1.1 million people to abandon their homes and move south. It also conducted specific and sustained operations in Al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City claiming that it was a major command and control centre of Hamas. Although Israeli forces did capture some weapons from the hospital and discovered entry into the underground tunnel network from the hospital compound, it could not conclusively prove its claims. It is now pinning its hope on the city of Khan Younis in southern Gaza to conclusively unravel and destroy Hamas’s command network. Ground forces too have moved in on 4 December to complement the air strikes as Khan Younis and other parts of Southern Gaza are being targeted and isolated. However, what is more important than the ongoing Israeli offensive in Southern Gaza, is what the expected end state of Gaza is. Is Israel planning to push out people from Southern Gaza too as it did in Northern Gaza? If yes, where will these three million people go if they escape alive? At the beginning of the war, most of the neighbouring Arab countries had stated that any kind of forced vacation of the population from Gaza was a red line and would not be accepted. When Israel asked people to move south from Gaza City, King Abdullah II of Jordan had said specifically on 18 October, “This is a red line … no refugees to Jordan and also no refugees to Egypt. This is a situation that has to be handled within Gaza and the West Bank”. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi echoed the same adding that if mass displacements take place, the Palestinian state that we are talking about and that the world is talking about will become impossible to implement. Observers are even calling this mass displacement ‘Second Nakba’ following on from the first Nakba which led to the displacement of over 7.5 lakh Palestinians after the 1948 Israel-Palestine War. To an objective observer, the red lines were violated the day the people in Northern Gaza were asked to evacuate en mass. With the same now happening in southern Gaza, the problem has become more acute. None of the neighbouring countries or any other Arab/Muslim nation is willing to take Palestinian refugees. There were some reports that Israel has prepared a contingency plan of vacating Gaza completely and keeping the displaced people in a small tented area in northern Sinai and Negev desert. What is even more disturbing is the rather ambivalent stance taken by the regional countries on the war. Apart from statements to condemn Israeli strikes on hospitals etc., no concrete and collective stand has been taken. Despite extraordinary Summits of OIC, Arab League, GCC etc., no clear word has come out from the region. There were reports of a recent suggestion from Qatar that the Arab nations should boycott by stopping oil and gas supplies to the world if the bombing of Gaza does not stop. No Arab country has offered any support to it yet. The 44th session of the GCC Supreme Council held in Doha on 5-6 December too hasn’t come up with any concrete reaction to the Israeli bombing in Gaza yet. All this only amplifies the sentiment that prevailed within the region before the war that the countries in the region were losing interest in the Palestine issue. If Gaza is completely overrun, Israel may be able to claim military victory over Hamas now that the entire territory over which Hamas governed is vacated. It may also remove the threat of any terror attack from Gaza into Israel forever as also render the underground tunnel network worthless. With Gaza gone, there would be only limited stretches of the West Bank left for Palestinians to claim as their homeland. Will this be sufficient enough for a viable two-state solution, is a huge question. Will eliminating terror threats from Gaza eliminate threats for Israel? The answer to both is clearly ‘No’. Reflecting on the same, on 3 December, French President Emmanuel Macron also stated that “there is no lasting security for Israel in the region if its security is achieved at the cost of Palestinian lives”. The anti-Semitic attacks across the world are increasing by the day. Mass protests have been held in support of Palestine across global capitals. Building upon the frustration of having lost the chance of an independent Palestine state, rogue attacks against Israeli citizens and Jews across the world could increase. Hamas may be defeated and maybe even eliminated but history suggests that ideologies like this do not die, especially if they enjoy external support. If not Hamas, another group could rise and take the fight to Israel. The continuing offensive in Southern Gaza only indicates the worst fears coming true in Gaza, total obliteration and depopulation of this strip. If Gaza is lost forever, so will the hopes of millions of Palestinians praying for their own independent nation. Two months into the war, there are no signs of a ceasefire or a negotiated settlement. Meanwhile, Israel continues to pound Gaza vowing to eliminate Hamas, with innocent people caught in the crossfire, and nowhere to go. The author is Assistant Director, MP-IDSA. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.