Turkish presidential polls: Erdogan may have an edge but the battle isn’t over yet

There are only a few days left for the presidential elections that will take place on 14 May 2023 in Turkey. As excitement grows with each passing day, survey companies are also working overtime on the elections. While many polling companies offer different interpretations of the election, it is certain that the race will be between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. Although there are many survey companies in Turkey, some of them have credibility issues due to their political affiliations. However, a few of them have managed to maintain their objectivity in this complex political atmosphere. Sinan Ogan may get 2 per cent of votes Four candidates — Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan — are competing in the highly anticipated presidential elections. Popular belief suggests that Ogan will come in last place, with a likely paltry share of not more than 2 per cent of the total votes. Ince may bag 6 per cent of votes Muharrem Ince, who was also a candidate in the last presidential election but lost to President Erdogan, predicts that the upcoming polls will go to a second round and that he will emerge victorious. However, surveys suggest he may not secure more than 6 per cent of the total votes. Although it is nearly certain that Ince is unlikely to pull off a miracle victory in the presidential election, he will still have an impact on the election with the votes in his favour. Both Ince and Kemal Kilicdaroglu are addressing the same mass of people, and if Ince receives more votes than Kilicdaroglu, it could ultimately end up helping incumbent President Erdogan retain his office. Winning candidate likely to receive 53 per cent votes There is no clear favourite in this presidential election, and the outcome of the head-to-head clash between President Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu is eagerly anticipated. According to survey companies, the estimated maximum vote share for the winner of the presidential election is 53 per cent. This suggests that the vote shares of the top two candidates are close to each other, making it difficult to predict the winner. Advantage Erdogan Currently, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is one step ahead in the polls as the election draws near. However, this does not guarantee his victory, as his rival, Kilicdaroglu, was leading in the polls a month ago. Erdogan has managed to gain the admiration of some people with his recent rally performances and increased promises. The writer is a correspondent and an author who works in Turkish media. He graduated from Istanbul University, Faculty of Communication. He is interested in foreign policy issues, especially in the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean, Atlantic and Eurasia. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.